Vulnerability of Food Systems GECAFS approach

1. Vulnerability of Food Systems GECAFS approach Polly Ericksen GECAFS Science Officer 17 May 2006

2. GECAFS Vision A food-secure future for those most vulnerable to environmental stress.

3. Food Security • exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life. (definition from the World Food Summit) • is determined by multiple factors.

4. Components of Food Security & Key Elements FOOD UTILISATION FOOD ACCESS • Affordability • Allocation • Preference • Nutritional Value • Social Value • Food Safety FOOD AVAILABILITY • Production • Distribution • Exchange

5. 7 12 Food security is a function of multiple stresses Misselhorn 2005 Global Environmental Change

6. Generally food systems comprise a number of human activities involved in….. • Producing food • Processing & packaging food • Distribution & retailing food • Consuming food

7. Trends / transformations in food systems • On the production side: yield growth, technology advances and concentration, smallholder vs large farms, env. concerns • Processing, packing and distribution: long, involved food chains, standardization, concentration and globalization • Consumption: price declines, dietary transition, urbanization, CNCDs, etc.

8. Trends in Food Systems Source: Adapted from Maxwell and Slater, 2004.

9. “Global” Environmental Change Changes in the biogeophysical environment caused or strongly influencedby human activities For example changes in: Land cover & soils Atmospheric composition Climate variability & means Water availability & quality Nitrogen availability & cycling Biodiversity Sea currents & salinity Sea level

10. Why a “systems” approach? • Lends a generic view – food systems underpin food security but in multiple ways • Link multiple activities to multiple outcomes • Incorporate dynamism and feedbacks • Identify key processes in spite of the complexity • Allow for structure (determinism) and agency

11. GEC – Food System Interactions

12. Environmental Security / Natural Capital • Ecosystems stocks, flows • Ecosystem services • Access to natural capital • Social Welfare • Income • Employment • Wealth • Social & political capital • Human capital • Infrastructure • Peace • Insurance Food Security FOOD UTILISATION FOOD ACCESS • Nutritional Value • Social Value • Food Safety • Affordability • Allocation • Preference FOOD AVAILABILITY • Production • Distribution • Exchange Food Systems Research integrates Food System Activities and Outcomes Food System ACTIVITIES Producing food: natural resources, inputs, technology Processing & packagingfood: raw materials, standards, consumer demand Distributing & retailingfood: marketing, advertising, trade Consumingfood: preparation, consumption Food System OUTCOMES Contributing to: Source: Ericksen, P. (2006) Conceptualizing Food Systems for GEC Research (in prep for Food Policy)

13. Evaluating affordability of food

14. Income Fresh water for aquatic systems Nutrient stocks in soils Food affordable Tradeoffs among outcomes for two different food systems Food available from local production Food available from local production Income Biodiversity Biodiversity Fresh water for aquatic systems Nutrient stocks in soils Food affordable (after de Fries et al 2005)

15. Vulnerability • Vulnerability implies HARM or a negative consequence from which is difficult to recover • Involves social values • Function of exposure to hazards, sensitivity AND social dimensions of coping capacity (internal and external) • Coping capacity includes access to assets, diversity of options, institutional, policy and market structures • Vulnerability is dynamic and differential

16. Global environmental change • Adds to existing stresses • Has previously been addressed in terms of single impacts, primarily production • Has various interactions with food systems (activities and outcomes) • Production to consumption

17. GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE (GEC) Change in type, frequency & magnitude of environmental threats Capacity to cope with &/or recover from GEC FOOD SYSTEM SECURITY / VULNERABILITY Exposure to GEC SOCIETAL CHANGE Change in institutions, resource accessibility, economic conditions, etc.

18. Adaptive capacity– social • Social = ability or capacity or opportunity to modify processes or characteristics so as to better cope with existing or anticipated external stresses • Function of assets • Access to them • Ability to take action/ change behavior

19. Adaptive capacity- ecological • Ecological = resilience • How much shock system can take without change • Functional attributes • Ability to self-organize • Ability to adapt and learn • Often determined by slow variables, such as reservoirs of nutrients, ecosystem diversity or heterogeneity

20. Vulnerability of food systems • Any component can be vulnerable • Multiple expressions • Arises through activities/ processes • May be “masked” if we only look at outcomes • Is fundamentally about systems NOT delivering food security in an equitable and sustainable manner • Feedbacks link today to the future

21. Potential determinants food system vulnerability • Low diversity in assets or entitlements • Inequity in access to resources and capacity to take action • Institutional weaknesses/ inflexible structures • Market failures • Distance between production and consumption • Cross-scale interactions leading to surprise • Policy failures

22. Integrating FS & Vulnerability Research in the IGP: example for Nutritional Value component of Food Utilisation Determinant: food diversity milk Determinant: principal protein lentil GEC Issue Increased incidence of drought GEC Issue Increased incidence of drought Exp. to GEC Exp. to GEC FS VULNERABILITY RE FOOD DIVERSITY HIGH FS VULNERABILITY RE PRINCIPAL PROTEIN LOW Cap. to cope Cap. to cope Socec. Issue Strong lentil market Socec. Issue Weak dairy market Source: Multi-authored analysis of IGP food system vulnerability to GEC. GECAFS Report. In prep.

23. What about scale? • It influences who / what is vulnerable • Institutions, governance and policies vary with/ depend upon it • Cross-scale interactions create heterogeneity and SURPRISE (and conflict) • Tradeoffs fundamentally are across space and time • Subsidies, gains versus costs