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Global Foresight – Impact Overview: World Future Society Toronto Meeting July 27 2012. Jack Smith, Telfer School of Management, University of Ottawa and TFCI Canada Inc. Ultimate Goal High and Sustainable Quality of Life.

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Global Foresight – Impact Overview:

World Future Society Toronto Meeting

July 27 2012

Jack Smith,

Telfer School of Management,

University of Ottawa

and

TFCI Canada Inc.


BUILDING PROSPERITY by CREATING INNOVATION & EXPLOITING CAPITAL ASSETS

Human Capital; SKILLS & IDEAS “Wetware “

(Educated & Healthy)

Foresight enables us to anticipate, develop & position our assets

  • High income per capita

  • Employment opportunities

  • Healthy and educated population

  • Clean environment

  • Safe places to live and work

  • Economic security for all citizens

Innovation Capital

“Software”

(Codified Knowledge & Technology)

5 Types of Capital Assets

Government Policy Role

  • Intergovernmental Relations

  • International trade/treaties

  • Federal/provincial/municipal

    Framework Policies

  • Environmental standards

  • Tax/regulatory/industrial policy

  • Fiscal/monetary management

  • Social policy

    Delivery of Services

  • Health/education/social welfare

  • Infrastructure, safety, security

Social Capital “Shareware”

(Institutions & Voluntary ,Virtual Organizations - Networks

New Wealth Creation

Physical Capital

“Hardware”

(Facilities & Buildings)

Natural Capital

“Bioware”

(Natural Resources & Environment)

  • Current Socio-Economic

  • Performance re:

  • Production Costs;

  • Job creation;

  • Trade balance

  • Foreign investment

  • Technology transfer

  • Productivity,

  • Growth

  • Innovation

Trends in the

Global Economy

  • Globalization Technological/

    communications change

  • Regional/global trade liberalization

  • Internationalization of business

  • World demographics

  • Shifts in Canada’s “ RUBRIC” relations

Future Socio-economic

Performance in the New-

Next Emerging Economy


Foresight analytics for innovation
Foresight Analytics for Innovation

  • Technology Readiness & Capability Assessment (TRCA); First examine the technologies for state of readiness and your own capability to drive them to development by filling gaps, adding knowledge and skills etc;

  • Prospective Applications & Opportunities Valuation (PAOP); application of foresight plus competitive intelligence-business analytics to determine best investments under uncertainty;

  • Innovation System Enablers & Scaffolding (ISES) ; e.g. venture capital; IRAP ; concierge role – CERC and coaching; managing for growth - what systemic elements need to be assured>?


Macro shaping trends
Macro Shaping Trends

  • Demographic, wealth shifts in West & world, BRICs-NICs – beyond boomers;

  • Mechanization of Intelligence – ambient networks & toward Singularity;

  • Global Anxiety – from Global Warming-Climate Change to Debt and Terrorism;

  • Miniaturization, Automation (robotics) & Socialization of Technology;

  • Globalization of Capital, Terror , Disease, Eco-Environment, Wealth Creation;

  • Anti-globalization of Biodiversity, Culture, Sustainability, Wealth Distribution;

  • De-Carbonization, Diversification of Energy Economy;

  • Harmonization - Standardization for Trade ;

  • Proliferation of Surveillance - Security in all domains;

  • Urbanization Migration, Multi-Culturalism of Populations;

  • Acceleration of Services as Economic Driver;

  • Smartness Transformationof Infrastructure Systems;

  • Intensification, Differentiation of Knowledge, Health & Wealth;

  • Virtualization, Digitization & Integration of: Business-Professions, Production, Communications, Entertainment, Education;

  • Convergence in technology applications: bio-info-nano-design (BIND) + eco-cogno/neuro capabilities- signalling new possibilities across multiple platforms

  • Performance and impact – increased analytical focus on systemic interventions; more interest in measurement, evidence in policy

  • Add your own


Implications for government led foresight
Implications for Government Led Foresight

  • More Governments (adopting, supporting, leading)

