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Disruption! Where do we go from here?

Disruption! Where do we go from here?. Brough Turner Senior Vice President, Chief Technology Officer. When Disruption Works Incumbents are best at sustaining Innovations while new entrants can triumph with disruptive innovations. Sustaining innovations.

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Disruption! Where do we go from here?

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  1. Disruption! Where do we go from here? Brough Turner Senior Vice President, Chief Technology Officer

  2. When Disruption Works Incumbents are best at sustaining Innovations while new entrantscan triumph with disruptive innovations Sustaining innovations Range of customer demand for performance Performance Customer demandfor performance Pace of technological progress Disruptive innovations Time Data: The Innovator’s Solution: Using Good Theory to Solve the Dilemmas of Growth (Harvard Business School Press, 2003) The Innovator’s Dilemma, Clayton Christensen, 1997

  3. Telephony Backbone Equipment Enterprise Platforms Chips ISDN &CLASS Access Telecom Value Chain More regulated than Christensen’s examples, still: • PBX industry • Transmission equipment industry • Central office switches • Death of distance

  4. ! Internet Backbone Equipment Enterprise Platforms Telephony Chips Access New Value Chain AdvancedServices • Internet — largest opportunity in new applications and services • VoIP gaining traction — international wholesale, then IP-PBX & now consumer VoIP over fixed broadband access • Mobile broadband (pure connectivity) — still in the future

  5. Source: Exhibit 12, The “Dumb Pipe” Paradox, Craig Moffett, Bernstein Research, February 27, 2006 Profits in Commodities • Can be highly profitable for the low-cost producer • Dell Computer’s focus on operational issues

  6. Slow Evolution to Dumb Pipes • Fixed Internet access • Leverage monopoly status — lawyers & lobbyists • Triple play and other bundles • Mobile Internet • Technology not there yet — limited bandwidth; QoS still requires coordination across layers • Walled gardens; Quad play (FMC) • Competition — service layers will go modular, eventually

  7. Evolution of Mobile Voice and Text • Startups trying to move SMS volume to P2P apps • MXit, Hotxt, Text2me, Pica, Juize, Crickee • Others trying to move voice to VoIP • Mig33, Vyke, Woize, Nimbuzz, Rok Viper, AQL, Fring,Mobiboo, Truphone plus Skype affiliates • Combo offerings — not just voice • Communications (email, chat, IM, voice messaging, voice & video) • Community (moblogging, voicecasting) • Pica – 3M users in China; US VC $ • Skype already handling 7% of all international voice minutes • Handset limitations an obstacle • Less of an issue among youths using latest cool devices

  8. AdvancedServices Where’s the Money? • Consumer devices — handsets, Cisco, Moto, … • Sales, with long tail — • Facilitating transactions — • Targeted advertising — • Monetization strategy for most of Web 2.0 • Communities • IMs, MySpace, YouTube, Craig’s List, Wikipedia • Monetized by ads, premium services, donations • Specialized information • WestLaw, Ovum, IEEE Explore, Angie’s List • Subscription or monetized by ads

  9. Specifics — Social Networking • Communities are key • Platforms must facilitate diverse user communities • Individuals participate in multiple communities • I use four instant messengers and have multiple homepages • MySpace dominant today, but other platforms (even a mobile operator’s platform) have a chance • Need to support growth of multiple user communities • Not just family and friends on one operator • At most, extra benefits for users on same operator

  10. Picking Markets • Premium services • # people making > $200/day • Mobile Infrastructure • Countries by population • Youth services • Countries by # of children “Worldmapper” maps by SASI Group (University of Sheffield) and Mark Newman (University of Michigan)

  11. With Google SOAP Search API, your computer can do the searching for you. Services as Platforms • Wildly successful Internet services are platforms • Amazon, eBay, Google, Flickr … • Publish APIs, interfaces, web services • Facilitate others building upon your service • Foster “mashups”

  12. NMS Platform Solutions • Helping you develop communications applications • Telecom complexity • IN migrating to IMS • OSS/BSS, etc. • Business complexity • Access to operators, NEPs, other partners “We handle telecom complexity so you can focus on your application”

  13. Communications Opportunity • Internet plus mobile phones driving global economic, social, and political benefits • Underlying technologies improving exponentially • 6.5 B people, 2.4 B mobile phone subscribers • Existing networks need continual upgrade Enormous opportunity ahead! Have fun, help mankind, make money !

  14. Questions? Brough Turner rbt@nmss.com +1 508 271 1312 blogs.nmss.com/communications

  15. BUSINESS MARKET TECHNOLOGY APPLICATIONS END USER

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