Ocean variability to ecosystem links in the Northern California Current

1. Ocean variability to ecosystem links in the Northern California Current

2. The PDO and salmon survival correlate in the NCC Slide: W.T. Peterson

3. Copepod species composition shifts seasonally with interannual anomalies: Hooff and Peterson 2006

4. Oregon “Copepod Community Index” = CCI Ordination Axis 1 scores PC1 of copepods 2 1 CCI Timeseries 0 CCI score -1 2 Warm Cold Cold Warm -2 1 Monthly anomalies 0 2000 2000 1996 1996 2002 2002 2006 2006 2008 2008 2004 2004 1998 1998 CCI score -1 -2 PDO:CCI correlation R = 0.5, p<0.01

5. Copepod Community relates to salmon survival: Calanus Cold years Warm years

6. Vancouver Island Anomalies in zooplankton species groups show coherence along the Pacific US coast: Central Oregon Central California Southern California

7. Synchrony among North East Pacific time series (Mackas and Beaugrand 2010) Arrows indicate timing of major shifts within each region CalCOFI stratification from McGowan et al. 2003 BC/OR (British Columbia/Oregon) from Mackas et al. 2004 CA (California) from Rebstock (2002) and Lavaniegos & Ohman (2003) Kuroshio region (KUR) from Nakata & Hidaka (2003) KOR (Korean coastal water) from Rebstock & Kang (2003

8. 6 5 6 5 6 0 6 0 5 5 5 5 5 0 5 0 4 5 4 5 4 0 4 0 3 5 3 5 3 0 3 0 2 5 2 5 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 110 170 160 150 140 130 120 Climate-Forcing Hypothesis: Basin-scale circulation links the PDO to local ecosystem change. PDO - Cold Phase PDO - Warm Phase Strub, modification of Cheltonand Davis, 1982

9. Basin-scale control of ecosystems? E. Di Lorenzo J. Keister A. Thomas PT Strub WT Peterson S. Bograd P. Franks F. Schwing K. Chaak A. Bracco International collaborators: Japanese: (Chiba, Sasai, Sagaki, Tagushi, Ishidi, Nonaha), Chilean: (Escribano, Hormazabal, Pizarro, Rutllait, Montecino); Canadian (Mackas, Foreman, Pena, Crawford)

10. The test of the transport hypothesis Compare modeled transport to zoop. observations • Nested ROMS model http://www.myroms.org/) • 10 km resolution • 30 vertical layers • boundary conditions from World Ocean Atlas climatology • nudged at open boundaries • forced by NCEP winds and SST • 1950-2008 • Passive tracers released continuously along the 4 regional domain boundaries (NORTH, SOUTH, EAST, WEST) with 12-month decay scales. • Time series integrated over 1x2 degree region centered on zooplankton observations.

11. Passive tracers capture the seasonality in advection: Winter Spring Summer Fall East West South North particle concentration

12. Passive Tracer Time Series 4 From NORTH 3 2 1 0 -1 Model hindcast CCI = NORTH tracer + SOUTH tracer + EAST tracer + WEST tracer + ε From WEST 3 2 1 0 -1 From EAST 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 From SOUTH 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 Keister et al. 2011

13. Advective control of zooplankton communities? R = 0.36 Model hindcast CCI Observed CCI R = 0.95 Model hindcast CCI Observed CCI (5 year lowpass) R = 0.9 Model hindcast CCI Model PDO 1998 2000 2002 2002 2004 2004 2006 2006 2008 2008 1998 2000 (5 year lowpass) 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Keister et al. 2011

14. 1. Diapause transport in the CCS Data re-analysis • Divided Northeast Pacific into 6 ‘natural’ regions • Investigated patterns of retention and export between these regions Gulf of Alaska British Columbia Coast Washington Coast Oregon Coast Northern California Coast California Coast

15. 1. Diapause transport in the CCS Connectivity Plot for All Diapausing Copepods, 1996-2007 Diapause Emergence Latitude Seed Latitude

16. 1. Diapause transport in the CCS Connectivity Plot for Particles left year round at 10m depth, 1996-2007 Diapause Emergence Latitude Seed Latitude