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Empirical Issues Portfolio Performance EvaluationPowerPoint Presentation

Empirical Issues Portfolio Performance Evaluation

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Empirical Issues Portfolio Performance Evaluation Content Simple Investment Return Measurement Time-weighted VS Dollar-weighted Returns Arithmetic VS Geometric Returns Risk-adjusted Measures Jensen’s Treynor’s Sharpe Characteristics of Investment Portfolio Style Box Sector Weighting

Empirical Issues Portfolio Performance Evaluation

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Empirical IssuesPortfolio Performance Evaluation

- Simple Investment Return Measurement
- Time-weighted VS Dollar-weighted Returns
- Arithmetic VS Geometric Returns
- Risk-adjusted Measures
- Jensen’s
- Treynor’s
- Sharpe

- Characteristics of Investment Portfolio
- Style Box
- Sector Weighting

Return MeasurementTime VS DollarArithmetic VS GeometricRisk-Adjusted MeasurePortfolio Characteristics

Main question: how well does our investment portfolios do?

- As trivial as this question, a scientific measurement is tricky to formulate.
- Even average portfolio return is not as straightforward to measure
- Adjusted for risk is even more problematic

Return MeasurementTime VS DollarArithmetic VS GeometricRisk-Adjusted MeasurePortfolio Characteristics

ONE PERIOD

Return (R) = Total Proceeds/Initial Investment

Total Proceeds includes cash distributions and capital gains.

Return MeasurementTime VS DollarArithmetic VS GeometricRisk-Adjusted MeasurePortfolio Characteristics

- Suppose you have invested $10,000 in a carefully-chosen investment portfolio. Exactly 1 year from the time of initial investment, the investment portfolio gives out $100 of cash dividends, and the investment portfolio has a market value of $11,000.
R = (Dividends + Capital gains)/Initial Investment

= [$100 + ($11,000 - $10,000)] /$10,000

= 11%

- Suppose you have invested $10,000 in a carefully-chosen investment portfolio. Exactly 1/2 year from the time of initial investment, the investment portfolio gives out $100 of cash dividends, and exactly 1 year from the time of initial investment, the investment portfolio has a market value of $11,000.
MULTI-Period

Let r be the rate of return such that

Initial Investment= Present Value of All cash flows from investment discounted at r

- Suppose you have invested $10,000 in a carefully-chosen investment portfolio. Exactly 1/2 year from the time of initial investment, the investment portfolio gives out $100 of cash dividends, and exactly 1 year from the time of initial investment, the investment portfolio has a market value of $11,000.
MULTI-Period

Let r be the rate of return such that

$10,000 = $100/[(1+r)1/2] + $11,000 /[(1+r)1]

SOLVE for r, the rate of return of investment.

Initial Investment= Present Value of All cash flows from investment discounted at r

This is extremely similar to the internal rate of return. I’ve talked about IRR having some problems in Lecture 2 when I compared IRR rule to NPV rule for project selection.

Bottom Line: Calculating returns is really not that simple once we’re dealing with multi-periods.

- When you add or withdraw cash from your investment portfolio, measuring the rate of return becomes more difficult.
Trivial Example III

- Continuing with our example, with $10,000 initial investment, $100 year-end cash dividend payout, and the portfolio has a market value of $11,000. At this point, you think the portfolio is doing great and decide to invest $11,000 more on this portfolio without changing the proportions of the content in it. By the end of year 2, the portfolio is worth $23,500 with no cash dividend during year 2.

Dollar-Weighted Return:

- Calculate the internal rate of return:
Present value of= Present Value of All cash Initial Investmentflows from investment discounted at r

$10,000 =$100/[(1+r)1]

+ $11,000/[(1+r)1]+ $23,500/[(1+r)2]

SOLVE for r, the dollar-weighted rate of return of investment.

Dollar-Weighted Return:

- It is dollar-weighed because when you double the size of the portfolio, it has a greater influence on the average overall return than when you hold less of this portfolio in year 1.

Time-Weighted Return:

- Alternative to the dollar-weighed returns
- Ignores the number of shares of stock held in each period.
- For the example, it ignores the changing size of your investment portfolio when you decided to double up the investment in year-end.

