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International Relations. Aula 13 Ciencia Politica CGAE FGV-EAESP Kurt von Mettenheim. Topics. Core Theories of International Relations a) Realism vs Neoliberalism b) International Society/Constructivism c) Bureaucratic Politics 2) International Political Economy

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International relations

International Relations

Aula 13

Ciencia Politica

CGAE

FGV-EAESP

Kurt von Mettenheim


Topics

Topics

  • Core Theories of International Relations

    a) Realism vs Neoliberalism

    b) International Society/Constructivism

    c) Bureaucratic Politics

    2) International Political Economy

    19th Century  Global Imbalances 2010

    3) Brazilian International Relations

    4) Questions for Discussion


Core traditions

Core Traditions

Realism: Thucydides, Hobbes, Waltz

International Politics = Anarchy

States Maximize Interests

Liberalism: Wilson, UN,

Cooperation via Norms & Institutions Better

Imperialism & World System:

Problem = N-S not E-W

Bureaucratic Politics: Foreign Policy NOT Caused by Global Politics, Must Open Black Box


Classics of realism

Classics of Realism

Thucydides: The Peloppynisian War

Inter-State Equilibrium via WAR

16th-17th Century: Diplomacy/Permanent Army as Bureaucracy and State

19th Century Equilibrium via Diplomacy


20th century

20th Century

WWI = end of Multi-Polar Equilibrium via Diplomacy

Woodrow Wilson & League of Nations = Liberalism

1945-1990 Cold War & Bi-Polar World

1990-2001 US Hegemony  Stability?

Multilateralism, UN / EU

Transational Politics – norms & construction of institutions (NGO´s, Anti-Globalization)

2001Terror & Democratization


Material from reading new handbook of political science

Material From ReadingNew Handbook of Political Science

  • Debate 1) Original "idealism" versus "realism.“

  • Debate 2) "scientific" approach versus "traditional" approach.

  • Debate 3) “neo-realism“ versus “globalists / pluralists / structuralists / Neo-Marxists / Post-Positivists / interdependence / world society / critical IR Theory”

    Kenneth Waltz (Realism) versus "bureaucratic politics," "interdependence" and other subnational and transnational concerns


Realism

Realism

Morgenthau (1947) Waltz (1979) :

GLOBAL ANARCHY / STATES 

State strategy = maximizing interests

3 "Hobbesian" motives:

1) Security;

2) Satisfy Domestic Economic Demands (of politically significant domestic population);

3) Enhance international prestige.


Core ideas of realism

Core ideas of Realism

International system = anarchy & self-help.

No single effective central authority

 nation-state must protect the economic and security interests of its citizens.

External environment determines policy.

Uncertainty fosters "Hobbesian fear“.


Hobbesian fear

Hobbesian Fear

If one state belligerent in an anarchic system, then all potentially affected states must either follow a realpolitik strategy in return or be protected by another state.

States are in a continuous state of preparedness to use force for either offensive or defensive purposes


Government strategy

Government strategy =

  • maximize power (Bull 1977)

  • avoid the development of power elsewhere (Waltz)

  • avoid relationships in which it is obliged to play a subordinate role (Galtung 1964)

  • prevent others from making advances in their relative capabilities (Grieco).


Critics of realism

Critics of Realism

1) Justifies existing power structure (Peterson 1992);

2) Reifies causality (Ashley 1986); open process  can change…

3) Underestimates importance of political discourses (Enloe 1994; Campbell 1992);

must justify power  legitimacy

4) Underestimates subjective meanings, rules and norms (Hollis and Smith 1990); human behavior set in meaning…

5) “National Interests” too broad, ad hoc concept


Complexity and post realism

Complexity and Post-Realism

Important questions in international relations:

  • How will different factions inside the opposing country react? NEED EMPIRICAL INFORMATION

  • 2) Will policy strengthen the position of friendly factions in the opposing country? NEED TWO LEVEL GAME MODEL…

    3) Will policy be seen as a precedent or sui generis? MARKETING/PUBLIC RELATIONS SHAPES PERCEPTIONS

    4) How will public opinion in the opposing country react? XENOPHOBIA OR PEACE?

    5) How will domestic public opinion react? XENOPHOBIA OR PEACE?

