PERTEMUAN 5-6

1. PERTEMUAN 5-6 SALES FORECASTING AND FINANCIAL ANALYSIS (Perkiraan Penjualan dan Analisis Keuangan)

2. Tujuan Instruksional Khusus • Mahasiswa mampu memperkirakan penjualan produk baru

3. Proses Pengambilan Keputusan yang Rasional • Mengenali Problem Keputusan • Mendifinisikan ‘goal’ atau obyektif • Mengumpulkan semua Informasi yang Relevan • Mengindentifikasikan satu set alternatif keputusan yang layak • Memilih Kriteria Keputusan yang digunakan • Memilih alternatif yang paling baik?

4. Target users don’t know. If they know they might not tell us. Poor execution of market research. Market dynamics. Uncertainties about marketing support. Biased internal attitudes. Poor accounting. Rushing products to market. Basing forecasts on history. Technology revolutions. Why Financial Analysis for New Products is Difficult

5. Forecasters Are Often Right Figure 11.1 In 1967 they said we would have: • Artificial organs in humans by 1982. • Human organ transplants by 1987. • Credit cards almost eliminating currency by 1986. • Automation throughout industry including some managerial decision making by 1987. • Landing on moon by 1970. • Three of four Americans living in cities or towns by 1986. • Expenditures for recreation and entertainment doubled by 1986.

6. Forecasters Can Be Very Wrong Figure 11.1 (cont’d.) They also said we would have: • Permanent base on moon by 1987. • Manned planetary landings by 1980. • Most urbanites living in high-rises by 1986. • Private cars barred from city cores by 1986. • Primitive life forms created in laboratory by 1989. • Full color 3D TV globally available. Source: a 1967 forecast by The Futurist journal. Note: about two-thirds of the forecasts were correct!

7. Commonly Used Forecasting Techniques Figure 11.2

8. Handling Problems in Financial Analysis • Improve your existing new products process. • Use the life cycle concept of financial analysis. • Reduce dependence on poor forecasts. • Forecast what you know. • Approve situations, not numbers (recall Campbell Soup example) • Commit to low-cost development and marketing. • Be prepared to handle the risks. • Don’t use one standard format for financial analysis. • Improve current financial forecasting methods.

9. A-T-A-R Model Results: Bar Chart Format Figure 11.3

10. Bass Model Forecast ofProduct Diffusion Figure 11.4

11. The Life Cycle of Assessment Figure 11.5

12. Calculating New Product’s Required Rate of Return Figure 11.6 % Return Reqd. Rate of Return Cost of Capital Risk Avg. Risk of Firm Risk on Proposed Product

13. Hurdle Rates on Returns and Other Measures Figure 11.8 Explanation: the hurdles should reflect a product’s purpose, or assignment. Example: we might accept a very low share increase for an item that simply capitalized on our existing market position.

14. Return to the PIC • Seven-point scoring model: - Management interest - Customer interest - Sustainability of competitive advantage - Technical feasibility - Business case strength - Fit with core competencies - Profitability and impact

15. Hoechst-U.S. Scoring Model Figure 11.9

16. Summary …