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Caryn Gay [email protected] American University School of International Service International Affairs Statistics and Research Methods SIS-600.005 - Dr. Assen Assenov. Socio-economic Dimensions of Trust in Romania . Research Question & Hypothesis.

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Caryn Gay

[email protected]

American University

School of International Service

International Affairs Statistics and Research Methods

SIS-600.005 - Dr. Assen Assenov

Socio-economic Dimensions of Trust in Romania

Research question hypothesis
Research Question & Hypothesis

Original Research Question

What is the relationship between educational attainment for Roma and other socio-economic factors?

Modified Research Question

What is the relationship between the Romanian people’s trust in others and their level of education, age, opinion of ethnic diversity, and their level of income?

Research Hypothesis

Controlling for level of income, age, and opinion of ethnic diversity, a respondent with a higher level of education will have a greater level of trust in others.

Literature review
Literature Review

Current Attitudes Toward the Roma in Central Europe: A Report of Research with non-Roma and Roma Respondents

World Bank Attitudinal Study (2005)

Question: What are the drivers of attitudes and perceptions among the general population in the eight countries committed to the EU’s Decade of Roma Inclusion?

Findings: Despite formation of national identity and pride in the eight countries analyzed, there was overall a high level of pessimism among both Roma and non-Roma communities.

Avoiding the Dependency Trap: Regional Report, Central and Eastern Europe

United Nations Development Program (2002)

Question: Why do most attempts to integrate Roma communities into mainstream societies fail? What are the systemic causes of the problems faced by marginalized communities and by the Roma in particular?

Findings: The countries will become successful members of the EU if the Roma (as well as other vulnerable groups) become integrated productively into their home societies, via employment, education and political participation.


Unit of study: Individuals in Romania

Source: World Values Survey, Second and Fourth Waves (1995-98 and 2005-08)

Nationally representative survey

Over 3,000individuals surveyed

Dependent variable

Trust in People

Nominal variable measured at the individual level

Independent Variables

Level of education (ordinal)

Age (IR)

Ethnic diversity (ordinal)

Level of income (ordinal)

Descriptive Statistics – Trust Over Time

We see that there was a very slight increase in the level of trust in Romania between the two survey waves.

However, the level of trust remains very low.

Descriptive statistics
Descriptive Statistics

Using survey data from the second wave only (2005-2008)

Bivariate Analysis

Using survey data from the second wave only (2005-2008)

  • ***= significant at .01

  • **= significant at .05

  • * = significant at .1

Probit regression analysis marginal effects
Probit Regression Analysis, Marginal Effects

Dependent Variable: Trust in People

0 = Can’t be too careful 1 = Most people can be trusted

Romanian individual’s level of trust decreases as their education increases.

 Their level of trust increases as their age increases.

Significance: * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, ***p<0.001

Z > 1.96

Findings policy implications
Findings & Policy Implications


The Romanian people’s level of trust is affected by their levels of education and age:

As their level of education increases, their trust in others decreases.

As their age increases, their trust increases.

Much of the data showed conflicting results (i.e., only 3 respondents self-identified as Roma while almost 50% reported living next to a Roma community member), which calls into question the reliability and representation of the sample data.

Policy Implications

The government needs to adopt policies that address the large levels of mistrust in the country, particularly in regards to the educational system.

Better care needs to be taken to ensure that the survey sample is truly representative of the population.