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Global Foresight – Impact Overview: World Future Society Toronto Meeting July 27 2012. Jack Smith, Telfer School of Management, University of Ottawa and TFCI Canada Inc. Ultimate Goal High and Sustainable Quality of Life.

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Global Foresight – Impact Overview:

World Future Society Toronto Meeting

July 27 2012

Jack Smith,

Telfer School of Management,

University of Ottawa

and

TFCI Canada Inc.

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Ultimate Goal

  • High and Sustainable
  • Quality of Life

BUILDING PROSPERITY by CREATING INNOVATION & EXPLOITING CAPITAL ASSETS

Human Capital; SKILLS & IDEAS “Wetware “

(Educated & Healthy)

Foresight enables us to anticipate, develop & position our assets

  • High income per capita
  • Employment opportunities
  • Healthy and educated population
  • Clean environment
  • Safe places to live and work
  • Economic security for all citizens

Innovation Capital

“Software”

(Codified Knowledge & Technology)

5 Types of Capital Assets

Government Policy Role

  • Intergovernmental Relations
  • International trade/treaties
  • Federal/provincial/municipal

Framework Policies

  • Environmental standards
  • Tax/regulatory/industrial policy
  • Fiscal/monetary management
  • Social policy

Delivery of Services

  • Health/education/social welfare
  • Infrastructure, safety, security

Social Capital “Shareware”

(Institutions & Voluntary ,Virtual Organizations - Networks

New Wealth Creation

Physical Capital

“Hardware”

(Facilities & Buildings)

Natural Capital

“Bioware”

(Natural Resources & Environment)

  • Current Socio-Economic
  • Performance re:
  • Production Costs;
  • Job creation;
  • Trade balance
  • Foreign investment
  • Technology transfer
  • Productivity,
  • Growth
  • Innovation

Trends in the

Global Economy

  • Globalization Technological/

communications change

  • Regional/global trade liberalization
  • Internationalization of business
  • World demographics
  • Shifts in Canada’s “ RUBRIC” relations

Future Socio-economic

Performance in the New-

Next Emerging Economy

foresight analytics for innovation
Foresight Analytics for Innovation
  • Technology Readiness & Capability Assessment (TRCA); First examine the technologies for state of readiness and your own capability to drive them to development by filling gaps, adding knowledge and skills etc;
  • Prospective Applications & Opportunities Valuation (PAOP); application of foresight plus competitive intelligence-business analytics to determine best investments under uncertainty;
  • Innovation System Enablers & Scaffolding (ISES) ; e.g. venture capital; IRAP ; concierge role – CERC and coaching; managing for growth - what systemic elements need to be assured>?
macro shaping trends
Macro Shaping Trends
  • Demographic, wealth shifts in West & world, BRICs-NICs – beyond boomers;
  • Mechanization of Intelligence – ambient networks & toward Singularity;
  • Global Anxiety – from Global Warming-Climate Change to Debt and Terrorism;
  • Miniaturization, Automation (robotics) & Socialization of Technology;
  • Globalization of Capital, Terror , Disease, Eco-Environment, Wealth Creation;
  • Anti-globalization of Biodiversity, Culture, Sustainability, Wealth Distribution;
  • De-Carbonization, Diversification of Energy Economy;
  • Harmonization - Standardization for Trade ;
  • Proliferation of Surveillance - Security in all domains;
  • Urbanization Migration, Multi-Culturalism of Populations;
  • Acceleration of Services as Economic Driver;
  • Smartness Transformationof Infrastructure Systems;
  • Intensification, Differentiation of Knowledge, Health & Wealth;
  • Virtualization, Digitization & Integration of: Business-Professions, Production, Communications, Entertainment, Education;
  • Convergence in technology applications: bio-info-nano-design (BIND) + eco-cogno/neuro capabilities- signalling new possibilities across multiple platforms
  • Performance and impact – increased analytical focus on systemic interventions; more interest in measurement, evidence in policy
  • Add your own
implications for government led foresight
Implications for Government Led Foresight
  • More Governments (adopting, supporting, leading)
  • Critical Success Factors
  • Systemic Foresight with more
  • methodological diversity
  • Integrated Foresight - better
  • alignment with Policy Cycle
  • Measuring Foresight Impact
measuring foresight impact
Measuring Foresight Impact
  • 2009-2011 meetings of the Govt Foresight Leaders Forum – Hartwell House UKFO; OECD Paris; Policy Horizons Canada;
  • Foresight Success Vignettes;
  • APEC Center for Technology Foresight – Bangkok International Advisory Board;
  • Special Issue of Foresight Volume 14 #1 February 2012; Foresight Impacts Around The World;(incl: Ian Miles, Ron Johnston, NISTEP, Calof & Smith, Riel Miller, Michael Jackson & more
  • September 2011: Foresight Impact Measurement Instrument TFCI Canada Inc.
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A key recurring challenge has been how to demonstrate the value of foresight investments for government sponsors and stakeholders - who are mindful of accountability, value for government mandates and comparative cost-efficiency and cost-effectiveness with other prospective applications of limited government funds.
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Foresight and Policy-

a Symbiotic Relationship

Foresight is varied and has many distinct stakeholders – so we need multiple measures to assess performance and measure impacts; The TFCI – Telfer School instrument relies upon 7 groups:

  • Roles that foresight plays for business, government and academia;
  • Benefits that can be realized by foresight sponsors, participants;
  • Critical Success Factors – how well designed, planned, aligned wit sponsors, clients knowledge opportunities etc.
  • Meta Measures – e.g. degrees of learning, awareness, exposure to new ideas etc.
  • Pre-Policy Measures – how foresight provides direction, insights, strategies for R&D, policy options- analysis;
  • Policy Support Measures – ways that foresight provides ongoing support for policies and their implementation;
  • Post-Policy Actions, Communications , where foresight helps ensure ongoing credibility, adaptiveness of policies.
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Which roles are most important for your value proposition?

Which roles are most important for your value proposition?

  • Key Roles Perspective (R. Johnston)
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