The transportation demand forecasting model of taichung rapid transit system tcmodel 2011
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2012 Citilabs Asia User Conference. The Transportation Demand Forecasting Model of Taichung Rapid Transit System (TCModel 2011). Teresa Chang, Planner. Sept. 5, 2012. Presentation Outline. Background of the Study Area What Do We Want to Know? Why Do We Update? How Do We Update?

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The Transportation Demand Forecasting Model of Taichung Rapid Transit System (TCModel 2011)

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The transportation demand forecasting model of taichung rapid transit system tcmodel 2011

2012 Citilabs Asia User Conference

The Transportation Demand Forecasting Model of Taichung Rapid Transit System (TCModel 2011)

Teresa Chang, Planner

Sept. 5, 2012


Presentation outline

PresentationOutline

  • Background of the Study Area

  • What DoWe Want to Know?

  • Why Do We Update?

  • How Do We Update?

  • Introduction of TCModel 2011


Background study area

Background— Study Area

Taichung

Changhua

Taichung(29)

Nantou

Changhua(19)

Nantou(2)

  • Study Area – Taichung Urban

    • Countys: Taichung, Changhua, Nantou

    • Towns: 50

    • Area: 3,062.3 KM2

    • Population: 3.95millionpeople


Background railway master plan

Background -Railway MasterPlan

  • Operations

    • Taiwan Rail(gray)

    • Taiwan High Speed Rail

    • (yellow)

Taichung

  • Construction

    • TR-Red Line

    • (the project

    • completion year is 2015)

    • MRT-Green Line

    • (the project

    • completion year is 2017)

  • Planning

    • MRT-Blue Line

    • MRT-Orange Line

Nantou

Changhua


Background orange line

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Background -OrangeLine

TaichungAirport

OA4

OA3

OA2

Taichung

OA1

O1

O2

O3

O4/G7

O5

O6

O7

Downtown

O8

O9/B9

O10

O11

O12

O13

Changhua

O14

O15

O16

O17

Depot

Nantou


What do we want to know

What Do We Want to Know?

When the future wil build Orange Line , ……

  • 1

  • Percent of Private Trips to Total

  • 2

  • Orange Line Boarding (passengers/day)and Revenue

  • 3

  • Traffic Impact of the Surrounding Area

  • 4

  • Travel Time Savings (reduced travel time and new trips)

  • 5

  • Vehicle Operating Cost Savings (fuel and non-fuel operating cost reductions)

  • 6

  • Accident Cost Savings (safety benefits)

  • 7

  • Emission Reductions(CO, NOx PM10)

  • 8

  • Evaluating the Effectiveness of Policies


Why do we update

Why Do We Update?

  • Development of TC Model

  • 1994

  • 1998

  • 2003

  • 2009

  • Tranplan+ Transport

  • Base Year: 1988

  • Future Year: 2020

  • TAZs: 138(132+6)zones

  • HouseholdTravelSurvey: 1990

  • (Samples: 12,000)

  • TransCAD

  • Base Year: 2001

  • Future Year: 2031

  • TAZs : 257(253+4)zones

  • HouseholdTravelSurvey: No

  • TransCAD

  • Base Year: 2007

  • Future Year: 2031

  • TAZs: 257(253+4)zones

  • HouseholdTravelSurvey: No

  • Tranplan+ Transport

  • Base Year: 1994

  • Future Year: 2021

  • TAZs: 257 (253+4)zones

  • HouseholdTravelSurvey: 1995

  • (Samples: 1,700)

  • The HouseholdTravelSurvey has been not conducted since 1995.

  • TransCAD using dialog boxes to input which can’t take down all steps.

  • Final model only has OD matries and the highway network.

These data are out-of-date, incomplete or inaccurate.


How do we update

How Do We Update ?

  • Major updates

  • Update

  • screen line survey and cordon line survey

  • Better Data

  • Good Tools

  • Select a new modeling platform

  • (CUBE)

Update travel behavior survey

  • Better Data

  • TCModel 1994 Update

  • TCModel 2011

  • Better Data

  • Better Data

Check and adjust trip generation rates

  • Reconstruct thehighway network and transit network

  • Better Data

  • Better Data

  • Update and forecast the demographic data

  • Check and update the Traffic Analysis Zones

Better data and good tools can effectively improve model accuracy !


How do we update model methodology outline

How Do We Update ? –Model Methodology Outline

Trip Generation

  • Model Structure: Sequential 4-step model

Approaches

Module

  • Production: Cross-classification

  • Attraction: Multiple Regression

TripDistribution

  • Gravity Model

  • Impedance Function: Gamma Function

Mode Split

  • Travel Behavior Survey: Stated Preference

  • Multinomial Logit Model(MNL)

Traffic Assignment

  • HW: Multi-Modal Equilibrium Assignment Model

  • PT: Best-Path


Introduction of tcmodel 2011 model structure

Introduction of TCModel2011–Model Structure

  • 4-step Travel Demand Modeling Procedure

Mode Split

Traffic Assignment

Trip Distribution

Trip Generation


Introduction of tcmodel 2011 model characteristics

Introduction of TCModel2011–Model Characteristics

  • Traffic Analysis Zones

  • Network

  • Internal: 320 zones

  • External: 7 zones

  • Reserve: 16 zones

  • Total number of zones: 343 zones

  • Total number of links: 42,681links

  • Transit Lines: 335 lines

  • Analytical Modes

  • Analytical Period

  • Car

  • Motor

  • Bus

  • Taiwan Rail

  • MRT

  • Weekday

    • 24hrs

    • Peak hour


Introduction of tcmodel 2011 scenario management interface

Introduction of TCModel 2011–Scenario Management Interface

  • This provides a convenient interface for defining scenarios, editing and running the scenarios.

  • Planning Year: 2021(Y110), 2031(Y120) ,2041(Y130)

  • Scenarios:

    • LandUse Policies: Without TOD , With TOD

    • Traffic Policies: Bus headway, Oil prices, Parking fare


Introduction of tcmodel 2011 applications of model outputs

Introduction of TCModel 2011–Applications of Model Outputs

Model Outputs

Applications of Model Outputs

  • Boarding Passengers

  • Passengers Per Hour in Peak Direction(PPHPD or p/h/d)

  • Passenger Kilometers Traveled (PKMT)

  • Passenger Hours Traveled (PHT)

  • Vehicle Kilometers Traveled (VKMT)

  • Vehicle Hours Traveled (VHT)

  • Average Speeds

  • Volume to Capacity (V/C) Ratios

  • Station Design

  • Train Operation Plan

  • Economic Benefit-Cost Analysis

  • Financial Viability Analysis

  • Policy Analysis

  • Traffic Impact Analysis

  • Sreen Line Analysis


The end thank you

The end Thank you!

E-mail : [email protected]

Taipei . Taichung . Kaohsiung . Shanghai . Hong Kong . Macau


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