    6) How will the decision-maker's own party react? PRO? CONTRA?

    7) Will this option effect third parties?

    8)  Will policy  Desired outcome?


Core ideas of neo liberalism

Core Ideas of Neo-Liberalism

The international system is an anarchic, self-help one. The states that comprise it are self-regarding interest-maximizers.

Interdependence mitigates conflict by

  • economic interpenetration in terms of international trade and financial flows;

  • nation-states' collective interest in avoiding a major nuclear war; and

  • nation-states' collective interest in avoiding ecological catastrophe.

    Renovação liberal: Joseph Nye, Soft Power: The Means to Success in World Politics. 2004


Core ideas of international society constructionism

Core Ideas of International Society / Constructionism

1) Cooperation = Mutual Benefit

2) Norms/Values are basis of  “regimes”

in Policy Spheres

Human Rights

International Trade GATT, WTO

Multinational Enterprises, Code of Conduct

“Equator Principles” for sustainable finance


Third tradition in political science bureaucratic politics

Third Tradition in Political Science:Bureaucratic Politics

Realism and Liberalism predict policy from international system...

Must Open Black Box of Government

(via Organizational Theory)

Explain Foreign Policy?

1) Agencies? Organizations? Interests?

2) Agenda/actors

3) Meetings & decision making

Classic Example: Graham Allison, Essence of Decision

Cuban Missile Crisis: Realism / Liberalism wrong...

Details of Negotiations = Organizations/Actors/Process...


International political economy

International Political Economy

Competing Theories =

Liberalism

Imperialism

World System, Wallerstein

Dependent Development, Cardoso & Falleto

“Regimes” = Institutions Intl Policy Sectors


Desenvolvimento e depend ncia na am rica latina f h cardoso e e falletto

Desenvolvimento e Dependência na América Latina F.H. Cardoso e E. Falletto

  • Crítica ao Liberalismo

    • Economia: Troca, Cepal...

    • Sociologia: Tradição - Moderno

  • Crítica ao Marxismo

    • Críse Econômica e Revolução


Sistema mundial immanuel wallerstein

Sistema Mundial(Immanuel Wallerstein)

ECON Sociedade Política

----------------------------------------------------

1500 – 1750 Mercantil Extração Colônia

1750 – 1914 Troca Oligarquia Imperialismo

1914 – 1945 Ruptura/ISI Cl. Média Pop-Nacional

1945 – 1973 Multi´s/IED Nova Burg. Aut. Bur.

1973+ GlobalDivididaPós-Transição


M todo estrutural hist rico

Método Estrutural-Histórico

  • Centro e Periferia do Sistema Mundial

  • Foca: Economia – Classes Sociais – Grupos Políticos

  • Marxismo Metodológico:

  • Aonde Vem o Dinheiro?

  • Aonde Vai o Dinheiro?


Seq ncia de desenvolvimento brasileiro

Seqüência de Desenvolvimento Brasileiro

  • Situações Básicas de Desenvolvimento Dependente:

  • Enclave

  • Controle Nacional (Acordo de Taubaté)

  • ISI e Populismo Nacional

  • IED e Desenvolvimento Dependente


S culo 19 de polanyi

Século 19 de Polanyi

Quatro Pilares do Sistema Internacional

1815-1914

  • 1) Equilíbrio de Poder entre Estados

  • 2) Padrão Ouro: Câmbio de Moedas

  • 3) Mercado Auto Regulador

  • 4) Estado Liberal-Constitucional

    (Karl Polanyi, A Grande Transformação...)


Auto regula o impedido 1879 1929 press es para ruptura 1920s

Auto-Regulação Impedido, 1879-1929Pressões para ruptura 1920s

  • Desemprego

  • Tensões entre Classes

  • Desvalorização de Moedas

  • Rivalidades Imperialistas

  • 1914 começa entre guerras

  • 1931-1933 acabou padrão ouro


International political economy 1945 2000

International Political Economy, 1945-2000

  • Bretton Woods Institutions 1945

    IMF, International Monetary Fund

    IBRD, World Bank

  • GATT (based on the US Reciprocal Trade Agreements Act of 1934).

