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www.srs.fs.fed.us/trends FUTURES FORUM ON RECREATIONAL BOATING Ken Cordell Gary Green U.S. Forest Service, Athens, Georgia AND Becky Stephens University of Tenn. Trends and the Significance of Demographic Shifts NSRE NATIONAL SURVEY ON RECREATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT SINCE 1960

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Trends and the Significance of Demographic Shifts

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www.srs.fs.fed.us/trends

FUTURES FORUM ON RECREATIONAL BOATING

Ken Cordell

Gary Green

U.S. Forest Service,

Athens, Georgia

AND

Becky Stephens

University of Tenn.

Trends and the Significance of Demographic Shifts


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NSRE

NATIONAL SURVEY ON RECREATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT

SINCE 1960

THE UNITED STATES’ ON-GOING NATIONAL RECREATION SURVEY


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1960:

Flower Children,

18-horse Johnson,

VW Camper Vans,

Elvis and The Beatles,

Vietnam, Kennedy,

Family Vacations,

Chevy Impala V8


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2001:INTERNET, WILD STOCK RIDE, HONDA SUVs, BUSH/GLOBAL WARMING, WEALTH, INTERSTATES, B2 STEALTH, JOBS, GROWTH, ADVENTURE RECREATION


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LONG-TERM TRENDS

LONG-TERM

TRENDS


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RECENT TRENDS


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Trends

  • Almost 90 percent of Americans participated in Outdoor Recreation

  • Walking, picnicking, sightseeing,

  • swimming, fishing, and bicycling

  • the most popular activities

1980's

  • 94.5 percent participated

  • List of pursuits getting longer, more diverse

  • Walking, sightseeing, swimming, picnicking, boating most popular

1990's


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NOW

  • Over 97 percent report activities

  • Most are adding to their recreation menu

  • Living longer means staying active longer


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Shifts in Outdoor Recreation Markets

  • Technology innovations are making more areas, more accessible:

  • -Jet boats

  • -Light-weight gear

  • -Sub-zero sports clothing

  • -Sticky climbing shoes

  • -Night scopes

  • Risk/Adventure pursuits are gaining in popularity:

  • -Base jumping

  • -Falls shooting

  • -Mountain boarding

  • - “Jet skiing”

  • Traditional outdoor activities still growing (moderately); consumptive activities declining; viewing/learning activities on the rise.


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Activities Adding the Most Participants 16 or older, 1982-2001

Millions

GrowthNo. in 2000

Walking85.4179.0

Bird watching50.071.2

Hiking48.473.1

Swimming/river,

lake, or ocean36.492.9

Sightseeing32.7114.0

Picnicking31.8116.6

Bicycling27.483.9

Developed camping22.852.8

Motor boating17.851.4

Off-road driving17.336.7

Backpacking14.623.4


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Regions Where Participants Reside


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Percentage of Americans 16 and Older


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Percentage of Americans 16 and Older

(2001)


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Comparison of South Carolina, South, and Nation

(Percentage Participating)


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Our Changing American Society

  • About 1 million new immigrants per year

  • More people:1990248 mm

    2000275 mm

    2020325 mm

    2050404 mm

    2075481 mm

    2100571 mm (Double)

  • Getting older: Median age 3538 (by 2020)

  • Changing ethnicities by 2050:

    Anglo Americans 76%50%

    African Americans 12% 15%

    Hispanic Americans 9% 21%

    Asian Americans 4% 11%


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Forecasts

Projected Demand to 2020

Millions Indexed Change

Participating (Base year is 1995)

Activities(1995)PeopleDaysTrips

Water-Based

Going to the Beach1241.241.171.17

Motor Boating 471.211.141.16

Swimming 781.211.121.09

Fishing 581.171.171.10

Canoeing 141.151.281.14

Rafting/Floating 151.071.171.10

Winter-Based

Cross-Country Skiing 61.260.961.12

Downhill Skiing 171.221.311.36

Snowmobiling 71.091.321.35

Forecasts


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Forecasts

Projected Demand to 2020

Millions Indexed Change

Participating (Base year is 1995)

