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Life At The Top Of The S-Curve. Randy Rettberg. Example: Disk Density. 2x / 12 mo. MBytes / In 2. Largest areal density achieved during year. Example: Disk Costs. 0.5x / 12mo. Cents / MByte. 2000: 75 GB / $400 2003: 200 GB / $250. 2004. 2000. 1995. Moore’s Law (1979).

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example disk density
Example: Disk Density

2x / 12 mo

MBytes / In2

Largest areal density achieved during year.

example disk costs
Example: Disk Costs

0.5x / 12mo

Cents / MByte

2000: 75 GB / $400

2003: 200 GB / $250

2004

2000

1995

stages of the growth curve
Stages of the Growth Curve

Fear

Resignation

Greed

Love

lots of growth curves
Lots of Growth Curves

Television

E-cash

Movies

Images

Mp3

Games

Web

Gopher, Archie

Streams

FTP

Email

Mag tape transfer

Remote resource sharing

Terminal access

Terminal linking

what happened
What Happened?
  • It was never real – the bubble burst.
  • Just the normal business cycle. It will get better soon.
  • Gravity - What goes up must come down.
  • The Internet did not change everything.
  • It was Y2K after all.
or how about
Or How About:
  • We got more technology than we wanted.
    • How fast is the CPU in your computer?
    • Way too much dark fiber?
    • How do you fill a 200 GB disk?
  • Monopolization did stifle innovation.
  • Napster lost.
  • Copyright went wrong, blocking the media revolution.
  • We got picture cell phones instead of phonecalls over the Internet.
life at the top of the s curve19
Life at the Top of the S-Curve
  • It might last a long time
  • It might not be fun
  • It might slow everything else
  • Where shall we look?
dow 1930 2003
Dow 1930 - 2003

1999

1966

1982

1942

life at the top of the s curve21
Life at the Top of the S-Curve
  • It might last a long time
  • It might not be fun
  • It might slow everything else
  • Non-technical issues dominate
sun micro healthcheck
Sun Micro HealthCheck

Open

Escalations

22

700

20

600

18

16

500

14

HealthChecks Complete

400

12

10

300

8

200

6

4

100

2

0

0

7/99

1/00

7/00

strategy 1
Strategy 1

Grow out of it!

3 growth laws
3 Growth Laws

2x / 6-9 mo

2x / 12 mo

Packets / Sec

Bytes / In2

Transistors / In2

2x / 18 mo

2000

storage service providers
Storage Service Providers

Storage Networks

Arsenal Digital Solutions

Storage Computer

Storage Way

networks for storage
Networks for Storage

iSCSI

TCP / IP

TCP / IP

strategy 2
Strategy 2

Politics!

Don’t let them stop innovation!

media as an example
Media As An Example
  • Napster case cut growth of mp3
    • Less demand for mp3 players
    • Less demand for audio In/Out
    • Less demand for E-cash to pay for music
  • DMCA – Copyright gone wrong
    • Uncertainty for media investors
    • Uncertainty for broadband deployment
    • Uncertainty for computer hardware

Remember that CD adoption was driven by “oldies”

less obvious blocks
Less Obvious Blocks
  • No e-money – Banks and Credit Card Laws (Factoring)
  • No phone calls – Telephone industry
  • No security – National cryptography policy and terrorism
strategy 3
Strategy 3

Go sideways!

computer communications revolution
Computer/Communications Revolution

2100 - Nanotechnology

2050 - Internet Reaches Ubiquity

2000 – Y2K Averted

1970 - Internet Created

1945 - Computers Created

1900 - Electric Lighting

1800 - Industrial Revolution

1500 - Renaissance

1000 - Middle Ages (Nothing Happens)

0 - Roman Empire

the internet changes everything
Still to come:

Movies

Television

Telephone

Money

Security

Telemetry

“The Internet Changes Everything”

Where are they?

a sideways approach
A Sideways Approach
  • Connect everything to the Internet.
  • What are the protocols?
  • Functionally distributed intelligenceinstead of central intelligence.
  • Replace analog audio, video, IR control, RF control, RS-232, with Internet.
  • Who is in control? Everybody!
sideways at sun
Sideways At Sun
  • End-to-end checksums
  • Less virtualization not more
  • Non-volatile write buffer
  • IDE Disks
    • 2.5 times less expensive at same capacity, same RPM
    • 3.5 times less expensive at same capacity, 2/3 RPM
    • Less firmware
    • No disk-to-disk interconnect
strategy 4 understand the innovator s dilemma
Strategy 4:Understand The Innovator’s Dilemma.

The Innovator’s Dilemma, When New Technologies Cause Great Firms to Fail, Clayton Christensen, 1997.

principles of disruptive innovation
Principles of Disruptive Innovation
  • Customers and investors determine allocation of resources
  • Small Markets don’t solve the growth needs of large companies
  • Markets that don’t exist can’t be analyzed
  • Technology supply may exceed market demand

From The Innovator’s Dilemma, Christensen

stages of disruptive innovation
Stages of Disruptive Innovation
  • Disruptive technologies were first developed within established firms
  • Marketing personnel then sought reactions from their lead customers
  • Established firms step up pace of sustaining technological development

From The Innovator’s Dilemma, Christensen

stages of disruptive innovation cont
Stages of Disruptive Innovation (cont.)
  • New companies were formed, and markets for the disruptive technologies were found by trial and error
  • The new companies moved up market
  • Established firms belatedly jumped on the bandwagon to defend their customer base

From The Innovator’s Dilemma, Christensen

the answer
The Answer

Give responsibility for disruptive technologies to organizations whose customers need them.

From The Innovator’s Dilemma, Christensen

strategy 5 listen to the young
Strategy 5Listen to the young.
  • The innovator’s dilemma applies everywhere.
  • Early retirement is sweeping the industry
strategy 6 bootstrap companies
Strategy 6Bootstrap Companies
  • Government funding
  • Consulting and support
  • Grow at the same rate as your market
  • Reduced expectations for capital
  • Keep it simple
  • Own your business
strategy 7 join a new curve
Strategy 7Join a New Curve

SyntheticBiology

Computers

homework
Homework
  • Don’t believe what industry leaders say. They don’t know.
  • Target new technologies at new markets.
  • The weaknesses of disruptive technologies are their strengths.
  • Use the growth curves.
  • Examine the unexamined. Do the unexpected.
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