W in ds h2 model w ind d eployment s ystems h ydrogen model
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NREL  1617 Cole Boulevard  Golden, Colorado 80401-3393  (303) 275-3000 Operated for the U.S. Department of Energy by Midwest Research Institute  Battelle  Bechtel. W in DS-H2 MODEL W ind D eployment S ystems H ydrogen Model.

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W in DS-H2 MODEL W ind D eployment S ystems H ydrogen Model

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W in ds h2 model w ind d eployment s ystems h ydrogen model

NREL  1617 Cole Boulevard  Golden, Colorado 80401-3393  (303) 275-3000

Operated for the U.S. Department of Energy by Midwest Research Institute  Battelle  Bechtel

WinDS-H2 MODELWind Deployment Systems Hydrogen Model

Workshop on Electrolysis Production of Hydrogen from Wind and Hydropower

Walter Short

Nate Blair

September 9, 2003


Presentation contents

Presentation Contents

  • Background

  • Representation of wind in WinDS

  • Representation of hydrogen in WinDS-H2

    • Questions that WinDS-H2 might answer

    • System configuration

    • Factors considered/Assumptions/Control strategy

  • Preliminary results

  • Conclusions

  • Additional Modeling Required


Background status

Background/Status

  • Initial WinDS model did not include H2

    • Under development since 2002

    • First results for wind electricity only available in May 2003

  • WinDS-H2 development began in June 2003

    • Initial version does not consider sources of H2 other than wind

    • Have a few preliminary results today

    • Seeking your input on how to improve our current approach


Winds model

WinDS Model

  • A multi-regional, multi-time-period model of capacity expansion in the electric sector of the U.S

  • Designed to estimate market potential of wind energy in the U.S. for the next 20 – 50 years under different technology development and policy scenarios


Winds is designed to address the principal market issues for wind

WinDS is Designed to Address the Principal Market Issues for Wind

  • Access to and cost of transmission

    • Class 4 close to the load or class 6 far away?

    • How much wind can be transmitted on existing lines?

    • Will wind penetrate the market if it must cover the cost of new transmission lines?

  • Intermittency

    • How does wind capacity credit change with penetration?

    • How do ancillary service requirements that increase non-linearly with market penetration impact wind viability

    • How much would dispersal of wind sites help?


Winds addresses these issues through

WinDS Addresses These Issues Through:

  • Many wind supply and demand regions

  • Constraints on existing transmission available to wind

  • Explicit accounting for regulation and operating reserves, wind oversupply, and for wind capacity value as a function of the amount and dispersion of wind installations

  • Tracking individual wind installations by supply/demand region, wind class and transmission line vintage


General characteristics of winds

General Characteristics of WinDS

  • Linear program optimization (cost minimization) for each of 25 two-year periods from 2000 to 2050

  • Sixteen time slices in each year: 4 daily and 4 seasons

  • 4 levels of regions – wind supply/demand, power control areas, NERC areas, Interconnection areas

  • 4 wind classes (3-6), wind on existing AC lines and wind on new transmission lines

  • Other generation technologies – hydro, gas CT, gas CC, 4 coal technologies, nuclear, gas/oil steam


W in ds h2 model w ind d eployment s ystems h ydrogen model

WinDS Regions


Updated wind resources with fewer land use exclusions

Updated Wind Resources with Fewer Land-Use Exclusions


Transmission in winds

Transmission in WinDS


Wind intermittency in winds

Wind Intermittency in WinDS

  • Constraints

    • Capacity credit to reserve margin requirement

    • Operating reserve

    • Surplus wind

  • Probabilistic treatment

    • Explicitly accounts for correlation between wind sites

    • Updated values between periods


Wind contribution to reserve margin

Wind Contribution to Reserve Margin

  • Uses LOLP to estimate the additional load (ELCC) that can be met by the next increment of wind


Operating reserve constraint

Operating Reserve Constraint

  • Ensures adequate spinning reserve, quick-start capacity and interruptible load are available to meet normal requirements plus those imposed by wind


Surplus wind

Surplus Wind


Wind costs

Wind Costs

  • Cost and performance vary by wind class, and over time according to user inputs or with learning