  • Critical Success Factors

  • Systemic Foresight with more

  • methodological diversity

  • Integrated Foresight - better

  • alignment with Policy Cycle

  • Measuring Foresight Impact





Measuring foresight impact
Measuring Foresight Impact

  • 2009-2011 meetings of the Govt Foresight Leaders Forum – Hartwell House UKFO; OECD Paris; Policy Horizons Canada;

  • Foresight Success Vignettes;

  • APEC Center for Technology Foresight – Bangkok International Advisory Board;

  • Special Issue of Foresight Volume 14 #1 February 2012; Foresight Impacts Around The World;(incl: Ian Miles, Ron Johnston, NISTEP, Calof & Smith, Riel Miller, Michael Jackson & more

  • September 2011: Foresight Impact Measurement Instrument TFCI Canada Inc.


A key recurring challenge has been how to demonstrate the value of foresight investments for government sponsors and stakeholders - who are mindful of accountability, value for government mandates and comparative cost-efficiency and cost-effectiveness with other prospective applications of limited government funds.


Foresight and Policy- value of foresight investments for government sponsors and stakeholders - who are mindful of accountability, value for government mandates and comparative cost-efficiency and cost-effectiveness with other prospective applications of limited government funds.

a Symbiotic Relationship

Foresight is varied and has many distinct stakeholders – so we need multiple measures to assess performance and measure impacts; The TFCI – Telfer School instrument relies upon 7 groups:

  • Roles that foresight plays for business, government and academia;

  • Benefits that can be realized by foresight sponsors, participants;

  • Critical Success Factors – how well designed, planned, aligned wit sponsors, clients knowledge opportunities etc.

  • Meta Measures – e.g. degrees of learning, awareness, exposure to new ideas etc.

  • Pre-Policy Measures – how foresight provides direction, insights, strategies for R&D, policy options- analysis;

  • Policy Support Measures – ways that foresight provides ongoing support for policies and their implementation;

  • Post-Policy Actions, Communications , where foresight helps ensure ongoing credibility, adaptiveness of policies.


Which roles are most important for your value proposition? value of foresight investments for government sponsors and stakeholders - who are mindful of accountability, value for government mandates and comparative cost-efficiency and cost-effectiveness with other prospective applications of limited government funds.

Which roles are most important for your value proposition?

  • Key Roles Perspective (R. Johnston)


Benefits Perspective (Yuan et al) value of foresight investments for government sponsors and stakeholders - who are mindful of accountability, value for government mandates and comparative cost-efficiency and cost-effectiveness with other prospective applications of limited government funds.


Critical Success Factors Perspective (1-4) value of foresight investments for government sponsors and stakeholders - who are mindful of accountability, value for government mandates and comparative cost-efficiency and cost-effectiveness with other prospective applications of limited government funds.


Critical Success Factors Perspective (5-8) value of foresight investments for government sponsors and stakeholders - who are mindful of accountability, value for government mandates and comparative cost-efficiency and cost-effectiveness with other prospective applications of limited government funds.


Building A Foresight Impact Measurement Framework  value of foresight investments for government sponsors and stakeholders - who are mindful of accountability, value for government mandates and comparative cost-efficiency and cost-effectiveness with other prospective applications of limited government funds.


Pre policy developmental measures
Pre - Policy Developmental Measures value of foresight investments for government sponsors and stakeholders - who are mindful of accountability, value for government mandates and comparative cost-efficiency and cost-effectiveness with other prospective applications of limited government funds.


Policy support measures
Policy Support Measures value of foresight investments for government sponsors and stakeholders - who are mindful of accountability, value for government mandates and comparative cost-efficiency and cost-effectiveness with other prospective applications of limited government funds.


Post policy implementation measures
(Post)Policy Implementation Measures value of foresight investments for government sponsors and stakeholders - who are mindful of accountability, value for government mandates and comparative cost-efficiency and cost-effectiveness with other prospective applications of limited government funds.


Highest lowest impacts 54 measures
Highest & Lowest Impacts – 54 Measures value of foresight investments for government sponsors and stakeholders - who are mindful of accountability, value for government mandates and comparative cost-efficiency and cost-effectiveness with other prospective applications of limited government funds.


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