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North American Crude Production and It’s Impact on Oil Markets

North American Crude Production and It’s Impact on Oil Markets. Fuel Oil Buyers Conference . Miami, October 29 th 2013. 1. Title. US Crude Production. Key message here. Source: EIA, Macquarie EMD Estimates. YOY Growth Rates 2012 15.1% 2013 12.0% 2014 15.0% 2015 10.5%.

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North American Crude Production and It’s Impact on Oil Markets

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  1. North American Crude Production and It’s Impact on Oil Markets Fuel Oil Buyers Conference Miami, October 29th 2013.

  2. 1 Title

  3. US Crude Production • Key message here • Source: EIA, Macquarie EMD Estimates YOY Growth Rates 2012 15.1% 2013 12.0% 2014 15.0% 2015 10.5%

  4. OPEC vs R.O.W. • Source: EIA, Macquarie EMD Estimates

  5. Location of US Shale Formations • Source: EIA

  6. US Shale, World Class Reserves • Source: Pioneer 2Q13 Investor Presentation

  7. Relative Size of US Shale Plays • Source: Pioneer 2Q13 Investor Presentation

  8. Efficiencies in US Shale Plays • Source: EOG 2Q13 Investor Presentation

  9. Global Shale Formations • 2013 Unproved Shale Oil Technically Recoverable Resources • Source: EIA Europe 12.9B FSU 77.2B North America 80B Asia Pacific 61B MENA 42.9B India + Pak 12.9B LatAm 59.7B Globally 345B

  10. US Refinery Crude Input • Source: EIA

  11. US Refinery Crude Input 1985 to 2012 • Source: EIA

  12. Increasing Imports of Heavy Feed Stocks

  13. Complexity on the Rise • Source: EIA • Cat cracking inputs has slowed 5.7% • Coker inputs have increased 7.0% • Hydrocracker inputs have increased 26.4%

  14. US Refinery Product Output • Source: EIA

  15. Global CDU Retirement vsUnits Under Construction • Source: IIR • Global capacity retirements [K BPD] • Global CDU Expansion Under Construction [K BPD] • Net of CDU Retirements and Units Under Construction [K BPD]

  16. Reshaping of Classical CrudeShipping Routes 2012-2018 • Source: IIR

  17. Cat Cracker Growth • Source: IIR • Regional Hydrocracker Growth [K BPD] • Regional Coker Growth [K BPD] • Regional Cat Cracking Growth [K Bpd]

  18. Global Product Flows • Source: BP Statistical Review

  19. Fuel Oil Impact : Feed and Fuel • Expect to see continued strong demand for straight run for coking/dumbell crude. 1 • VGO imports stagnant/weaker on weak gasoline margins/outlook 2 • Asia to produce more fuel oil as refining capacity increase = lower imports. 3 • Lower Atlantic basin fuel output as refineries continue to be shuttered. 4

  20. Summary Shale oil revolution has only just begun in USA and globally. 1 Both global crude and product trade patterns are going to be increasingly affected and altered 2 US Government will eventually allow US crude exports, similar to LNG. 3 • OPEC authority is and will continue to be challenged, but they remain the low cost producer 4

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