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Idaho Workforce Development Council Meeting January 8, 2015

Economic Update. Idaho Workforce Development Council Meeting January 8, 2015. Bob Uhlenkott Chief Research Officer Idaho Department of Labor. Today’s Topics. Economic Update / Labor Market Components Employment, Unemployment, Labor Force and Gas Prices

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Idaho Workforce Development Council Meeting January 8, 2015

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  1. Economic Update Idaho Workforce Development Council MeetingJanuary 8, 2015 Bob Uhlenkott Chief Research Officer Idaho Department of Labor

  2. Today’s Topics • Economic Update / Labor Market Components • Employment, Unemployment, Labor Force and Gas Prices • Transmittal #7 – GSA Approval for Job Listing Scraping Data • Client Job Listing Matches – Choose Idaho • Economic and Labor Market REAL-TIMEMetrics - Publishing

  3. Economic Report: Executive Summary November - 2014 Idaho’s number of nonfarm jobs remained unchanged in November from the previous month while the unemployment rate decreased by two-tenths to 3.9%. Idaho • Unemployment Rate is 3.9% for November. • Labor force participation rate decreased by 0.2% for November. • Total nonfarm employment level remained unchanged from October. Nation • The unemployment rate remained unchanged from October at 5.8%. • Total nonfarm increased 0.2% from October. Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Idaho Department of Labor, U.S. Census Bureau

  4. Idaho Nonfarm JobsCurrent Employment Statistics Annualized Forecasts November 2014 YOY = 1.9% Short Term forecast through 2016 = 1.6% Long Term forecast through 2022 = 1.5% Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Idaho Department of Labor, U.S. Census Bureau

  5. Prerecession Level - “3rd Derivative” Forecast Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Idaho Department of Labor, U.S. Census Bureau

  6. Prerecession Level - “3rd Derivative” Forecast Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Idaho Department of Labor, U.S. Census Bureau

  7. State and National Unemployment RateCurrent and Historical Compared Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Idaho Department of Labor, U.S. Census Bureau

  8. Idaho and National Labor Force Compared Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Idaho Department of Labor, U.S. Census Bureau

  9. Labor Force Participation Rate

  10. November 2014 Unemployment Rate with a 70 percent Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) 13.9% 3.9%

  11. Oil and Gas Prices Today $48.59 a barrel $2.18 a gallon

  12. Gas Prices – National Average (1976-2015) All-Time Low 1998 Source: US Dept. of Energy

  13. What would be all-time lows in real terms? $48.59 a barrel Fall to $14.00 a barrel $2.18 a gallon Fall to $1.35 a gallon

  14. Crude Oil Profit Levels OPEC $10 to $20 per barrel to be lucrative Alaska Drilling $70 to $80 per barrel to be lucrative SHALE Around $62 a barrel to be lucrative Source: US Dept. of Energy

  15. National Bureau of Economic Research Business Cycles Analysis and the “R” word! Peak to Peak Analysis Idaho Department of Labor – Communications and Research. - 2014

  16. Real-Time Labor Statistics Job Listings Data Transmittal #7 Internet Job Scraping Technology 1 - Internal client job listing matches for Choose Idaho. 2 - Economic and labor market indicators for research and publication.

  17. Real-Time Labor Statistics Job Listings Data • According to these data there are: • 28,000 unique job listings in November 2014 • 15,000 of them are NEW and unique Job Listings in the last thirty days.

  18. Real-Time Labor Statistics Job Listings Data • HOT JOBs in REAL TIME

  19. Thank You! Bob Uhlenkott Bob.uhlenkott@labor.idaho.gov 208.332.3570 ext. 3217

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