Statistical analysis of solar geomagnetic storm occurrences
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Statistical Analysis of Solar Geomagnetic Storm Occurrences. By: Seth Sivak. Why We Study Geomagnetic Storms. Blackouts Cell Phone Disruption Global Positioning Satellite Failure Danger to Satellites Danger to Astronauts Possible Danger to Airline Passengers.

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Statistical Analysis of Solar Geomagnetic Storm Occurrences

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Statistical analysis of solar geomagnetic storm occurrences

Statistical Analysis of Solar Geomagnetic Storm Occurrences

By:

Seth Sivak


Why we study geomagnetic storms

Why We Study Geomagnetic Storms

  • Blackouts

  • Cell Phone Disruption

  • Global Positioning Satellite Failure

  • Danger to Satellites

  • Danger to Astronauts

  • Possible Danger to Airline Passengers


Questions that needed answers

Questions That Needed Answers

  • Are the maximums definitely at Equinox?

  • Are March and April the maximums of the year?

  • Do Geomagnetic Storms occur randomly?

  • When is the best time to turn on the radar?


Project overview

Project Overview

  • Madrigal Database (Millstone Hill)

  • Kp and F10.7 cm Solar x-ray Flux

  • 1950-2002

  • Year, MDay, DNum, BHM

  • Data Gaps

    • F10.7 : 453 missing days (2.38%)

    • Kp : 2 3-Hour missing elements (.00132%)


Broad view 52 years

Broad View (52 Years)

  • 11 Year Cycle for F10.7 X-Ray Flux

  • Double Peaked Kp Cycle

  • Downslide Peak Always Higher

  • Correlation Between F10.7 and Kp


Year breakdown kp 6

Year Breakdown Kp > 6

  • Maximum in September

  • Broad Peak in March and April

  • Minimum during December and January

  • Clear double peak on Equinox


Year breakdown kp 8

Year Breakdown Kp > 8

  • Maximum in September

  • Peak in July

  • Double Peak at Equinox

  • Peak in March and April

  • Minimum in December and January


Vernal equinox

Vernal Equinox

  • All Peaks After Equinox

  • Peak For Kp > 6 is April 4th

  • Peak For Kp > 7 & Kp > 8 is April 1st

  • High Peaks Follow in May


Autumnal equinox

Autumnal Equinox

  • Peak on Equinox

  • Sept. 22nd High for Kp > 6 and Kp > 7

  • Sept. 4th High for Kp > 7 and Kp > 8


July maximum

July Maximum

  • July 15th-17th For all Kp

  • Kp > 8 Almost Equal to Equinox

  • Has not been explained

  • Bastille Day Event (July 14th-16th 2000)

  • Other Dates:

    • July 8, 1958

    • July 15, 17, 1959

    • July 16, 1960

    • July 13, 14, 1961

    • July 6, 1974

    • July 13, 14, 1982

    • July 13, 1991


Probability kp 6

Probability Kp > 6

  • Probability calculations and why they are important

  • Histogram maximumwith high F10.7 found in March

  • Probability maximums found in February, March, May, June, July, August, and September


Probability kp 7

Probability Kp > 7

  • F10.7 > 285 maximums are found in August and September

  • F10.7 > 260 maximums are found in March, June, July, September and October

  • F10.7 > 235 maximums are found in March, June, July and September


Probability kp 8

Probability Kp > 8

  • F10.7 > 285maximums found in September

  • F10.7 > 260 maximums found in March, June, July, September and October

  • F10.7 > 235 maximums found in March, June, July and September

  • F10.7 > 210 maximums found in July


Time series and monthly profiles

Time Series and Monthly Profiles

  • Maximum in Summer Months

  • Minimum in Winter Months

  • Double Peak on Equinox

  • Probability of storms increase with higher solar flux


Bhm results

BHM Results

  • Peaks During Night Hours

  • Minimum at 9 UT for all Kp levels

  • Regular Kp > 6 and Kp > 7

  • Random Kp > 8

  • Some Physical Pattern Occurs


Conclusions

Conclusions

  • Peak in September

  • Peak in March

  • Peak in July

  • Peak During 18:00 UT - 3:00 UT (6 pm - 3 am)

  • Probability for Large Storms With High F10.7

  • Final Overview of All Models and Data


Future plans

Future Plans

  • Working till June 21st

  • More research into the July Maximum (DST and Kp 1932)

  • Writing Paper and submitting it to the Journal of Undergraduate Research

  • Web Site : www.haystack.mit.edu/~ssivak/haystack1.html (under construction)


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