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FDI and Stock Market Development: Complements or Substitutes? Stijn Claessens Daniela Klingebiel Sergio Schmukler Conference: THE FDI RACE: WHO GETS THE PRIZE? IS IT WORTH THE EFFORT? Washington, D.C., October 3-4, 2002 Motivating Facts Rapid development of equity markets during 1990s

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Fdi and stock market development complements or substitutes l.jpg

FDI and Stock Market Development: Complements or Substitutes?

Stijn Claessens

Daniela Klingebiel

Sergio Schmukler

Conference: THE FDI RACE: WHO GETS THE PRIZE? IS IT WORTH THE EFFORT?

Washington, D.C., October 3-4, 2002


Motivating facts l.jpg
Motivating Facts Substitutes?

  • Rapid development of equity markets during 1990s

  • Increased cross-border capital flows

    • In the 1990s, changes in the composition of capital flows: bank lending was replaced by FDI and by portfolio investment

  • At the same time

    • Increased migration of listing, trading, and capital raising to international financial centers

    • Supported by advances in technology, in particular remote access to trading systems allowing for listing and trading of securities abroad

    • And changes in the nature of trading systems


Motivating facts3 l.jpg
Motivating Facts Substitutes?

  • Questions on future of stock exchanges, especially in emerging markets

  • Questions with respect to the relation between FDI and stock market development:

    • Is FDI a complement or substitute of capital markets?

    • Does FDI help develop domestic and international capital markets?


Existing work l.jpg
Existing Work Substitutes?

  • Aggregate analysis of stock markets development

    • Stresses role of legal framework, macro stability

  • Micro perspective (firm-level) studies

    • Effects of cross listings on firm cost of capital, maturity, liquidity, valuation, etc.

    • Some studies on type and country origin of companies migrating abroad

  • Focus on ‘international’ companies, less on the relative importance of internationalization

  • Findings do not fully explain why local markets are shrinking against background of improved local fundamentals


Questions the paper tries to address l.jpg
Questions the paper tries to address Substitutes?

  • How have stock markets developed in various countries and what have been the driving factors behind their development?

  • What factors affect internationalization, i.e., what factors drive the degree of foreign listing, foreign trading and foreign capital raising?

  • What impact may these developments have on the future of domestic exchanges?

  • What is the relation between FDI and stock market development at the local and international level?


Slide6 l.jpg
Data Substitutes?

  • Domestic stock market capitalization, trading, and capital raised for 77 countries, at market level

  • Listing, trading, and capital raising abroad at firm level to obtain:

    • Domestic firms listed abroad

    • International activity at market level (trading and capital raised)

    • Estimate international market capitalization

  • Use NY and LSE data, therefore capturing 85 percent of international activity for emerging market countries

  • Explanatory data


Dependent variables l.jpg
Dependent Variables Substitutes?

  • Local stock market development:

    • Market capitalization/GDP

    • Value traded domestically/GDP

    • Value traded/market capitalization

  • Internationalization:

    • Market capitalization of international firms/total market capitalization

    • Value traded abroad/GDP

    • Value traded abroad/value traded domestically

    • Capital raised abroad/GDP

    • Capital raised abroad/capital raised domestically




Domestic stock market development 3 l.jpg
Domestic stock market development (3) Substitutes?

  • Significant increases in stock markets over 1975-1999 in all countries

  • High-income countries experienced much more pronounced increases of domestic stock market activity than low-income or intermediate income countries

  • Especially middle income countries seem to have lost out in terms of market capitalization, number of firms, and liquidity in the second half of the 1990s





Internationalization of stock market 4 l.jpg
Internationalization of stock market (4) Substitutes?

Value traded in international markets/value traded in domestic markets


Internationalization of stock market 5 coverage l.jpg

Others Substitutes?

4%

Deutsche Börse

1%

NY (NYSE and

NASDAQ)

33%

London

62%

Internationalization of stock market (5)Coverage

Trading Values for Foreign Companies

1995

2000


Summary of internationalization trends l.jpg
Summary of Internationalization Trends Substitutes?

