1 / 20

peramalan Permintaan

peramalan Permintaan. PhD in Economics , 1998, Dept. of Economics, The University of Queensland, Australia. Post Graduate Diploma in Regional Dev., 1994, Dept. of Economics, The Univ. of Queensland, Australia.

afarrow
Download Presentation

peramalan Permintaan

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. peramalanPermintaan • PhD in Economics, 1998, Dept. of Economics, The University of Queensland, Australia. • Post Graduate Diploma in Regional Dev.,1994, Dept. of Economics, The Univ. of Queensland, Australia. • MS in Rural & Regional Development Planning, 1986, Graduate School, Bogor Agricultural University, Bogor BAHAN KULIAH ekonomi manajerial Prodi manajemen s-1 fe-uhamka Dosen : Muchdie, PhD in Economics

  2. PokokBahasan • PeramalanKualitatif : Survei &JajakPendapat • Peramalan Kuantitatif : AnalisisDeretWaktu • Peramalan Kuantitatif : TeknikPenghalusan • Peramalan Kuantitatif : MetodeBarometrik • Peramalan Kuantitatif : Model Ekonometrik • Peramalan Kuantitatif : Peramalan Input-Output • Ringkasan, PertanyaanDiskusi, Soal-SoaldanAlamatSitus Internet • StudiKasusGabungan 2 : MengestimasidanMeramalkanPermintaanListrikdiAmerikaSerikat

  3. Peramalan kualitatif • Survey Techniques • Planned Plant and Equipment Spending • Expected Sales and Inventory Changes • Consumers’ Expenditure Plans • Opinion Polls • Business Executives • Sales Force • Consumer Intentions

  4. Time-Series Analysis • Secular Trend • Long-Run Increase or Decrease in Data • Cyclical Fluctuations • Long-Run Cycles of Expansion and Contraction • Seasonal Variation • Regularly Occurring Fluctuations • Irregular or Random Influences

  5. Trend Projection • Linear Trend:St = S0 + b tb = Growth per time period • Constant Growth RateSt = S0 (1 + g)tg = Growth rate • Estimation of Growth Rate lnSt = lnS0 + t ln(1 + g)

  6. Actual Trend Forecast Ratio = SeasonalAdjustment Average of Ratios forEach Seasonal Period = Seasonal Variation Ratio to Trend Method AdjustedForecast TrendForecast SeasonalAdjustment =

  7. Seasonal Variation Ratio to Trend Method:Example Calculation for Quarter 1 Trend Forecast for 1996.1 = 11.90 + (0.394)(17) = 18.60 Seasonally Adjusted Forecast for 1996.1 = (18.60)(0.8869) = 16.50

  8. Moving Average Forecasts Forecast is the average of data from w periods prior to the forecast data point.

  9. Exponential SmoothingForecasts Forecast is the weighted average of of the forecast and the actual value from the prior period.

  10. Root Mean Square Error Measures the Accuracy of a Forecasting Method

  11. Barometric Methods • National Bureau of Economic Research • Department of Commerce • Leading Indicators • Lagging Indicators • Coincident Indicators • Composite Index • Diffusion Index

  12. Econometric Models Single Equation Model of the Demand For Cereal (Good X) QX = a0 + a1PX + a2Y + a3N + a4PS + a5PC + a6A + e QX = Quantity of X PX = Price of Good X Y = Consumer Income N = Size of Population PS = Price of Muffins PC = Price of Milk A = Advertising e = Random Error

  13. Econometric Models Multiple Equation Model of GNP Reduced Form Equation

  14. Input-Output Forecasting Three-Sector Input-Output Flow Table

  15. DirectRequirements Input RequirementsColumn Total = Input-Output Forecasting Direct Requirements Matrix

  16. Input-Output Forecasting Total Requirements Matrix

  17. = Input-Output Forecasting Total Requirements Matrix Final Demand Vector Total Demand Vector

  18. Input-Output Forecasting Revised Input-Output Flow Table

  19. TUGAS BAB-5 • Pertanyaan Diskusi : • Setiap mahasiswa memilih 2 (dua) nomor pertanyaan untuk dijawab secara tertulis. Hanya satu nomor pertanyaan yang boleh sama dengan mahasiswa lainnya. • Jawaban dipresentasikan pada pertemuan berikut. • Soal-soal : • Setiap mahasiswa memilih 2 nomor soal dari Soal-soal nomor 1 – 14 untuk dijawab secara tertulis. Hanya satu nomor soal yang boleh sama dengan mahasiswa lainnya. • Jawaban ditulis pada sebuah Buku Tulis yang dikumpulkan pada saat UTS.

More Related