HOW GENERAL IS THE HUBBERT CURVE?
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HOW GENERAL IS THE HUBBERT CURVE? Ugo Bardi 1 and Leigh Yaxley 2 1 Università di Firenze, Italy 2 Association of Petroleum Engineers, Jakarta. ASPO: Associazione per lo studio del Picco del Petrolio. www.aspoitalia.net. Hubbert is Unavoidable . U. Bardi – “Energy Policy”, 2005.

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HOW GENERAL IS THE HUBBERT CURVE?

Ugo Bardi1 and Leigh Yaxley2

1 Università di Firenze, Italy

2 Association of Petroleum Engineers, Jakarta

ASPO: Associazione per lo studio del Picco del Petrolio

www.aspoitalia.net


Hubbert is Unavoidable

U. Bardi – “Energy Policy”, 2005

  • Given certain assumptions:

  • Limited amount of resource

  • Cost of extraction inversely proportional to remaining resource


The Higher you Climb, the Faster you Fall

Bardi, 2005

Guseo et al.

To be published


How about the real world?

  • The Crude Oil case:

  • Limited amount of resource

  • Global Exploitation

  • No suitable replacement

Regional cases, e.g US-48 may not be relevant


Whales

U. Bardi – submitted to J. Ecodynamics


Historical Fishery Cases

Venzuelan pearls

Romero 1999

Bardi and Yaxley 2005





Conclusions for global resource depletion

  • “Bell Shaped”, or “Hubbert,” curve is approximately valid

  • Curve shape may be asymetric (technology factors?)

  • Prices start rising before peak

  • Rise of prices is exponential and strongly oscillating

Thanks to messrs. Jean Laherrere, Robert Parnell for their comments and suggestions


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