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Societal-Systems Analysis: State Fragility and Political Instability

Societal-Systems Analysis: State Fragility and Political Instability. Monty G. Marshall Center for Global Policy George Mason University. Complex, Adaptive (Eco-)Systems All ecosystems are exposed to gradual changes…Nature is usually assumed to respond to gradual change in a smooth way.

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Societal-Systems Analysis: State Fragility and Political Instability

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  1. Societal-Systems Analysis:State Fragility and Political Instability Monty G. Marshall Center for Global Policy George Mason University

  2. Complex, Adaptive (Eco-)Systems All ecosystems are exposed to gradual changes…Nature is usually assumed to respond to gradual change in a smooth way. However…smooth change can be interrupted by sudden drastic switches to a contrasting state. Although diverse events can trigger such shifts, recent studies show that a loss of resilience usually paves the way for a switch to an alternative state. This suggests that strategies for sustainable management of such ecosystems should focus on [building and] maintaining resilience….Stability domains typically depend on slowly changing variables…These factors may be predicted, monitored, and modified. In contrast, stochastic events that trigger state shifts are usually difficult to predict or control. Marten Scheffer, Steve Carpenter, Jonathan A. Foley, Carl Folke, and Brian Walker. 2001. “Catastrophic Shifts in Ecosystems.” Nature 413 (11 October 2001), pp. 591 and 596.

  3. Precursors to Societal-System Failure (Context) • Society: coherence and cohesiveness • Networks – associational ties and interactions • Impediments: size (area, population), endowment, diversity, level of technologies • System: state formation and performance • Management – inclusive, representative, responsive, accountable (sociational vs. instrumental strategies) • Problems: capture, ignorance, incompetence, marginalization, polar factionalism • Prospects: Risk and Resiliency

  4. Polar (Macro-)Factionalism:Insights to Political Dynamics Democracy-Predominate System

  5. The Polity dualistic authority scheme: democratic and autocratic Democratization Autocratization Political Participation Escalation Sequence Rational Choice and the Emotion Quotient

  6. The Polity conflict management scheme: sociational or instrumental techniques Performance Repression Polar Factionalism: Window on Crisis Dynamics

  7. State Fragility Political Instability State Failure Dual Forms: Processual and Transitional Factionalism

  8. Macro-Systemic Resiliency and Intercessions in Political Conflict Dynamics

  9. The Good News!

  10. Policy Recommendations • Increase resiliency • “Whole of system” approach • Accountability guarantees • Election assistance and monitors • Engagement and mediation • Lessen reliance on instrumental strategies • Security Sector Reform; Professionalization of the military • Acknowledge emotion quotient

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