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Global Foresight – Impact Overview: World Future Society Toronto Meeting July 27 2012. Jack Smith, Telfer School of Management, University of Ottawa and TFCI Canada Inc. Ultimate Goal High and Sustainable Quality of Life.
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Global Foresight – Impact Overview: World Future Society Toronto Meeting July 27 2012 Jack Smith, Telfer School of Management, University of Ottawa and TFCI Canada Inc.
Ultimate Goal • High and Sustainable • Quality of Life BUILDING PROSPERITY by CREATING INNOVATION & EXPLOITING CAPITAL ASSETS Human Capital; SKILLS & IDEAS “Wetware “ (Educated & Healthy) Foresight enables us to anticipate, develop & position our assets • High income per capita • Employment opportunities • Healthy and educated population • Clean environment • Safe places to live and work • Economic security for all citizens Innovation Capital “Software” (Codified Knowledge & Technology) 5 Types of Capital Assets Government Policy Role • Intergovernmental Relations • International trade/treaties • Federal/provincial/municipal Framework Policies • Environmental standards • Tax/regulatory/industrial policy • Fiscal/monetary management • Social policy Delivery of Services • Health/education/social welfare • Infrastructure, safety, security Social Capital “Shareware” (Institutions & Voluntary ,Virtual Organizations - Networks New Wealth Creation Physical Capital “Hardware” (Facilities & Buildings) Natural Capital “Bioware” (Natural Resources & Environment) • Current Socio-Economic • Performance re: • Production Costs; • Job creation; • Trade balance • Foreign investment • Technology transfer • Productivity, • Growth • Innovation Trends in the Global Economy • Globalization Technological/ communications change • Regional/global trade liberalization • Internationalization of business • World demographics • Shifts in Canada’s “ RUBRIC” relations Future Socio-economic Performance in the New- Next Emerging Economy
Foresight Analytics for Innovation • Technology Readiness & Capability Assessment (TRCA); First examine the technologies for state of readiness and your own capability to drive them to development by filling gaps, adding knowledge and skills etc; • Prospective Applications & Opportunities Valuation (PAOP); application of foresight plus competitive intelligence-business analytics to determine best investments under uncertainty; • Innovation System Enablers & Scaffolding (ISES) ; e.g. venture capital; IRAP ; concierge role – CERC and coaching; managing for growth - what systemic elements need to be assured>?
Macro Shaping Trends • Demographic, wealth shifts in West & world, BRICs-NICs – beyond boomers; • Mechanization of Intelligence – ambient networks & toward Singularity; • Global Anxiety – from Global Warming-Climate Change to Debt and Terrorism; • Miniaturization, Automation (robotics) & Socialization of Technology; • Globalization of Capital, Terror , Disease, Eco-Environment, Wealth Creation; • Anti-globalization of Biodiversity, Culture, Sustainability, Wealth Distribution; • De-Carbonization, Diversification of Energy Economy; • Harmonization - Standardization for Trade ; • Proliferation of Surveillance - Security in all domains; • Urbanization Migration, Multi-Culturalism of Populations; • Acceleration of Services as Economic Driver; • Smartness Transformationof Infrastructure Systems; • Intensification, Differentiation of Knowledge, Health & Wealth; • Virtualization, Digitization & Integration of: Business-Professions, Production, Communications, Entertainment, Education; • Convergence in technology applications: bio-info-nano-design (BIND) + eco-cogno/neuro capabilities- signalling new possibilities across multiple platforms • Performance and impact – increased analytical focus on systemic interventions; more interest in measurement, evidence in policy • Add your own
Implications for Government Led Foresight • More Governments (adopting, supporting, leading) • Critical Success Factors • Systemic Foresight with more • methodological diversity • Integrated Foresight - better • alignment with Policy Cycle • Measuring Foresight Impact
Measuring Foresight Impact • 2009-2011 meetings of the Govt Foresight Leaders Forum – Hartwell House UKFO; OECD Paris; Policy Horizons Canada; • Foresight Success Vignettes; • APEC Center for Technology Foresight – Bangkok International Advisory Board; • Special Issue of Foresight Volume 14 #1 February 2012; Foresight Impacts Around The World;(incl: Ian Miles, Ron Johnston, NISTEP, Calof & Smith, Riel Miller, Michael Jackson & more • September 2011: Foresight Impact Measurement Instrument TFCI Canada Inc.
A key recurring challenge has been how to demonstrate the value of foresight investments for government sponsors and stakeholders - who are mindful of accountability, value for government mandates and comparative cost-efficiency and cost-effectiveness with other prospective applications of limited government funds.
Foresight and Policy- a Symbiotic Relationship Foresight is varied and has many distinct stakeholders – so we need multiple measures to assess performance and measure impacts; The TFCI – Telfer School instrument relies upon 7 groups: • Roles that foresight plays for business, government and academia; • Benefits that can be realized by foresight sponsors, participants; • Critical Success Factors – how well designed, planned, aligned wit sponsors, clients knowledge opportunities etc. • Meta Measures – e.g. degrees of learning, awareness, exposure to new ideas etc. • Pre-Policy Measures – how foresight provides direction, insights, strategies for R&D, policy options- analysis; • Policy Support Measures – ways that foresight provides ongoing support for policies and their implementation; • Post-Policy Actions, Communications , where foresight helps ensure ongoing credibility, adaptiveness of policies.
Which roles are most important for your value proposition? Which roles are most important for your value proposition? • Key Roles Perspective (R. Johnston)
