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Line fits to Salar de Uyuni Data Dry Season 2012 Preliminary Results PowerPoint PPT Presentation


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Line fits to Salar de Uyuni Data Dry Season 2012 Preliminary Results. Location D: Plot of Full, Waxing and Waning. Data will be split into three categories: Waxing, Waning, and Full (Moon Phase < 10°). Waning Moon. First Order Polynomial (Linear). Range -10 to 11.

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Line fits to Salar de Uyuni Data Dry Season 2012 Preliminary Results

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Line fits to salar de uyuni data dry season 2012 preliminary results

Line fits to Salar de Uyuni Data

Dry Season 2012

Preliminary Results


Line fits to salar de uyuni data dry season 2012 preliminary results

Location D: Plot of Full, Waxing and Waning

Data will be split into three categories: Waxing, Waning, and Full (Moon Phase < 10°)


Line fits to salar de uyuni data dry season 2012 preliminary results

Waning Moon


Line fits to salar de uyuni data dry season 2012 preliminary results

First Order Polynomial (Linear)

Range -10 to 11.

Residuals look random.

Degrees of Freedom: 40

Norm of residuals: 27.213

P(x) = -0.1659x + 77.4308


Line fits to salar de uyuni data dry season 2012 preliminary results

Second Order Polynomial

Similar to 1st Order

Residuals look random.

P(x) = 0.0009x² - 0.2566x + 79.1392

Degrees of Freedom: 39Norm of residuals: 27.0449


Line fits to salar de uyuni data dry season 2012 preliminary results

Third Order Polynomial

P(x) = -0.0000x³ + 0.0043x² - 0.4008x + 80.8029

Similar to 1st and 2nd as to fit.

0 value for x³

Degrees of Freedom: 38 Norm of residuals: 26.9991


Line fits to salar de uyuni data dry season 2012 preliminary results

Waning fit comments:

Not much difference between the three Orders.

2nd Order appears the best.

Rerun takes out curve at end.


Line fits to salar de uyuni data dry season 2012 preliminary results

Waxing Moon


Line fits to salar de uyuni data dry season 2012 preliminary results

First Order Polynomial (Linear)

Residuals seem to separate.

Residuals between -6 to 10

One outlier at 95% confidence

Degrees of Freedom: 18

Norm of residuals: 21.3404

P(x) = 0.2236x + 68.1435


Line fits to salar de uyuni data dry season 2012 preliminary results

Second Order Polynomial

Curve seems to fit better. Residuals between -7 to 7.

Still one outlier at 95% conf.

P(x) = 0.0095x² - 0.4611x + 78.0640

Degrees of Freedom: 17 Norm of residuals: 19.4375


Line fits to salar de uyuni data dry season 2012 preliminary results

Third Order Polynomial

Interesting curve that does seem to fit. Residuals between -7 to 4, except for one major outlier(10).

P(x) = 0.0007x³ - 0.0698x² + 2.1745x + 53.3342

Degrees of Freedom: 16 Norm of residuals: 17.4951


Line fits to salar de uyuni data dry season 2012 preliminary results

Fourth Order Polynomial

Similar to 3rd Order, but left end flat. Residuals between -6 to 6;

Outlier now within 95% confidence

However, value 0 for x⁴

P(x) = 0.0000x⁴-0.0042x³ + 0.1791x² - 2.9487x + 88.5519

Degrees of Freedom: 16 Norm of residuals: 17.4951


Line fits to salar de uyuni data dry season 2012 preliminary results

Waxing fit comments:

2nd Order polynomial visually looks good. One outlier at 95% confidence, with random residuals within small range around 0.

3rd Order looks interesting, but shows one major outlier in residuals

4th Order similar to 3rd Order except for left end. Residual range smaller than 2nd order. However, the coefficient for x⁴ is 0 to the fourth place.


Line fits to salar de uyuni data dry season 2012 preliminary results

Full Moon


Line fits to salar de uyuni data dry season 2012 preliminary results

First Order Polynomial (Linear)

All data within 95% confidence

Residuals spread out at > phase

Range between-8 to 10

Degrees of Freedom: 9

Norm of residuals: 14.0320

P(x) = -2.8232x + 95.2369


Line fits to salar de uyuni data dry season 2012 preliminary results

Second Order Polynomial

All data within 95% confidence

Residuals spread out at > phase

Range smaller than 1st(-7 to 9)

P(x) = -0.1101x² - 1.5609x + 92.1742

Degrees of Freedom: 8 Norm of residuals: 13.8883


Line fits to salar de uyuni data dry season 2012 preliminary results

Third Order Polynomial

All data within 95% confidence

Residuals spread out at > phase

Range similar to 2nd (-7 to 9)

P(x) = 0.0445x³ - 0.8622x² + 2.1771x + 87.0518

Degrees of Freedom: 7 Norm of residuals: 13.7597


Line fits to salar de uyuni data dry season 2012 preliminary results

Fourth Order Polynomial

Interesting kinks to curve. Residuals look more random

Range slightly smaller.

P(x) = 0.0984x⁴-2.186x³ + 16.481x² - 50.848x + 137.769

Degrees of Freedom: 6 Norm of residuals: 12.5243


Line fits to salar de uyuni data dry season 2012 preliminary results

Full Moon fit comments:

2nd Order polynomial visually looks good. Data all within 95% confidence, with random residuals within range between -7 to 9.

3rd Order not much improvement over 2nd.

4th Order is very ‘kinky’, though the fit is slightly better than 2nd. Not sure if this is what we want, though.


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