Why the debate on small-scale farming and youth matters today? H i vos-IIED seminar Rural Youth today, Farmers tomorrow

1. Why the debate on small-scale farming and youth matters today? Hivos-IIED seminarRural Youth today, Farmers tomorrow Felicity Proctor 24 May 2012

2. Any debate on youth (rural and urban) and their future in farming must be set within the framework of demographic change in a given region/country, the prevailing agrarian structure, the nature of rural transformation including economic diversification and the pace of urbanisation Rural youth may aspire to a future outside of agriculture but does the reality look different? Can small-scale agriculture be a viable and attractive employment and livelihood option today and inter-generationally in particular in countries with high youth populations? Let us look at some of the figures

3. By 2050 the world’s population will be some 9.3b rising from 6.9b today – with differing regional trends The global demand for food is set to increase by some 70% Source: Based on United Nations, World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision

4. The world is urbanising and the proportion of people living in rural areas will decline. But the total rural population will continue to grow to 2020. In South-Central Asia and SSA the rural population will continue to grow up to 2025 and 2040s respectively Source: Based on United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects, the 2009 Revision in millions

5. Today the youth population (15-24 years) makes up one fifth of the total population – is the largest ever seen and will continue to grow in South-Central Asia and SSA. Eastern Asia is now beginning to see a steady decline Source: Based on United Nations, World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision in millions

6. Rural youth estimates indicate a decline in most regions – rapid and unprecedented in Eastern Asia although numbers will remain high in South-Central Asia and will continue to rise in SSA well into 2030s Source: Based on Van der Geest, 2010 (elaboration from United Nation, World Population Prospects, the 2008 Revision)

7. In summary • Significant regional and indeed country differences in rural population dynamics and youth trends. This requires different policies and approaches to youth employment including small-scale agriculture South Asia and in particular in SSA • Yearly cohorts of rural youth entering the labour market now and in the future are unprecedented • Securing a decent livelihood and employment for youth (rural and urban) must be central to the national and international agendas in all regions but is a particular a challenge for South Asia and SSA East Asia • The increasing dependency ratio (age-population ratio of those primarily ‘not in’ and those ‘in’ the labour force) and the decline in rural youth population is unprecedented

8. Youth unemployment and under-employment • Employment figures are unhelpful in understanding the nature of utilisation of human capital – in particular under-utilisation. They do act as a barometer • youth unemployment globally is approximately three times that of the adult population with significant regional variation (ILO, 2010) • Employment data is undifferentiated urban-rural • it is evident that rural youth face greater barriers to access employment including education than urban youth (Based on LMLS) • Rural youth tend to be ‘employed’ in more vulnerable occupations often agricultural and unpaid family work • Young rural women face additional barriers and may be limited to domestic/home working

9. An inability to find work, under-employment or work of drudgery which is not seen as valued by society and by youth peer groups – creates a sense of worthlessness among young people with all the potential negative consequences to the young people themselves and to society at large (ILO, 2010)

10. So where does agriculture fit within the picture?Agriculture presently represents 40% of the employment share in many regions of the developing and emerging economy worlds Employment shares in the agriculture sector in key regions (2009) Source: ILO, 2011b and authors’ calculations

11. And in absolute numbers - it is anticipated that agriculture will continue to be a major source of employment and will increase in some regions Source: Based on FAO (FAOSTAT) In millions

12. Even in countries in SE Asia with strong economic sectoral transformation – youth employment in agriculture remains high Youth employment in agriculture by age group in selected countries in South-Eastern Asia (ADB 2008)

13. But what is the reality of that agricultural employment and livelihood opportunity

14. Whilst there is much debate over definitions of small-scale farming - the sheer numbers and scale of operation matter. China and India account for some 193m and 118m farms below 10 ha, respectively. Thus it may be estimated that there are well over 500 million small-scale farmers in developing and emerging economies China (1997) India (2000) Source: FAO 2000 World Census of Agriculture

15. The reality of scale amongst small-scale farmersshould be of concern. In selected countries in SSA the top quarter of farmers access two or more hectares, often 50% or more have less than one hectare, and the bottom quarter access half a hectare or less. Benefits from market (livelihood) opportunities accrue to a minority of small-scale farmers Average land sizes of farmers by quartiles, in Eastern and Southern Africa (Jayne 2010)

16. This raises the question as to the absorptive capacity of the small farm sector to offer a decent livelihood to the burgeoning youth populations - in particular in SSA and South Asia For many millions of rural youth there is no other alternative than a livelihood in agriculture

17. So what do we know about the next generation? • Rural youth and agricultural youth are not the same • Young people in rural areas are not necessarily involved in agriculture - varies by region – caution not to generalise • Note e.g. massive rural labour outmigration in China • Youth living in urban localities can also be involved in agricultural activities • Young rural women face higher/ different barriers to decent work than young rural men • Large number of youth (SSA and South Asia in particular) remain trapped in poverty and low-productivity employment/ underemployment, typically with low levels of education and working in subsistence agriculture making the situation for young rural people particularly precarious

18. What our key informants told us ‘To marry a farmer is something families prefer their daughters not to do’ ‘If all else fails then go into farming’ – ‘a sign of failure’ ‘Need to change the mind set of society and policy makers [in favour of farming and agriculture]’ ‘Education and the media must play a role in improving the image of agriculture’ ‘Youth will (and do) go into agriculture when it offers real business opportunity…young entrepreneurs are emerging’ ‘If youth turn away from agriculture – who will farm?’ ‘There are specific challenges facing rural youth wishing to enter farming – these must be addressed’

19. A policy framework to support youth in agriculture • Small-scale farming and youth within the framework of wider economic transformation • For SSA and parts of South Asia development models cannot assume a standard industrial transformation. These regions may require a transformation model in which small-scale agriculture plays a central role inter-generationally • Employment /labour market policy must embrace agriculture • Call for a new debate on the future of small-scale farming, youth and agriculture • A longer term vision is required which includes alterative farming scenarios – owned by the rural and national populations • Set against an agreed vision - action is needed to remove barriers to accompany agricultural and small-farm transformation e.g. land reform, farming as a business, market access, etc • Recognise the heterogeneous nature of small-scale agriculture and that there are winners and losers in agricultural transformation • Maintain political commitment and adequate funding for rural transformation and agriculture • Support to rural development and transformation more widely and then the agriculture sector e.g. SSA CAADP+ , outcome of G8 and G20 etc • Put rural youth high on the policy agenda and invest in rural youth • Much rhetoric but little real action - build on initiatives e.g. ILO Youth Employment Network

20. A policy framework to support youth in agriculture • The agriculture inputs and agrifood supply chains - led mainly by private sector - offer new and expanding opportunities for youth employment /job creation • Changes in agrifood markets offer new and expanding employment opportunities – understand and support these • Support relevant skills and vocation training • Reinforce and foster the private sector as champions for small-scale agriculture and youth in agriculture • New business models to secure small-scale farming and a decent livelihood • Entrepreneurship training and apprenticeship - specific youth focus • Address the multiple constraints faced by youth/build on their energy and human capital • Land (including land transfer), credit, technology, market access, etc • Strengthen youth based institutions • Optimise on new technology (ICTs) • Generate evidence and monitor change over time to inform policy

21. Thank you Proctor, F. J. and V. Lucchesi (2012) Small-scale farming and youth in an era of rapid rural change. IIED/HIVOS, London/The Hague.