    • PTC or ITC with start/stop dates, term, rate

    • Capital cost can increase with rough terrain

  • Price penalty on capital costs for rapid national and regional growth

  • Financing explicitly accounted for

  • Transmission costs –

    • Existing lines: $/kWh/mile or postage stamp

    • New lines: $/kW/mile; penalties for rough terrain and dense population


W in ds h2 model w ind d eployment s ystems h ydrogen model

Conventional Technology Constraints

Planned Outages

Forced Outages

Reserve Margin

Operating reserve

Load

Imports

Exports


Hydroelectricity in winds

Hydroelectricity in WinDS

  • No capacity expansion allowed

  • Retirements – both scheduled and unscheduled

  • Generation constrained by water availability (set to average over last 5 years)

  • Dispatched as needed for peaking power

    • Not constrained by irrigation, recreation, environmental considerations, etc.


Winds h2

WinDS-H2

  • Modified form of the WinDS model that includes the on-site use of wind generated electricity to produce H2 through electrolysis

  • Status:

    • Initial version under development

    • Selected preliminary results available today

    • Seeking your comments


Questions winds h2 can help answer

Questions WinDS-H2 Can Help Answer

  • What is the market potential for H2 from wind – nationally? Regionally?

  • What improvements are required in electrolyzers, storage, fuel cells and H2 transport to make wind-H2 competitive?

  • Does the possibility of H2 production from wind increase the potential of wind power?

  • What will be the principal use of H2 from wind - H2 fuel or fuel-cell-firming of wind?

  • Will local H2-fuel demand spur much wind-H2?


Wind h2 system configuration

Wind-H2 System Configuration

Transmission to Grid

Fuel cell

H2 Storage

Electrolyzer

Compressor

H2-fuel transport


H2 factors considered by winds h2

H2 Factors Considered by WinDS-H2

  • H2 and fuel cells:

    • Fuel cells contribute 100% to reserve margin

    • Higher transmission line capacity factor

    • Fuel cells contribute 100% to operating reserves

    • Reduction in surplus wind

  • H2 transportation fuel production

    • Transportation cost

      • Local vs remote transportation fuel demand


Major assumptions in winds h2

Major Assumptions in WinDS-H2

  • Only new wind farms have the option to produce H2, because:

    • Power purchase agreements

    • Wind turbine and power controls

    • Transmission requirements

  • There is a market for H2 fuel at a fixed price

    • Market size varies with region

  • Fuel cells used only to fill-in behind wind


Control strategy summary

Control Strategy Summary

  • The fraction of each wind farm’s capacity dedicated to H2 production is the same from one year to the next

  • The fractions of H2 sent to the fuel cell and sold as fuel are the same from one year to the next for each wind farm

  • Size H2 storage for daily peak load use of H2 in fuel cell

  • Generate with the fuel cell only during daily peak load period to firm up the wind generation

  • Use fuel cell generation to provide operating reserve as required

  • Use electrolyzers to reduce/eliminate surplus wind generation


Base case h2 inputs

Base Case H2 Inputs


Base case capacity results

Base Case Capacity Results


Base case h2 inputs cont d

Base Case H2 Inputs (cont’d)

  • Price of H2 fuel = $2.50/kg

  • Maximum regional demand for H2 fuel =

    5 million kg


H2 fuel production sensitivity

H2 Fuel Production Sensitivity


Sensitivity to h2 component capital costs

Sensitivity to H2 Component Capital Costs


Preliminary conclusions

PreliminaryConclusions

  • H2 can be modeled in the WinDS model

  • H2 from wind can be attractive at reasonable electrolyzer and fuel cell cost and performance

  • Wind market penetration may be increased if the cost and performance of the electrolysis-fuel cell cycle can be improved


Additional modeling required

Additional Modeling Required

  • Refine existing WinDS-H2 model

  • Implement consensus suggestions from this workshop – both data and model

  • Include competitive sources of H2

    • Distributed electrolysis

    • Natural gas SMR

    • Biomass

    • Hydroelectricity


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