SECURITY FOR SMALL STATES IN A GLOBALIZED WORLD: AN ILLUSION?

1. SECURITY FOR SMALL STATES IN A GLOBALIZED WORLD: AN ILLUSION? CLIVE ARCHER clivearcher8@aol.com

2. Outline • Contested concept 1: small states (again) • Contested concept 2: security • Contested concept 3: Globalized World (again) • Small states in Europe & world • Security checklists 10/20 years after • Smallness & security • Largeness & security • Some key factors • Where to now?

3. Contested concept 1: small state • Subjective concept: seen as small • Objective reality: population, area, GDP • Contextual: ‘the weak part in any asymmetric relationship’ (Steinmetz & Wivel, 2010:6). Smallness is defined through the relation between the state and external environment

4. Contested concept 2: security Traditional concept of security: • Military: state must have enough military power to defend itself or buy it in • Threat to existence of state: self-defence or alliance needed (then a choice of ‘bandwaggoning’ or ‘balancing’)

5. Contested concept 2: security New concepts of security: the middle range: • New military insecurities; irregular armies, terrorism – need more than just military response • Environmental security: specific/general: can still threaten existence of state, but military means not sufficient to ‘repel’ it; diplomacy • Economic security: lack can threaten state & nation; non-military solutions • Energy security: problems of lack of sources

6. Contested concept 2: security ‘Low level’ security • Societal security: rights of groups, protect civilian population & infrastructure • Human security: legal rights in war & conflict; living conditions

7. Contested concept 2: security • Range of securities: traditional hard military; intermediate; low level, soft. • Security complexes: Mixes of the range of securities (or insecurities) some of which react on each other • Some elements re-inforce: use of hard security instruments to help environmental security. Others clash: hard vs societal

8. Contested concept 3:Globalized World • Is the world more ‘global’ than 100 years ago? • What has changed and what has stayed the same?

9. Small States in Europe • Nordic-Baltic Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania • CEEC Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Romania, • CIS/Ex-CIS Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, • Alpines Austria, Switzerland, Liechtenstein • Western Europe Belgium, Ireland, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, • Balkans Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro, Slovenia, Serbia, • Mediterranean: Cyprus, Greece, Malta

10. Countries of Europe(which are missing?)

11. Checklist: existential military threat (10-20 years) • Nordic-Baltic Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania • CIS/Ex-CIS Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, • Balkans Kosovo • Mediterranean Cyprus Italics weakest threat, bold strongest

12. Checklist: internal military conflict • CIS/Ex-CIS Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, • Balkans Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kosovo, Macedonia, Serbia,

13. Prospects for internal/external conflict in Transcaucasia

14. Checklist: major civil unrest (next 10-20 years) • Nordic-Baltic Latvia • CEEC Hungary, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Romania, • CIS/Ex-CIS Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, • Balkans Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, • Mediterranean Cyprus, Greece, Spain, Portugal

15. Checklist: international terrorism • Nordic-Baltic Denmark • CIS/Ex-CIS Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova, • Balkans Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kosovo, Macedonia, Serbia • Mediterranean Cyprus, Greece

16. Failed, foiled or completed attacks & suspects arrested for Islamist terrorism in EU

17. Checklist: major environmental problems • Nordic-Baltic Lithuania • CEEC Hungary, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Romania, • CIS/Ex-CIS Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, • Western Europe Netherlands, Portugal, • Balkans Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, • Mediterranean Cyprus, Greece, Malta

18. Youth & Environment Europe July 2011

19. Checklist: major economic/social breakdown • Nordic-Baltic Latvia • CEEC Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Romania, • CIS/Ex-CIS Armenia, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, • Western Europe Ireland, Portugal, Spain • Balkans Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, • Mediterranean Cyprus, Greece, Malta

20. Unemployment rates in EU states April 2012

21. Smallness & security • Most secure Nordic states, BeNeLux, Alpines Ireland Czech Rep, Slovenia, Slovakia, Croatia • Most insecure CIS/Ex-CIS states Albania, Kosovo, Macedonia, Serbia, B-H Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary Cyprus Greece

22. Largeness & Security • Most secure Germany UK France Poland • Least secure Ukraine Russia Italy Spain

23. Some key factors History: ex-USSR, ex-Yugoslavia (shadow of the past) Geography: Mediterranean, Balkan Not-EU member : causal?? Not-Eurozone member: causal? Not-NATO member : causal?? Level of democracy: causal?? Underdevelopment of civil society BUT size?

24. Some key factors • Clearly small states in Europe can be secure and are probably as secure now as ever • BUT other factors help sustain this security • AND other factors help undermine it • What about elsewhere in world? Caribbean, Africa, Middle east, Asia-Pacific • A key factor for small state: alliance • A key factor for small nation: civil society

25. Where to now? Look at how states bind themselves into state system Look at society not just the state

26. After the break…. • Identify your state (where you come from, one that you like, Iceland…) • Make up groups of 4-6 • Identify: what makes it • Secure • Insecure • Should it join/remain part of an alliance? Why?