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Use of satellite and suborbital observations to constrain North American methane e missions in the Carbon Monitoring System. Daniel Jacob (PI), Steven Wofsy (Co-I ), Kevin Wecht , Alex Turner, Greg Santoni , Melissa Sulprizio. Harvard University.

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slide1

Use of satellite and suborbital observations to constrain North American methane emissions in the Carbon Monitoring System

Daniel Jacob (PI), Steven Wofsy (Co-I), Kevin Wecht,

Alex Turner, Greg Santoni, Melissa Sulprizio

Harvard University

Vivienne Payne (Co-I), Kevin Bowman (Co-I), Meemong Lee (Co-I), John Worden

NASA JPL

importance of methane for the carbon monitoring system
Importance of methane for the Carbon Monitoring System
  • Present-day emission-based forcing of methane is 0.95 W m-2 (IPCC AR5)
  • Climate impact of methane is comparable to CO2 over 20-year horizon
  • Methane is a low-hanging fruit for climate policy
  • Natural gas and hydrofracking are changing US sources
  • Methane is a central piece of the President’s Climate Action Plan
building a methane monitoring system for n america integrated into the cms
Building a methane monitoring system for N Americaintegrated into the CMS

EDGAR emission

Inventory for methane

Can we use satellites together with suborbital observations of methane to monitor methane emissions on the continental scale and test/improve emission inventories in a manner useful to stakeholders?

slide4

Methane bottom-up emission inventories for N. America:

EDGAR 4.2 (anthropogenic), LPJ (wetlands)

N American totals in Tg a-1

Surface/aircraft studies suggest that these emissions are too low by ~factor 2

slide5

Methane observing system in North America

Satellites

AIRS, TES, IASI

Thermal IR

TROPOMI GCIRI

1-day geo

GOSAT

3-day, sparse

SCIAMACHY

6-day

Shortwave IR

2002 2006 2009 20015 2018

Suborbital

1/2ox2/3o grid of GEOS-Chem chemical transport model (CTM)

INTEX-A

SEAC4RS

CalNex

slide6

High-resolution inverse analysis system

for quantifying methane emissions in North America

Observations

EDGAR 4.2 + LPJ

a priori bottom-up emissions

GEOS-Chem CTM and its adjoint

1/2ox2/3o over N. America

nested in 4ox5o global domain

Bayesian

inversion

Validation

Verification

Optimized emissions

at 1/2ox2/3o resolution

The same CMS inverse analysis system is used at JPL for CO2 (K. Bowman, PI)

slide7

Optimization of state vector

for adjoint inversion of SCIAMACHY data

Optimal clustering of 1/2ox2/3ogridsquares

Native resolution 1000 clusters

34

Optimized US anthropogenic emissions (Tg a-1)

Correction factor to bottom-up emissions

posterior cost function

SCIAMACHY data cannot constrain

emissions at 1/2ox2/3o resolution;

use 1000 optimally selected clusters

28

Number of clusters in inversion

1 10 100 1000 10,000

Kevin Wecht, Harvard

slide8

North American methane emission estimates

optimized by SCIAMACHY + INTEX-A data (Jul-Aug 2004)

SCIAMACHY column methane mixing ratio

Correction factors to a priori emissions

1000 clusters

ppb

1700

1800

EDGAR v4.2 26.6

EPA 28.3

This work 32.7

US anthropogenic emissions (Tg a-1)

Livestock emissions are underestimated by EPA, oil/gas emissions are not

Wecht et al., in prep.

slide10

Inversion of GOSAT Oct 2009-2010 methane

Correction factors to prior emissions (EDGAR 4.2 + LPJ)

Nested inversion

with 1/2ox2/3o resolution

Alex Turner, Harvard

Next step: clustering of emissions in the inversion, use of ACOS data

slide11

Testing the information content of satellite data

with CalNex inversion of methane emissions

Correction factors to EDGAR

(analytical inversion)

CalNex observations

GEOS-Chem w/EDGAR v4.2

May-Jun

2010

S. Wofsy (Harvard)

1800

2000

ppb

0.1 1 3

2x underestimate

of livestock emissions

Emisssions, Tg a-1

Wecht et al., in prep.

slide12

GOSAT observations are too sparse

to spatially resolve California emissions

Correction factors to methane emissions from inversion

GOSAT data (CalNex period))

GOSAT (CalNex period) GOSAT (1 year)

Each point =

1-10 observations

0.5

1.5

Wecht et al., in prep.

slide13

TROPOMI and GCIRI constrain state-level methane emissions better than a dedicated aircraft mission

Correction factors to EDGAR v4.2 a priori emissions from a 1-year OSSE

TROPOMI (global daily coverage) GCIRI (geostationary 1-h return coverage)

0.2 1 5

Wecht et al., in prep.

slide14

Working with stakeholders at the US state level

State-by-state analysis of SCIAMACHY correction factors to EDGARv4.2 emissions

with Iowa Dept. of Natural Resources (Marnie Stein)

State emissions computed w/EPA tools too low by x3.5;

now investigating EPA livestock emission factors

Hog manure?

0 1 2

correction factor

with New York Attorney General Office (John Marschilok)

State-computed emissions too high by x0.6,

reflects overestimate of gas/waste/landfill emissions

Large EDGAR source from gas+landfills

is just not there

Melissa Sulprizio and Kevin Wecht, Harvard

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