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The bleak future of Iraqi displaced Presentation to ISPI 25 June 2007

The bleak future of Iraqi displaced Presentation to ISPI 25 June 2007. Ethnic- Sectarian Faultline. Initially Sunni insurgency and Sunni Islamic extremists (both local & foreign) against MNF-I, now increasingly targetting the Shia population, minorities, secular & prof.

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The bleak future of Iraqi displaced Presentation to ISPI 25 June 2007

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  1. The bleak future of Iraqi displaced Presentation to ISPI 25 June 2007

  2. Ethnic- Sectarian Faultline • Initially Sunni insurgency and Sunni Islamic extremists (both local & foreign) against MNF-I, now increasingly targetting the Shia population, minorities, secular & prof. • Post Samarra increasing Shiia revenge • Shiia groups often split & includes targetting MNF-I • Kurdish aspirations in Mosul, Kirkuk and Diyala • Tribal & criminal activity • Regional considerations • Parties believe they can still “maximise their gains” • Moderates losing influence

  3. Statistics • Daily No. reported security incidents 150 - 200 • Ave. 100+ killed per day (UNAMI) • Ave. 200 wounded per day. • 91% violent deaths men (2/3 15 -44 age) Lancet • Ave. family size 6 (Cluster F) • Psychological impact 2:5 are mentally ill > women (WHO) • Unemployment > 80 percent > Anbar (NCCI - UNAMI) • > 50 living on < USD 1 day (UNAMI) • Inflation rate of > 70 percent (NCCI – UNAMI – COSIT Iraqs Central Office of Statistics)

  4. Refugee Indicators • Up to 2,000,000 in neighbouring states (Syria, Jordan, Egypt, Lebanon, Turkey and Iran) • Approx. 50,000 inside Iraq incl. 15,000 -Palestinians who are particularly at risk • Average case size increased from 2 to 3.6 (UNHCR) • Estimate of 560,000 Iraqi refugee children being of school going age (UNHCR, SCF, UNESCO)

  5. IDP Overview • Est. 822,000 new IDPs since 02/06 UNHCR/Cluster F • Total IDPs now exceeds 2 million • UNHCR est. 2.3 – 2.5 million IDPs by end 2007. • Ave. of 2,000 new IDPs per day (83 per hour) • 10 Governorates restrict access to new IDPs • Increasing number of IDPs within Governorates • Denial to/register PDS food distribution • 25%+ of the 325,000 returnees have been displaced (UNHCR)

  6. Refugee Indicators (cont). • 12 + % of households headed by women • 75 + % children not attending school • Many Iraqi women do not have passports • 30% of refugees w/ special needs incl. 4% disabled • Approx. 50% of refugees are Sunni. • 20 % Christians • Syria, Jordan, Lebanon not signed 1951 CSR • Lack of work, self esteem leading to SGBV • Men leaving their families in neighbouring states • Women/girls being forced into “survival sex”

  7. Refugees in Syria • Govt. estimates 1.2 - 1.5 million • UNHCR registered 90,000 • 130,000 waiting to be registered Feb ‘08 • 3 - 4,000 applying for registration daily basis • Registering average 450+ per day • Considers Iraqis as guests • Syria relatively generous > health, education • Recent restrictions rescinded following HC’s visit • UNHCR working with MoE, MoH, Red Crescent

  8. Refugees in Jordan • Govt. est. 500-750,000 (approx 13% of pop’n) • UNHCR registered 35,000 • Average of 450 people per day • Brazil agreed to take Ruweyshid Palestinians • Govt. recognising only “G” passports (renewal problem) • No access to public education or subsidised health care • Problem of detention and refoulement • No#s crossing negligible • Some positive signals

  9. Lebanon • Est. no# of Iraqis in Lebanon 40-80,000 • No. of Iraqis registered is 6,500 • Ave. size is less than 2 and mainly Shi’ite. • Government hardened position • Emb. in Baghdad issued 28,000 visas in 2006 • 150 Iraqis currently in detention in Lebanon • Priority concern is health

  10. Iraq Socio-economic indicators • 80% of doctors have left some hospitals (UNAMI/media) • 75% of children are not in school in central/south (UNICEF) • Immunised rates dropping from 83% • Prior to war Iraq had 1/3 doctors compared to Syria, Lebanon and Jordan (UNAMI) • 30% - 70% of schools have closed (100% in parts of Baghdad) • 70% lack access to adequate water supply (UNAMI - ICRC) • 81% lack access to effective sanitation (UNAMI - ICRC) • 8.3 million would be food insecure if the PDS fails (WFP) • Perception that PDS has already ceased to function in some areas (WFP – UNAMI) • Chronic child malnutrition at 23% (17% acute in the sth) ILCS –UNDP

  11. UNHCR Objectives • Reinforce staff in Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, Egypt, Turkey and Nth Iraq; Total of 300 including > 50 internationals • Reinforce UN response to IDP situation – effectiveness of remote management • Establish registration/interview facilities • Register up to 200,000 most vulnerable Iraqis (on target at 130,000 +) • Support community based assistance, health, education • Direct assistance to EVI’s – Women at Risk

  12. Shelter project Thi Qar

  13. Enhance capacity for resettlement referrals to 20,000 incl. 7,000 to US by 30/06 (110% met) • At least 10% referrals WAR (above target 16%) • Enhance border monitoring/detention visits. • Continue advocacy efforts to raise the profile of the humanitarian needs of the Iraqis (April Conf.) • Reinforce international/national staff (300 staff)

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