Activities(1995)PeopleDaysTrips

Land-Based

Sightseeing1131.321.431.43

Non-consumptive wildlife1171.291.091.15

Biking 571.281.251.45

Family Gatherings1241.241.230.83

Hiking 481.231.241.23

Horseback Riding 141.231.221.29

Rock Climbing 81.211.151.03

Walking1341.211.29 --

Camping 421.191.361.30

Backpacking 151.111.151.08

Off-Road Driving 281.050.991.06

Hunting 190.910.991.03

Forecasts


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DEMOGRAPHIC FOOTPRINTS OF BOATERS


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  • CANOERS

  • 43 % female

  • 87 % non-Hispanic white

  • 33 % under 25, 77 % under 45

  • Incomes mostly between $25K and $75K

  • Under 80 % urban

  • Favored by Northeasterners and Midwesterners


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  • KAYAKERS

  • 44 % female

  • 85 % non-Hispanic white

  • 60 percent under 35, 40% under 25

  • Over 1/3 earn under $25K

  • 85 % urban

  • Heavier participation in New England and Pacific Coast states


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  • SAILERS

  • 48 % female

  • 84% Non-Hispanic white

  • 44 % under 35

  • Middle income earners, also sig- nificant high income earners

  • 87 % urban

  • Especially favored in the North-east


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  • WINDSURFERS

  • 67 % male

  • Almost ½ under 25, 56 % under 35

  • 1/3 between $25-$50K, 1/3 over $100K

  • Northeast and Pacific Coast


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MOTOR BOATERS

  • 52% between $25 and $75

  • 77% urban

  • Favored in the Lake, Midwest and South Atlantic states

  • 58 % between 25 and 55

  • 57 % male


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WATER SKIERS

  • 60 % male

  • 86 % white, 8 % Hispanic

  • 86 % under 45

  • Favored by Prairie and Mountain states residents


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PERSONAL WATER CRAFT

  • 54 % male

  • 79 % white, 11 percent Hispanic

  • 66 % under 35

  • Favored in the Midwest and South


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Estimated ratios of percentage of participants to percentage of total population for outdoor activities by race and country.


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Estimated ratios of percentage of participants to percentage of total population for outdoor activities by age and income.


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BEING MORE EFFECTIVE IN OUTREACH, LISTENING, AND INFORMING


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The Urban

Beach Boys

(3.8%)

Young

New England

Wind Surfers

(0.9%)

The Inactives

(22.0%)

Segmenting for more effective

communication and education

Nature

Lovers

(27.2%)

The Noreaster

Musclers (6.2%)

The Thrill

Seekers (8.3%)

Hunt-n-Fish

Men’s Motor Club

(6.3%)

The Take it Easies

(25.3%)


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Nature Lovers (27.2%)

  • Viewing/photographing birds, flowers, wildlife, fish, natural scenery, and gathering mushrooms and berries, and learning in nature centers, visitor centers, historic sites and archeological sites

  • Not into hunting, fishing, active sports or motorized activities, and not into boating

  • 61 % female, mostly white, middle aged and seniors, not foreign born

  • New England and Prairie states well represented

  • Donate to civic or charitable organizations, spend time with grand children, invest, creative arts, collect things and garden, and read environmental magazines

  • Believe humans are abusing the earth, the balance is delicate, and we are on a course for catastrophe


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Hunt-n-Fish Men’sMotor Club (6.3%)

  • Hunt, fish, motorized, camp, motorboat (53%), canoe

  • Don’t participate in beach activities or much in viewing/learning

  • 88% male, 90% white, under 45, U.S. born, much more rural, Prairie and Southern

  • Belong to wildlife conservation group, read nature magazines, woodworking, own a business, garden, have pets and do home improvements

  • Humans were meant to rule over the earth and environmental crisis is exaggerated


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The Urban Beach Boys (3.8%)

  • Diving, Surfing, Snorkeling, Kayaking, Sailing, Backpacking, Snowboarding, Saltwater Fishing, Water Skiing, Jet Skiing. more active than most people in most activities, except hunting

  • Two-thirds white, Asian/Pacific Islanders well represented, majority under 35, U.S. born, and urban

  • South Atlantic and Pacific Coast

  • Regularly like to go to movies, use internet at home, participate in environmental groups, invest, and attend classes, involved as a youth volunteer, into the arts

