Dividends Plus: Building Wealth and Growing Income in Uncertain Times

1. Dividends Plus: Building Wealth and Growing Income in Uncertain Times Roger S. Conrad Conrad’s Utility Investor Washington D.C. AAII January 2019

2. Briefing Objectives • Income Investing: Still the Winner’s Game but…The Rules have Changed! • Dividends Plus: Tactics and Strategies • Sector by Sector Outlook for 2019 • Picks and Pans • Q&A

3. Rates Rise, Then Retreat

4. Slowest Tightening Cycle…Ever?

5. The 10-Year This Cycle

6. Whither the Fed and Rates? • Fed has indicated “Tightening” cycle is likely to slow even more this year • Pressures on Global Growth: Impact of Trade Tariffs, Longest Government Shutdown in history (already), China, Brexit, Future Disruption • Inflation still a no show • But…the Fed wants to “normalize” by reducing balance sheet over time, better-than-expected growth would provide opportunity

7. Normal Means Higher

8. …But Growth Is What’s Key for Stocks

9. …And Another View of That

12. Income Investing Outlook • Focus on the economy first, the Fed and interest rates only as they relate to growth • No Recession yet, full-on bear market is unlikely without one • Myriad threats to growth to watch • Expectations/Valuations are still high on an historical basis—some Q4’s will disappoint • Expect wide momentum swings, even in so-called low Beta stocks

13. Don’t Ignore the fact that ETFs HAVE Changed the Market’s Structure

14. Time for a Fresh Approach • Dividends Plus Is: • An actively managed, broadly diversified weighted portfolio of income investments, designed to produce average annual returns of at least 10%--defined as yield plus dividend growth

15. Actively Managed Income Means… • Focus on accumulating positions in high quality income generating investments • Entry points based on “10% Strategy” • Scaling in phased-in energy points, buy limit orders, “Dream” buy prices • Weighting positions based on potential and confidence level • Cash component protects and fuels growth. • Being willing to sell when it’s needed

16. Utilities: Volatility Grows as Bull Ages

17. Actively Managed does NOT Mean… • Frequent trading: You’ll only reward your broker and Uncle Sam, and you’ll miss out on the capital appreciation dividend growth always brings over the long haul • Chasing the highest yield • Chasing momentum • Loading up on a single “hot” sector • Not holding cash

18. IN QUALITY RATINGS WE TRUST • Dividend Growth and Sustainability • Revenue Reliability • Regulatory/Legal Relations and Risks • Refinancing/Financing: Need for and Access to Low Cost Capital • Operating Efficiency One hand washes the other….

19. Building the CUI Plus+ Portfolio

20. Outlook: Utilities Positives Negatives High Valuations for top quality stocks means easy to disappoint expectations ETFsdominate many names increasing volatility, momentum has impact Misconceptions about interest rate sensitivity are headwinds • Valuations drop in 2018 as earnings rise, shares lag • PG&E notwithstanding, underlying businesses are the healthiest in decades with several sustainable drivers of growth • Dividends plus dividend growth of 10%

21. Solar Power: Driver and Threat

22. Dominion Energy (NYSE: D)—Multiple Earnings Drivers for Recovery Yield = 5.34% Dividend growth rate 10% for next several years 2018 YTD Return: -7.6% Why the underperformance: Company acquired SCANA using its stock, market skeptical of deal and method of purchase from day 1 FERC decision on regulated pipeline rates sank Dominion Midstream, plan to finance Cove Point LNG Atlantic Coast Pipeline encounters regulatory related delays to planned late 2019 startup Why a recovery: SCANA purchased cheaply, will boost earnings Cove Point LNG financed alternatively, DM to consolidate Band aid is off with Atlantic Coast Pipeline news as company guides to later startup Solar and Gas Management sticks to sector beating earnings and dividend growth projections

23. Outlook: REITs Positive Negative Traditional REITs (office, apartment, retail) are still trading at high valuations, disappointment likely ETFs dominate many names increasing volatility Interest rate worries still persist as headwind Many are exposed should economy weaken in 2019 • REIT-ificationof America means structure now encompasses a wide range of niche areas with expansive growth • Growing economy is good for business • Dividends plus dividend growth of 10%

24. REITs: Volatility Grows as Bull Ages

25. Sotherly Hotels Inc (NSDQ: SOHO)—Small REIT in a unique niche. Yield: 7.8% 12-Mo Dividend Growth: 13.6% Market capitalization $91.7 mil, no credit rating, just 2 analysts following Insiders own 13% with Chairman and CEO Andrew Sims at 9.45%, generally buyers though no recent trades Key Growth Drivers: Demonstrated record of success turning older hotel properties into destination sites Consistent, strong growth in RevPAR and occupancy rates at upgraded properties Demonstrated ability to access capital with conservative financing strategy Well covered distribution with 54.3% 9-mo payout ratio. Shares trade -40% below Dec 2004 IPO price

26. Outlook: MLPs Positives Negatives Still some adjustments left as companies seek to self-fund CAPEX Fear level is still very high and capital markets are therefore hostile even to investing in projects with demonstrated need (i.e. contracts) Still have exposure to commodity price cycle • Sector is broadly unloved with investors doubting even established names • 4 years of de-risking and cutting debt has dramatically improved business quality • Oil strengthens again. • 10% yield plus growth is abundant

27. Volatile Oil and Gas

28. MLPs: 2016 Prices But Far Less Risk

29. EQM Midstream (NYSE: EQM)—Cheap and Growing in Gas Yield = 9.69% 12-Mo dividend growth: 13.8%, management guides to sustainable rate of 6-8% in 2019, beyond 12-Mo Return: -35.2% Why the drop: Merger of parent and biggest customer EQT with former Rice has not met expectations so far Roll-up of EQGP by Equitrans disappointed some who wanted MLP to be acquired MLPs not a popular asset class the past few years, even before oil selloff in late 2018 Why a recovery: Management’s new guidance for distribution growth is sustainable and a compelling value proposition as well Potential upside from shareholder activism at EQT from former Rice executives Mountain Valley Pipeline is still likely to be built this year and would provide a big lift MLPsshowing signs they’ve hit a major bottom, MLP is 3.54% of Alerian Index

30. Other Sectors of Interest…Or Not Where Value Lies Tricks and Traps Long-term bonds: Little additional reward for extended maturities Passive investing strategies that allocate based on cookie cutter rules Most BDCs Most stocks yielding more than 10% • Yieldcos—PG&E Debacle a buying opportunity for income and growth • Selected Financials—Regionals Least Risk • Selected Canadian REITs—Watch out for Alberta • Natural Resources—Bigger is usually better

31. Now About those ETFs…

32. ETFs: Pros and Cons Pros Cons Stock sector ETFs always hold the bad and ugly of a sector, as well as the good. Performance reflects that ETF owners give up control of how much income they earn, as amount depends on what all holdings make Many ETFs are dominated by passive strategies • Broad diversification in sectors, ability to trade commodities, currencies and markets make them ideal trading vehicles • Fees continue to decline, products becoming more innovative • Low cost makes them accessible for small accounts

33. I like this ETF…

34. Though I like what’s in it more…

35. YOUR TURN • PLEASE TYPE IN YOUR QUESTIONS CALL SHERRY: 1-877-302-0749 9-5 ET, M-F SERVICE@CAPITALISTTIMES.COM Conrad’s Utility Investor, CUI Plus+, EIA, DDI,PVB