    Without Agriculture

  • Marshall Plan Aid & European Recovery

    Brazil/Latin America = Private Investment


The 1960s peaceful coexistence and competition

The 1960s. ‘Peaceful Coexistence’ and competition

(i) OEEC becomes OECD

(ii) New-style GATT ‘rounds’ beginning with the Kennedy Round 1962-67.

(iii) Weakening of the dollar— The political economy of pegged exchange- rate systems.

(iv) UK fails first attempt to join EEC (1961-63). Gaullism. USSR & E. Europe aping EEC with COMECON (or CMEA).

(v) Liberalisation of capital movements. MNCs and international credit. The Eurocurrency markets. Central-bank co-operation.


Intl political economy 1970s

Intl. Political Economy: 1970s

  • Dollar devaluation 1971-73 and the end of the Bretton Woods system (as well as of the first attempt to move to EMU).

    (ii) North Atlantic inflation and slower growth, aggravated by

    (iii) The oil shocks, especially 1973-74. OPEC

    (iv) “the end of the Golden Age” a very North-Atlantic-centred view. Contrast the NICs, especially in E. Asia, as well as Japan.

     Diffusion of growth.


Intl political economy 1980s

Intl. Political Economy: 1980s

(i) The anti-inflation struggle. The second oil shock (1979-80).

(ii) The EMS – attempted restoration of regional pegged rates in Europe.

(iii) The world debt crisis 1982 ff. Paul Volcker and US monetary leadership.

(iv) Development of the new liberalism—Thatcherism and the Washington consensus.

(v) Dénouement in the second half of the decade. Inflation overcome. The oil-price collapse 1986. Partial LDC debt write-offs (Baker & Brady Plans). Recovery of international lending flows, and especially of MNC investment.

(vi) The collapse of Communism. China.


Intl political economy 1990s

Intl. Political Economy:1990s

NAFTA and Regional Trade Pacts

Washington Consensus: Privatization and Liberalization

Regional Development Accords

Regional Development Banks

New Democracies, Post-Transition


2000 2006

2000-2006

Displacement of Political Economy by Security and War : 11 September 2001

Reform of United Nations

GATT / WTO Negotiations

International Order & Rogue Empire


Moedas de reserva

Moedas de reserva


Dual deficit

Dual Deficit


Brazil international relations

Brazil & International Relations

Western Alliance

WWII + Inter-American Treaties

International Organizations

UN

WTO

FTAA


Pol tica externa brasileira

Política Externa Brasileira

1) Plataforma Global de Comércio: Escala de Mercado, Posição América do Sul, Alternativa à China/Índia

2) Integração Regional, Mercosul >

3) Agenda de paises emergentes e em desenvolvimento em organizações internacionais (ONU, OMC, OMT, GATT)

4) Histórico de Aliança Hemisférica com EUA  Sul-Sul, BRIC…


Pol tica externa brasileira1

Política Externa Brasileira

5) Princípio de Não Intervenção e resolução pacífica

6) Procura de nova liderança internacional

* Irã, Haiti, Conselho de Segurança

* Escalada Militar, America Latina

http://www.itamaraty.gov.br/


Questions

Questions

Which theory do you think makes the most reasonable assumptions about 21st Century world politics?

Realism? Liberalism? Constructionism/International Society?

Qual é a teoria que mais descreve a política exterior brasileira? Liberalismo, Realismo, política burocrática, imperialismo?


Explore international relations

Explore International Relations

University of Michigan Political Science Resources:

http://www.lib.umich.edu/govdocs/psintl.html

http://www.etown.edu/vl/index.html (Virtual Library of International Affairs Resources)

http://www.un.org/ (UN homepage)

http://www.nato.int/ (NATO homepage)

http://www.ifrc.org/home.htm (Red Cross homepage)

http://www.iiss.org (International Institute for Strategic Studies)

http://www.csis.org/ (Centre for Strategic and International Studies)

http://europa.eu.int/index-en.htm (Europa, the European Union's server)


Journals

Journals

InternationalOrganization; InternationalAffairs;

World Politics; The World Economy;

InternationalStudiesQuarterly;

TheJournalof World Trade;

TheJournalofCommonMarketStudies;

TheJournalofEuropeanPublicPolicy;

AmericanPoliticalScienceReview;

ReviewofInternationalPoliticalEconomy;

JournalofEconomic Perspectives;

World Development.


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