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# Line fits to Salar de Uyuni Data Dry Season 2012 Preliminary Results - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Line fits to Salar de Uyuni Data Dry Season 2012 Preliminary Results. Location D: Plot of Full, Waxing and Waning. Data will be split into three categories: Waxing, Waning, and Full (Moon Phase < 10°). Waning Moon. First Order Polynomial (Linear). Range -10 to 11.

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Line fits to Salar de Uyuni Data Dry Season 2012 Preliminary Results

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#### Presentation Transcript

Line fits to Salar de Uyuni Data

Dry Season 2012

Preliminary Results

Location D: Plot of Full, Waxing and Waning

Data will be split into three categories: Waxing, Waning, and Full (Moon Phase < 10°)

Waning Moon

First Order Polynomial (Linear)

Range -10 to 11.

Residuals look random.

Degrees of Freedom: 40

Norm of residuals: 27.213

P(x) = -0.1659x + 77.4308

Second Order Polynomial

Similar to 1st Order

Residuals look random.

P(x) = 0.0009x² - 0.2566x + 79.1392

Degrees of Freedom: 39Norm of residuals: 27.0449

Third Order Polynomial

P(x) = -0.0000x³ + 0.0043x² - 0.4008x + 80.8029

Similar to 1st and 2nd as to fit.

0 value for x³

Degrees of Freedom: 38 Norm of residuals: 26.9991

Not much difference between the three Orders.

2nd Order appears the best.

Rerun takes out curve at end.

Waxing Moon

First Order Polynomial (Linear)

Residuals seem to separate.

Residuals between -6 to 10

One outlier at 95% confidence

Degrees of Freedom: 18

Norm of residuals: 21.3404

P(x) = 0.2236x + 68.1435

Second Order Polynomial

Curve seems to fit better. Residuals between -7 to 7.

Still one outlier at 95% conf.

P(x) = 0.0095x² - 0.4611x + 78.0640

Degrees of Freedom: 17 Norm of residuals: 19.4375

Third Order Polynomial

Interesting curve that does seem to fit. Residuals between -7 to 4, except for one major outlier(10).

P(x) = 0.0007x³ - 0.0698x² + 2.1745x + 53.3342

Degrees of Freedom: 16 Norm of residuals: 17.4951

Fourth Order Polynomial

Similar to 3rd Order, but left end flat. Residuals between -6 to 6;

Outlier now within 95% confidence

However, value 0 for x⁴

P(x) = 0.0000x⁴-0.0042x³ + 0.1791x² - 2.9487x + 88.5519

Degrees of Freedom: 16 Norm of residuals: 17.4951

2nd Order polynomial visually looks good. One outlier at 95% confidence, with random residuals within small range around 0.

3rd Order looks interesting, but shows one major outlier in residuals

4th Order similar to 3rd Order except for left end. Residual range smaller than 2nd order. However, the coefficient for x⁴ is 0 to the fourth place.

Full Moon

First Order Polynomial (Linear)

All data within 95% confidence

Residuals spread out at > phase

Range between-8 to 10

Degrees of Freedom: 9

Norm of residuals: 14.0320

P(x) = -2.8232x + 95.2369

Second Order Polynomial

All data within 95% confidence

Residuals spread out at > phase

Range smaller than 1st(-7 to 9)

P(x) = -0.1101x² - 1.5609x + 92.1742

Degrees of Freedom: 8 Norm of residuals: 13.8883

Third Order Polynomial

All data within 95% confidence

Residuals spread out at > phase

Range similar to 2nd (-7 to 9)

P(x) = 0.0445x³ - 0.8622x² + 2.1771x + 87.0518

Degrees of Freedom: 7 Norm of residuals: 13.7597

Fourth Order Polynomial

Interesting kinks to curve. Residuals look more random

Range slightly smaller.

P(x) = 0.0984x⁴-2.186x³ + 16.481x² - 50.848x + 137.769

Degrees of Freedom: 6 Norm of residuals: 12.5243