  • Relative market capitalization of international firms has increased substantially for middle income countries (e.g., Latin America and Eastern Europe)

  • Value traded abroad has risen sharply for middle-income countries

  • Amount of capital raised abroad frequently exceeded the amount of capital raised domestically for middle income countries

  • Results vary depending on whether foreign stock market activities are normalized by domestic stock market measures or by GDP



Methodology l.jpg
Methodology Substitutes?

  • Panel data with robust standard errors

    • Alternative estimation methods (fixed effects, random effects, between)

  • Tobit regressions, use of zero observations

  • Different specifications, with different subsamples

  • Endogeneity (for domestic and international variables)

    • Instrumental variables

    • Alternatives: use of time lags

  • Report only the core results.


Regression analysis l.jpg
Regression Analysis Substitutes?

  • Stock market development and internationalization are explained in a panel regression analysis, using a number of explanatory variables:

    • GDP per capita

    • Inflation rate

    • Foreign Direct Investment

    • Law & Order Index (Country Risk Guide)

    • Shareholder Rights (La Porta et. Al)

    • Capital Account liberalization (IMF measure)

    • Trading Costs (Elkins McSherry)

  • Data cover mostly NY and London


Regression results l.jpg
Regression Results Substitutes?


Interpretation of regression results l.jpg
Interpretation of Regression Results Substitutes?

  • Domestic stock market activity and the share of stock market activities taken place abroad is driven by the same fundamentals.

  • Improving fundamentals domestically will lead to increased stock market activity, but more of this activity migrates abroad as countries’ fundamentals improve.

  • This suggest countries need to pass a certain hurdle in terms of development and legal and regulatory framework to get access to foreign markets.

  • But once hurdle passed, domestic activity as risk from internationalization.


Conclusions l.jpg
Conclusions Substitutes?

  • While better fundamentals (including higher FDI) lead to an increase in domestic stock market activity, more of this activity is expected to occur abroad as better fundamentals also spur the migration in capital raising, listing, and trading

  • Firm perspective

    • As firms from emerging markets continue to expand, they will seek larger amounts of low-cost capital, which will only be available in global markets


Conclusions23 l.jpg
Conclusions Substitutes?

  • Investor perspective

    • Global investors will seek to invest in countries with not only sound fundamentals, but also with liquid markets.

    • Domestic investors will become less captive, will also seek liquidity, in addition to good corporate governance, disclosure, etc.

    • And liquidity has network properties, concentrating in a few global exchanges.


Implications l.jpg
Implications Substitutes?

  • Countries will continue to need to improve fundamentals

    • Helps raise domestic savings, allocate it better, etc.

    • Facilitates access to foreign markets for domestic firms, with associated lower cost of capital, greater liquidity, etc.

  • But exchange activity will not remain local

    • As fundamentals improve, domestic liquidity declines; making it hard to sustain local exchanges, especially small ones.

  • Policy response: countries need to try to get full gains

    • Ease remote two-way access by local (and foreign) investors

    • Allow entry of exchange related service providers (e.g. brokers)

    • Adjust fee structures and trading systems

    • Harmonize standards for trading and listing

    • Facilitate mergers/consolidation of exchanges


Future work l.jpg
Future Work Substitutes?

  • More micro level of internationalization

    • What motivates individual firms to go abroad? How do listing costs matter? How do exchanges compete with each other?

    • How does internationalization through equity relate to other forms of domestic and international financing (loans, bonds)?

  • Exchanges and (alternative) trading systems

    • What are economies of scale in exchanges? Is there path dependence? What is role of alternative trading systems? What are good options: merge, link, harmonize? What is need in terms of consolidation in clearing/settlement, accounting, etc.?

  • Financial markets development

    • What are the options for firms which cannot easily go abroad?

    • How does this relate to the development of private equity, venture capital, and other first-stage financing markets in emerg. mkts?


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