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ST2004 Applied Probability Cool stuff with Random Numbers

ST2004 Applied Probability Cool stuff with Random Numbers. SF MSISS also ST2005 JS - BA CS, CSLL; BAI Erasmus? ST2004 Exam: 2 hour two group projects Exam 85%; Project 15% ST2005 Exam: 3 hr half: half draws on ST2004 (including project). ST2004 Understanding Probability.

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ST2004 Applied Probability Cool stuff with Random Numbers

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  1. ST2004 Applied ProbabilityCool stuff with Random Numbers SF MSISS also ST2005 JS - BA CS, CSLL; BAI Erasmus? ST2004 Exam: 2 hour two group projects Exam 85%; Project 15% ST2005 Exam: 3 hr half: half draws on ST2004 (including project)

  2. ST2004 Understanding Probability Main Text • Tijms, “Understanding Probability”, Cambridge 2007 • Part One Probability in Action • Chap 1 has 12 Probability Questions • Chaps 2 and 3 include detailed case studies • Part Two Chap 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 13 • Projects Two mandatory (total 15%), one optional (30%) • Exam Standard formulae ,tables of random numbers • Will focus on understanding • Pseudo-Excel formulation using supplied random • Applying formulae • Will not focus on algebraic manipulation

  3. ST2004 Excel • Will use EXCEL in lab, class • Alternative computing platforms fine • Pseudo-code fine in exam • Syntax and functions • Templates & Help • Excel and Maths • Cells A1, B3 variables X, Y • contain values, instances, realisations • Excel formula: put in B3 formula =2*A1^2+3 • Math formula: Y = 2X2+ 3

  4. ST2004 - House Rules • Lectures 9:00 Mon, Tues • Mon - ‘Interesting stuff’ • Tues - how to do it • Handouts; fuller notes in ‘get’ folder; also last year • Lab 17:00 Tues, first 6 weeks • Random roll call • will select N from class randomly • Timekeeping • Late sign-up sheet • “Please think twice about interrupting class”

  5. ST2004 Other texts - alternative mathematics Swift, L: Mathematics and Statistics for Business, Management and Finance, MacMillan 1997 (Part C) Dekker, Kraaikamp, Lopuhaa, Meester: A Modern Introduction to Probability and Statistics, Springer,2005 Stirzaker, D: Probability and Random Variables: a beginner’s guide, Cambridge 2005

  6. Compulsory Projects Groups of 3 or 4 Self allocation fine; else random allocation • Dice 5% • Due 15th November - after reading week • Marks approx 2 weeks • League Tables 10% • Due 17th Jan – after term break • Marks approx 4 weeks

  7. Compulsory Projects • Part 1 • Conduct specified experiments on a ‘system’ • using computer generated random numbers • Summarise results • hence evaluate ‘system’ • show that you understand use of random numbers • Part 2 • Investigate ‘something’ in some depth • Using random numbers Marking of projects: 75% for ‘getting it right’; 25% for skill/flair

  8. Optional Extra Project NEW • Substantial individual project • Topic self nominated • In consultation • Not directly connected to ‘Part 2’ • Sign-up Week 4; Submit draft Week 10; Submit 31 Jan 2012 • Optional Project Mark 30% • Final Mark = max(100% reg mark; (70% regmark + Opt Proj)) reg mark = (Exam 85%; Compulsory Projects 15%)

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