Time-Weighted Return:

- 1st year return = 11% as calculated in Trivial Example I
- 2nd year return = 6.82%
- Because: at the beginning of year 2, the portfolio is worth $22,000. By the end of year 2, it is worth $23,500.
- 6.82% = ($23,500 – $22,000)/$22,000
Time-weighted return = (11% + 6.82%)/2 = 8.91%

- Which one to use? Time-weighted or dollar-weighted?

- Which one to use? Time-weighted or dollar-weighted?
- ANSWER: it depends (Typical answer from economists)
Shopping for mutual funds

- Time-weighted is better
- Since the value and the composition of most mutual funds do change frequently
Assessing your own portfolio for the past years

- Dollar-weighted is better
- Since more money you invest when the portfolio performs well, the more money you earn.

Time-weighted return = (11% + 6.82%)/2 = 8.91%

This is an arithmetic average. It ignores compounding.

Geometric average return takes into account the effect of compounding.

- If invest for 2 years, 1st year got 11%, 2nd year got 6.82%.
- Compound growth rate = (1+11%) (1 + 6.82%) = 1.17502
- Geometric average return (rG)
(1+rG) (1+rG) = (1+11%) (1 + 6.82%)

=> rG = 8.398%

RULE 1:

Arithmetic average return > Geometric average return

=> 8.91%> 8.398%

RULE 2:

“(Arithmetic average - Geometric average) ↑” as period-by-period returns are more volatile.

RULE 2:

(Arithmetic average - Geometric average) ↑ as period-by-period returns are more volatile.

In general, relationships between the two returns:

rG = r – 0.5(σ2)

- Which one to use? Arithmetic avg. or Geometric avg.?

- Which one to use? Arithmetic avg. or Geometric avg.?
- ANSWER: it depends (AGAIN!)
Past returns

- Use geometric average for looking at past returns
- Geometric average represents the constant rate of return needed to earn in each year to match the actual performance over some past investment period. Thus, it serves its purpose as the right measurement of the past performance

- Which one to use? Arithmetic avg. or Geometric avg.?
- ANSWER: it depends (AGAIN!)
Future expected returns

- Use arithmetic average for future expected returns
- It is an unbiased estimate of the portfolio’s expected future return. In contrast, since geometric average is always lower than the arithmetic average, it gives a downward biased estimate.

Why Unbiased?

- Suppose your investment portfolio has the risk of 50% of the chance, it doubles in value; and another 50% of the chance, its value drops by half. Suppose it did double in value in the first year, but dropped by half in value in the second year. The geometric average is exactly equal to zero.
- Arithmetic average return
= [100% + (-50%)]/2 = 25%

- True Expected return
= 50%(100%) + 50%(-50%) = 25% (UNBIASED!!!)

Why Risk-adjusted?

- Does earning 11% return in year 1 means you are smart?

Why Risk-adjusted?

- Does earning 11% return in year 1 means you are smart?
- ANSWER: It depends!
- Case 1: Suppose for the same level of risk, on average other investors would get 20% in year 1. 11% is really low, and you are really not that smart.
- Case 2: Suppose for the same level of risk, on average other investors would get 10% in year 1. 11% is good, and you are lucky.
Bottom line: Returns must be adjusted for risk before they can be compared meaningfully.

Formula:

αp = E(Rp) – {Rf + E(RM) – Rf]βp}

- Also known as Portfolio’s Alpha.
- Uses CAPM as benchmark.

Formula:

Tp = [E(Rp)– Rf]/βp

- Measures the slope of the line that connects the point of the portfolio in question to the y-intercept on the SML graph.
- Also uses CAPM as benchmark.

Treynor’sJensen’s

Tp = [E(Rp)– Rf]/βpαp = E(Rp) – {Rf + E(RM) – Rf]βp}

e.g., 2 Portfolios: A ~ βA = 0.9, E(RA)– Rf = 0.11, αA = 0.02

B ~ βB = 1.6, E(RB)– Rf = 0.19, αB = 0.03

M ~ βM = 1.0, E(RM)– Rf = 0.10, αM = 0

E(Ri)

