The 2011 Welsh Referendum and Election Studies
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The 2011 Welsh Referendum and Election Studies Richard Wyn Jones & Roger Scully Cardiff, 14 th January 2011. The Studies. The 2011 Welsh Referendum Study (ESRC Grant RES-000-22-4496) The 2011 Welsh Election Study (ESRC Grant RES-062-23-2625). Outline of Today’s Session. Purpose of Today

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The studies

The 2011 Welsh Referendum and Election StudiesRichard Wyn Jones & Roger ScullyCardiff, 14th January 2011


The studies

The Studies

  • The 2011 Welsh Referendum Study (ESRC Grant RES-000-22-4496)

  • The 2011 Welsh Election Study (ESRC Grant RES-062-23-2625)


Outline of today s session

Outline of Today’s Session

  • Purpose of Today

  • Aims of the Studies

  • Method, Research Design & Timetable

  • Content of the Surveys

  • Discussion


Purpose of today

Purpose of Today

  • Raising Profile and Impact of the Studies

  • Draw on Expertise to Improve the Studies

  • Maximise value of the Studies for the research community


Purpose of the studies wrs

Purpose of the Studies: WRS

  • Understanding Referendum Voting Behaviour: Why vote? Why vote Yes / No?

    - Impact of Party Cues

    - National Identities & Sentiments

    - Performance Politics

  • Impact of the campaign on the referendum outcome

  • Broader contributions to design/conduct of referendum studies?

  • Good value and high impact study


Purpose of the studies wes

Purpose of the Studies: WES

  • Understanding Devolved Election Voting Behaviour:

    - Electoral participation

    - Vote Choice

    - Theories of Voting: Valence & the Three-Wales Model

  • Impact of devolved election campaigns

  • Public attitudes to devolution:

    - Structure and consistency of public preferences

    - Performance assessments and relationship to fundamental attitudes

    - Effect of attitudes to devolution on devolved election voting behaviour

  • Value, impact, and continuity with previous studies


Method research design

Method & Research Design

WRS & WES deploy similar methods & designs:

- Sample of voters (fieldwork: YouGov)

- Pre and Post waves, with panel data

- Pre: sample of c.2000; drawn on ‘rolling’ basis through 30 days prior to referendum / election (ie. c.500 per week)

- Post: after referendum / election, all ‘Pre’ wave respondents approached; ‘top-up’ element to raise overall Post sample to 2000


Timetable wrs

Timetable: WRS

JanuaryConsultation event in Cardiff on survey content

End-JanFinalisation, pre- & post-referendumquestionnaires; WRS/WES Website

Feb – 2nd MarchPre-referendum wave fieldwork (30 days)

3rd MarchREFERENDUM HELD

March Post-referendum wave fieldwork

JuneCardiff Seminar on Findings

JulyLondon Seminar; Data placed on website

SeptemberDeposit of final datasets with UK Data Archive


Timetable wes

Timetable: WES

JanuaryConsultation event in Cardiff on survey content

MarchFinalisation, pre- & post-electionquestionnaires

April – 4th MayPre-election wave fieldwork (30 days)

5th May ELECTION HELD

MayPost-election wave fieldwork

SeptemberCardiff Seminar on Findings; Data placed on website & deposited with UK Data Archive

OctoberLondon Seminar


The surveys 1

The Surveys, 1

  • Drafts in place for Pre waves for WRS and (almost) WES

  • Many, but far from all, Pre questions also to be asked in Post waves. Post waves to have room for additional questions / subjects

  • Likely additional subjects for Post waves:

  • Experience of voting in the referendum / election

  • Attitudes to the process of voting

  • The AV referendum


The surveys 2 wrs pre wave draft

The Surveys, 2: WRS Pre Wave (Draft)

Sections of Survey:

  • Media consumption & interest in politics

  • Referendum Voting: likelihood to vote & vote intention

  • Campaign perceptions

  • Perceptions of referendum vote implications

  • Political issues & govt performance

  • Attitudes to parties & leaders

  • Attitudes to devolution

  • Respondents: Identities & national sentiments, NAW voting intention, past vote recall

  • Political knowledge quiz


The surveys 3 wes pre wave draft

The Surveys, 3: WES Pre Wave (Draft)

Sections of Survey:

  • Media consumption & interest in politics

  • Voting in the NAW election: likelihood to vote, vote intention, past vote recall

  • Campaign perceptions

  • Political issues & govt performance

  • Attitudes to parties & leaders

  • Attitudes to devolution

  • Respondents: Identities & national sentiments

  • Political knowledge quiz


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