Supply Impact of Losing MTBE & Using Ethanol. Joanne Shore Energy Information Administration OPIS National Supply Summit San Antonio, Texas October 2002. www.eia.doe.gov. ON THE BOOKS Low sulfur gasoline 2004-2006 Gasoline toxics controls (MSAT) 2002
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Energy Information Administration
OPIS National Supply Summit
San Antonio, Texas
Low sulfur gasoline 2004-2006
Gasoline toxics controls (MSAT) 2002
Ultra-low-sulfur diesel (on- road) 2006-2010
Limitation on ether use (States) 2003-2004
Increased ethanol use (mandated or otherwise)
Improved diesel fuel quality (higher cetane, lower gravity)
More ULSD (off-road)
Further fuel type proliferation & associated distribution system strain
Other product clean up (sulfur reduction jet fuel, home heating oil)Key Product Quality Changes
Source: DOE Policy Office
Note: Historical shutdowns are for years 1990-1994 and 1995-1999.
Annual Average Shutdown Capacity
Annual Growth of Continuously Operating Capacity
Historical shutdowns are for years 1990-94, 1995-1999.Domestic Capacity Is Expected To Grow
Note: Fractions of specific components in the hydrocarbon blend are the same in all cases. Emissions reductions are based on comparisons to 1990 industry average baseline fuel composition.
Substitute Ethanol for MTBE
But Only Need Half As Much Ethanol for Same Oxygen
Remove “Light Ends” to Keep RVP Down
Remove “Heavy Ends” to Reduce Distillation Profile (Lower T50 & T90)
BALANCE BY INCREASING:
Crude Oil Throughput (utilization increase)
Production & Purchase of Clean Streams (Iso-octane, alkylate)
Volume of Ethanol Used
Product Imports If AvailableMTBE Ban Gasoline Yield Impacts
Assumes MSAT volume issues are resolved and rule does not hinder RFG production.
(1) Assumes MSAT volume issues are resolved and rule does not hinder RFG production
Net Total Imports