Security Market

Line

E(RM)

slope = [E(RM) - Rf] = Eqm. Price of risk = 0.1

Rf

b =

[COV(Ri, RM)/Var(RM)]

bM= 1.0

Treynor’sJensen’s

Tp = [E(Rp)– Rf]/βpαp = E(Rp) – {Rf + E(RM) – Rf]βp}

e.g., 2 Portfolios: A ~ βA = 0.9, [E(RA)– Rf] = 0.11, αA = 0.02

B ~ βB = 1.6, [E(RB)– Rf] = 0.19, αB = 0.03

M ~ βM = 1.0, [E(RM)– Rf] = 0.10, αM = 0

E(Ri)

Security Market

Line

M

αA = 0.02

E(RM)

slope = [E(RM) - Rf] = Eqm. Price of risk = 0.1

Rf

b =

[COV(Ri, RM)/Var(RM)]

bM= 1.0

Treynor’sJensen’s

Tp = [E(Rp)– Rf]/βpαp = E(Rp) – {Rf + E(RM) – Rf]βp}

e.g., 2 Portfolios: A ~ βA = 0.9, [E(RA)– Rf] = 0.11, αA = 0.02

B ~ βB = 1.6, [E(RB)– Rf] = 0.19, αB = 0.03

M ~ βM = 1.0, [E(RM)– Rf] = 0.10, αM = 0

E(Ri)

Slope = TA = 0.11/0.9 = 0.12222

Security Market

Line

M

E(RM)

slope = [E(RM) - Rf] = Eqm. Price of risk = 0.1

Rf

b =

[COV(Ri, RM)/Var(RM)]

bM= 1.0

Treynor’sJensen’s

Tp = [E(Rp)– Rf]/βpαp = E(Rp) – {Rf + E(RM) – Rf]βp}

e.g., 2 Portfolios: A ~ βA = 0.9, [E(RA)– Rf] = 0.11, αA = 0.02

B ~ βB = 1.6, [E(RB)– Rf] = 0.19, αB = 0.03

M ~ βM = 1.0, [E(RM)– Rf] = 0.10, αM = 0

E(Ri)

Security Market

Line

αB = 0.03

M

E(RM)

slope = [E(RM) - Rf] = Eqm. Price of risk = 0.1

Rf

b =

[COV(Ri, RM)/Var(RM)]

bM= 1.0

Treynor’sJensen’s

Tp = [E(Rp)– Rf]/βpαp = E(Rp) – {Rf + E(RM) – Rf]βp}

e.g., 2 Portfolios: A ~ βA = 0.9, [E(RA)– Rf] = 0.11, αA = 0.02

B ~ βB = 1.6, [E(RB)– Rf] = 0.19, αB = 0.03

M ~ βM = 1.0, [E(RM)– Rf] = 0.10, αM = 0

E(Ri)

Slope = TB = 0.19/1.6 = 0.11875

Security Market

Line

M

E(RM)

slope = [E(RM) - Rf] = Eqm. Price of risk = 0.1

Rf

b =

[COV(Ri, RM)/Var(RM)]

bM= 1.0

Formula:

Sp = [E(Rp)– Rf]/σ(Rp)

- Measures the slope of the line that connects the point of the portfolio in question to the y-intercept on the CML graph.
- Also uses CAPM as benchmark, but built on the portfolio theory and the Capital Market line.

E(Rp)

Sp = [E(Rp)– Rf]/σ(Rp)

Slope = Sp

M

Portfolio P

E(RM)

Rf

σp

σM

- Which one to use?
- Answer: It depends (Our friend again!!!)
- If the portfolio represents the entire investment for an individual, Sharpe’s Measure should be used.
- If many alternatives are possible, use Jensen’s measure or the Treynor’s Measure because both are measures appropriately adjusted for risk.

- Morningstar’s Risk-adjusted rating
- Widely used in the industry
- Lots of research about mutual funds in Morningstar’s website.
- Please check out the details from the website. Will not be tested in the exam, but I want you to know it.

- Based on the idea that current make-up of a portfolio will be a good predictor for the next period’s returns.
- Mainly uses classifications of different risky assets, into different types of assets or different sectors of assets.
- 2 examples are shown as follows:

- Style Box
Vertical Axis – Dividing stocks by market capitalization.

Horizontal Axis – Dividing stocks by P/E ratios and Book-to-Price Ratio to determine whether a fund is classified as growth, blend or value.

- Sector Weighting
- Display the percentage of stocks in the fund or portfolio that is invested in each sector.e.g., BMO Dividend Fund