The climate change program in lac
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The climate change program in LAC. Use of the earth simulator Walter Vergara January 17, 2008. Climate change strategy in Latin America.

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The climate change program in lac

The climate change program in LAC

Use of the earth simulator

Walter Vergara

January 17, 2008


Climate change strategy in latin america

Climate change strategy in Latin America

  • a) To support low carbon economic growth, in particular for the energy and transport sectors, which represent the bulk of emissions in the region and promote avoidance of deforestation;

  • b) To support the process of adaptation, focused on key vulnerabilities as identified under the national communications process to the UNFCCC; and

  • c) to support the linkages between knowledge and capacity building and decision making.


2005 hurricane season in the caribbean basin

2005 Hurricane season in the Caribbean basin


The climate change program in lac

Projected change in temperature* (1990-99) to (2090-99)

along the American Cordillera, from Alaska to Chile

Mountain peaks

Limited data

Limited data

South

North

*Mean of 8 GCM simulations from IPCC 4th Assessment

using scenario A2

Source: Bradley , Vuille, Diaz and Vergara, Science, 2006


The climate change program in lac

A temperature increase of 4o C is anticipated to lead to a collapse of the Amazon Rainforest Ecosystem (Brazil, Colombia, Bolivia)


Carbon finance in lac

Carbon finance in LAC

  • In Latin America:

    • Fifty two projects in preparation

    • Seventeen emission reduction contracts

    • Renewable energy (solar, eolic, geothermal)

    • Waste management (landfill gas, wastewater

      treatment)

    • Transport

    • Carbon sinks (reforestation, avoided

      deforestation)

    • Others (industrial gases)


Access to information and linking science to development

Access to information and linking science to development

  • Support the institutional framework for the implementation of the UNFCC mandates

  • Provide a bridge between science and development

    • Meteorological Research Institute (Japan)

    • National Center for Atmospheric Research (USA)

    • Pool of glaciology institutes (Insbruck, IRD, UMASS)

    • Japanese Space Agency (Japan)

    • Georgia Tech University (USA)

    • NOAA (USA)


Four points on adaptation

Four points on adaptation

  • Ecosystem approach (rather than economic sectors)

  • Trends vs variability ( avoids noise and unreliability)

  • Pilots means pilots (no money for large schemes)

  • Moral hazard (borrowing for adaptation means rich energy intensive societies have passed on the bill?)


Adaptation measures in coastal zones of the west indies spa us 7 m

Adaptation measures in coastal zones of the West Indies (SPA-US$7 m)

  • Measures addressing impacts of climate change on coastal areas.

    • Water water desalinization using wind energy for the Islands of Bequia and Union (St. Vincent & the Grenadines)

    • Strengthened critical coastal infrastructure in the Castries area (St. Lucia).

    • Recovery and accretion of coral reefs (St. Lucia).

    • Climate resilient management plan for national parks (Dominica)

    • Approved: Sept 6, 2006


Colombia integrated national adaptation plan us 15 m spa

Colombia: Integrated National Adaptation Plan (US$15 m-SPA)

  • Pilot adaptation measures focused on:

    • High altitude moorlands (water regulation, carbon storage, hydro-energy)

      • Riparian belts, reforestation, habitat conservation

        Increased exposure to Malaria and Dengue

      • Strengthen detection and prevention programs and infrastructure

  • Approved: April 11, 2006


Adaptation to climate impacts in glaciarized basins bolivia ecuador peru sccf 32 million

Adaptation to climate impacts in Glaciarized basins (Bolivia, Ecuador Peru)- SCCF, $32 million

  • Water supply

    • Development of alternative sources

    • Demand management

    • Engineered storage

  • Energy supply

    • Diversification of supply

  • Agriculture

    • Alternative crops,

    • Advanced irrigation systems

  • Scheduled for Board approval March 08


Mexico gulf coast wetlands us 28m sccf

Mexico: Gulf Coast Wetlands– US$28m-SCCF

  • Assess climate impact on national water budget assessment

  • Address impacts from subsidence and salination on the Gulf Coast of Mexico:

    • Restoration of natural surface drainage

    • Rationalization of water use

    • Regeneration of soil cover

    • New set asides

  • Scheduled for GEF approval by

    June 08


Combining adaptation and mitigation

Combining adaptation and mitigation

  • Nariva ecosystem restoration in

    Trinidad (CF: E$2m; CCIG: $0.5 m).

    • Restore natural drainage

    • Restore soil cover

    • Prevent fires

  • A restored coastal ecosystem:

    • Will:

      • promote carbon sinks

      • protect biodiversity

      • provide buffer to storm surges


Earth simulator

Earth Simulator

  • Scope of the Cooperation.

    • training in Japan to enable

      efficient use of ES data

    • technical assistance

      to interpret results

    • scientific exchange

    • cooperation for dissemination

      of results in scientific literature

    • data storage

    • feedback to ES for better

      future simulation at regional

      level

  • Architecture

    • 40 Teraflops!!!!!!!!!

    • 20 x 20 km grid resolution

    • Future 5 x 5 km grid resolution


Time slice experiment

Time slice experiment


Numerical methods and runs

The unified model utilizes:

• Semi-Lagrangian integration scheme

• Short-Wave Parameterization by Shibata & Uchiyama

• Long-Wave Parameterization by Shibata & Aoki

• Cumulous Parameterization by Arakawa & Schubert

• In clouds, consideration of large-scale condensation, cumulus, and stratocumulus

• Parameterization of the boundary layer: 2-level closed system of Mellor & Yamada

Numerical methods and runs

AGCM developed jointly by the Center for Cli-mate System Research (CCSR) of the University of Tokyo and the

Japanese National Institute for Environmental Sci-ences (NIES). The particular version of the CCSR/NIES AGCM

has been used for several international modeling ef-forts, including future projections for the Intergovernmental

Panel for Climate Change (IPCC, SRES) and the Atmos-pheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP).


Second stage mou with mri

Second stage MOU with MRI

  • Add Amazon basin simulation

  • Add extreme events medium term

  • Add 5 by 5 km resolution

  • Extend MOU by 5 additional years (to 2012)

  • Estimated value of MOU: US$10 million

  • Estimated Bank contributions: US$1 million


The climate change program in lac

Net reduction in precipitation during winter months projected through the use of the Earth Simulator


The climate change program in lac

Usando el simulador de la tierra, escenario A1B para finales de siglo XXI


The climate change program in lac

Comparison of actual (average 1961-1990 data from 685 weather stations) vs modeled isothermals (run AM from the Earth Simulator) and future temperatures (2080-2099)

Source: (IDEAM report on activities under Partnership MRI-WB, 2006)


The climate change program in lac

  • A comprehensive climate change program needs to tackle besides adaptation and mitigation, links between information and decision making

  • There are many science and knowledge institutions eager to work with the Bank on this issue

  • Better understanding of impacts requires of strong observational networks and a view on direction and intensity of trends

  • The use of the Earth Simulator has facilitated the visualization of these trends

  • Combined with other tools and methods, the information provided has been of support to the formulation of adaptation strategies


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