  • Like most Americans feel humans are abusing the earth, we’re on a course for ecological catastrophe and the balance of nature is delicate


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Young New England Wind Surfers (0.9%)

  • Wind surfing (71%), surfing, kayaking (48%),

    sailing (68%), non-motorized winter activities,

    diving, snorkeling, rowing (28%) and canoeing (55%)

  • More active than most Americans in all activities, including water and jet skiing

  • Over 85% white; two-thirds male; one half under 25; urban, U.S. born

  • New England and Pacific Coast residents strongly represented

  • Into movies, lifelong learning classes, participate with environmental groups, regularly attend movies, belong to a country club, on the internet and into the stock market

  • More strongly believe environmental crisis is greatly exaggerated, even though we are nearing the earth’s limits


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The Inactives(22.0%)

  • Not very active in outdoor activities, except for a bit of walking, family gatherings, and picnicking

  • 55% female, blacks and Hispanic well represented, spread across age groups, mostly urban and U.S. born

  • Spend time with grandchildren, cook at home, regularly attend religious services, collect things like coins and antiques

  • More strongly believe human ingenuity will insure the earth, humans were meant to rule over nature, humans can control nature, and the environmental crisis is exaggerated


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The Noreaster Musclers (6.2%)

  • Cross-country skiing, rowing (31%), kayaking (28%), canoeing (53%), downhill skiing, sailing (25%), hiking, visiting a wilderness, backpacking, snowboarding, bicycling and fishing

  • They don’t hunt, but are active in most other activities

  • Somewhat more male than female, white and Asian/Pacific Islander, young to middle aged (not seniors), urban, from New England, Prairie, Mountain and Pacific states

  • Members of conservation groups, use the internet at home, attend concerts, have vacation property, invest, belong to a country club

  • More belief that we are abusing the earth, the balance of nature is delicate and we may be heading for disaster


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The Thrill Seekers (8.3%)

  • Waterskiing (62%), jet skiing (68%), rafting (46%), snowmobiling, snowboarding, motorboating (83%), downhill skiing, driving off-road, rowing and canoeing

  • Very active across a large number of activities

  • Equally male/female, white and American Indians well represented, two thirds under 35, almost all born in the U.S., from Plains states

  • Youth volunteers, belong to a country club, use the internet, attend movies, watch sports on TV, gather with friends and neighbors

  • Balance of nature is delicate, humans are abusing the earth, and a disaster is looming


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The Take it Easies (25.3%)

  • Sightseeing, driving for pleasure, picnicking, visiting historic sites, family gatherings, visiting nature centers, and walking

  • They don’t ski, boat, hunt, fish, or view/photograph

  • More female than male, Blacks and Asian/Pacific Islander well represented, all ages, all regions

  • Attend cultural events, go to movies and church, raise children and spend time with grandchildren, use the internet, and eat out

  • Believe humans can insure the liveability of the earth and the environmental crisis is exaggerated


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THE PUBLIC IS CONCERNED ABOUT OUR ENVIRONMENT


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Source: Roper Organization, 1990; Times Mirror, 1994; NEETF, 1998.


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Percentages Indicating Environmental Protection

or Economic Development are Highest Priority

Source: Gallup/CNN/USA Today Poll, April 13-14, 1999.


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SUMMARY POINTS

  • Our society has changed dramatically in the last few decades, and it shows up in our outdoor recreation

  • Outdoor recreation is growing and diversifying as a part of Americans’ lifestyles, almost everyone is involved at some level

  • Walking, birding, hiking, swimming are at the top of the activity growth list, not far behind is motor boating


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SUMMARY CONTINUED

  • Population is likely to continue its rapid growth in the next few decades, with some groups literally exploding in numbers

  • Increasingly we see women, Asian/Pacific Islander, Hispanic, older and urban people participating, although outdoor recreation is still very much a white male pursuit

  • All indicators point to continuation of the rise of outdoor recreation in the future, and more demands on water and land resources

  • At the same time people are showing strong concern for the environment and its water and land resources

  • Resource managers will be challenged like never before, and, there will be increasing needs for more effective sharing of information about safety and impacts

  • Need to be smart about outreach and education strategies


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www.srs.fs.fed.us/trends


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