International Relations. Aula 13 Ciencia Politica CGAE FGV-EAESP Kurt von Mettenheim. Topics. Core Theories of International Relations a) Realism vs Neoliberalism b) International Society/Constructivism c) Bureaucratic Politics 2) International Political Economy
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Kurt von Mettenheim
a) Realism vs Neoliberalism
b) International Society/Constructivism
c) Bureaucratic Politics
2) International Political Economy
19th Century Global Imbalances 2010
3) Brazilian International Relations
4) Questions for Discussion
Realism: Thucydides, Hobbes, Waltz
International Politics = Anarchy
States Maximize Interests
Liberalism: Wilson, UN,
Cooperation via Norms & Institutions Better
Imperialism & World System:
Problem = N-S not E-W
Bureaucratic Politics: Foreign Policy NOT Caused by Global Politics, Must Open Black Box
Thucydides: The Peloppynisian War
Inter-State Equilibrium via WAR
16th-17th Century: Diplomacy/Permanent Army as Bureaucracy and State
19th Century Equilibrium via Diplomacy
WWI = end of Multi-Polar Equilibrium via Diplomacy
Woodrow Wilson & League of Nations = Liberalism
1945-1990 Cold War & Bi-Polar World
1990-2001 US Hegemony Stability?
Multilateralism, UN / EU
Transational Politics – norms & construction of institutions (NGO´s, Anti- Globalization)
2001 Terror & Democratization
Kenneth Waltz (Realism) versus "bureaucratic politics," "interdependence" and other subnational and transnational concerns
Morgenthau (1947) Waltz (1979) :
GLOBAL ANARCHY / STATES
State strategy = maximizing interests
3 "Hobbesian" motives:
2) Satisfy Domestic Economic Demands (of politically significant domestic population);
3) Enhance international prestige.
International system = anarchy & self-help.
No single effective central authority
nation-state must protect the economic and security interests of its citizens.
External environment determines policy.
Uncertainty fosters "Hobbesian fear“.
If one state belligerent in an anarchic system, then all potentially affected states must either follow a realpolitik strategy in return or be protected by another state.
States are in a continuous state of preparedness to use force for either offensive or defensive purposes
1) Justifies existing power structure (Peterson 1992);
2) Reifies causality (Ashley 1986); open process can change…
3) Underestimates importance of political discourses (Enloe 1994; Campbell 1992);
must justify power legitimacy
4) Underestimates subjective meanings, rules and norms (Hollis and Smith 1990); human behavior set in meaning…
5) “National Interests” too broad, ad hoc concept
Important questions in international relations:
3) Will policy be seen as a precedent or sui generis? MARKETING/PUBLIC RELATIONS SHAPES PERCEPTIONS
4) How will public opinion in the opposing country react? XENOPHOBIA OR PEACE?
5) How will domestic public opinion react? XENOPHOBIA OR PEACE?
6) How will the decision-maker's own party react? PRO? CONTRA?
7) Will this option effect third parties?
8) Will policy Desired outcome?
The international system is an anarchic, self-help one. The states that comprise it are self-regarding interest-maximizers.
Interdependence mitigates conflict by
Renovação liberal: Joseph Nye, Soft Power: The Means to Success in World Politics. 2004
1) Cooperation = Mutual Benefit
2) Norms/Values are basis of “regimes”
in Policy Spheres
International Trade GATT, WTO
Multinational Enterprises, Code of Conduct
“Equator Principles” for sustainable finance
Realism and Liberalism predict policy from international system...
Must Open Black Box of Government
(via Organizational Theory)
Explain Foreign Policy?
1) Agencies? Organizations? Interests?
3) Meetings & decision making
Classic Example: Graham Allison, Essence of Decision
Cuban Missile Crisis: Realism / Liberalism wrong...
Details of Negotiations = Organizations/Actors/Process...
Competing Theories =
World System, Wallerstein
Dependent Development, Cardoso & Falleto
“Regimes” = Institutions Intl Policy Sectors
ECON Sociedade Política
1500 – 1750 Mercantil Extração Colônia
1750 – 1914 Troca Oligarquia Imperialismo
1914 – 1945 Ruptura/ISI Cl. Média Pop-Nacional
1945 – 1973 Multi´s/IED Nova Burg. Aut. Bur.
1973+ Global Dividida Pós-Transição
Quatro Pilares do Sistema Internacional
(Karl Polanyi, A Grande Transformação...)
IMF, International Monetary Fund
IBRD, World Bank
Brazil/Latin America = Private Investment
(i) OEEC becomes OECD
(ii) New-style GATT ‘rounds’ beginning with the Kennedy Round 1962-67.
(iii) Weakening of the dollar— The political economy of pegged exchange- rate systems.
(iv) UK fails first attempt to join EEC (1961-63). Gaullism. USSR & E. Europe aping EEC with COMECON (or CMEA).
(v) Liberalisation of capital movements. MNCs and international credit. The Eurocurrency markets. Central-bank co-operation.
(ii) North Atlantic inflation and slower growth, aggravated by
(iii) The oil shocks, especially 1973-74. OPEC
(iv) “the end of the Golden Age” a very North-Atlantic-centred view. Contrast the NICs, especially in E. Asia, as well as Japan.
Diffusion of growth.
(i) The anti-inflation struggle. The second oil shock (1979-80).
(ii) The EMS – attempted restoration of regional pegged rates in Europe.
(iii) The world debt crisis 1982 ff. Paul Volcker and US monetary leadership.
(iv) Development of the new liberalism—Thatcherism and the Washington consensus.
(v) Dénouement in the second half of the decade. Inflation overcome. The oil-price collapse 1986. Partial LDC debt write-offs (Baker & Brady Plans). Recovery of international lending flows, and especially of MNC investment.
(vi) The collapse of Communism. China.
NAFTA and Regional Trade Pacts
Washington Consensus: Privatization and Liberalization
Regional Development Accords
Regional Development Banks
New Democracies, Post-Transition
Displacement of Political Economy by Security and War : 11 September 2001
Reform of United Nations
GATT / WTO Negotiations
International Order & Rogue Empire
WWII + Inter-American Treaties
1) Plataforma Global de Comércio: Escala de Mercado, Posição América do Sul, Alternativa à China/Índia
2) Integração Regional, Mercosul >
3) Agenda de paises emergentes e em desenvolvimento em organizações internacionais (ONU, OMC, OMT, GATT)
4) Histórico de Aliança Hemisférica com EUA Sul-Sul, BRIC…
5) Princípio de Não Intervenção e resolução pacífica
6) Procura de nova liderança internacional
* Irã, Haiti, Conselho de Segurança
* Escalada Militar, America Latina
Which theory do you think makes the most reasonable assumptions about 21st Century world politics?
Realism? Liberalism? Constructionism/International Society?
Qual é a teoria que mais descreve a política exterior brasileira? Liberalismo, Realismo, política burocrática, imperialismo?
University of Michigan Political Science Resources:
http://www.etown.edu/vl/index.html (Virtual Library of International Affairs Resources)
http://www.un.org/ (UN homepage)
http://www.nato.int/ (NATO homepage)
http://www.ifrc.org/home.htm (Red Cross homepage)
http://www.iiss.org (International Institute for Strategic Studies)
http://www.csis.org/ (Centre for Strategic and International Studies)
http://europa.eu.int/index-en.htm (Europa, the European Union's server)
World Politics; The World Economy;
TheJournalof World Trade;