Trends in Educational Assortative Marriages in China from 1970 to 2000 Hongyun Han University of Wisconsin-Madison

1. Department of Sociology Center for Demography and Ecology hhan@ssc.wisc.edu Trends in Educational Assortative Marriages in China from 1970 to 2000Hongyun HanUniversity of Wisconsin-Madison This study shows that couples are more likely to marry within their own educational groups between 1970 and 2000, as China’s economy grew rapidly. The rising spousal resemblance and declining intermarriages among college (or high school) grads and elementary (or illiterates) indicate a widening social distance in China. BACKGROUND RESULTS CONCLUSION • Rising spousal resemblance as China’s economy boomed • Declining intermarriages across any educational barriers • Supporting evidence to the Modernization hypothesis • Soared GDP per capita • Transition from distribution power to market • Increasing mean age at first marriage • Growing educational attainment for both men and women • How about homogamy? • Minor decrease between 1970 and 1980, confirmed Raymo&Xie (2000) • 30% increase between 1980 and 2000 • Growth slows down in the late 1990s • 2.2 times more like to marry those w/ similar education in 2000 STUDY STRENGHTHEN AND LIMITATION OBJECTIVES • To examine the trends in educational assortative mating among newlyweds • To assess the modernization hypothesis (Smits et al., 1998) • New and recent trends at national level • Large representative sample • Yet without differentiating regional variances (urban/rural) • How about heterogamy? • People are less likely to marry down (cross one education barrier) • College grads : least, twice less likely to marry down in the late 1980s than 1970s. • Senior high grads: 50% drop in odds of intermarriages, below 0.2 in 2000. • Junior high grads: 30% drop • Elementary: 50% drop • Few, yet similar declines in intermarriages among couples crossing two or more educational barriers • Patterns level off for highly educated people in the late 1990s WHAT WE LEARNED DATA AND METHODS • Data: Pooled 2000 China Censusand 2001 Demographic Reproductive Health Survey • Sample: 260,216 newlyweds composing of 6 marriage cohorts • Education: 5 categories • Log-linear models • Homogamy : estimate the trend in the odds of homogamy • Crossing models: estimate the trends in odds of crossing educational barriers for newlyweds • Model specifications follow Schwartz and Mare (2005) and Mare (1991) STUDY IMPLICATIONS • May indicate greater social distance among groups • May contribute to growing economic inequality between couples and their children. • Result in polarization of marriages andhouseholds • Highly educated couples (>12 yrs) • Very low educated couples (<6 yrs) Acknowledgement: This study is under the supervision of Alberto Palloni, Christine Schwartz and Jim Raymo. The author is solely responsible for any errors and mistakes.