Estimating ethnic mortality
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Estimating Ethnic Mortality. Pia Wohland. ESRC Research Award RES-165-25-0032, 01.10.2007- 30.09.2009 What happens when international migrants settle? Ethnic group population trends and projections for UK local areas. Mortality input data for.

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Estimating Ethnic Mortality

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Estimating ethnic mortality

Estimating

Ethnic Mortality

  • Pia Wohland

ESRC Research Award RES-165-25-0032, 01.10.2007- 30.09.2009

What happens when international migrants settle? Ethnic group population trends and projections for UK local areas


Estimating ethnic mortality

Mortality input data for

Ethnic projection model by local areas (LA) of the UK

UK:

England16 ethnic groups352 LA

Wales16ethnic groups22 LA

Scotland5 ethnic groups32 LA

Northern Ireland12 ethnic groups26 LA

Survival probability for ethnic groups in 432

local areas of the UK, by SYA age and 2 gender


We have

We have.....

  • Ethnic population estimates and projections in the UK

  • BUT

  • No ethnic specific mortality

  • Except:

  • Longitudinal Study

  • ONS ethnic group infant mortality (2008)


Estimating ethnic mortality

Is ethnic group mortality of importance?

Arias E. United States life tables, 2004.

National vital statistics reports; vol

56 no 9. Hyattsville, MD: National Center

for Health Statistics. 2007.

United States

New Zealand

Ajwani S, Blakely T, Robson B, Tobias M, Bonne M. 2003. Decades of

Disparity: Ethnic mortality trends in New Zealand 1980-1999. Wellington: Ministry

of Health and University of Otago.


Surrogate data

Surrogate data?

(Burström and Friedlund 2001, McGee et al. (1999) Heistaro et al. (2001) Helwig-Larson et al. (2003) Franks et al. (2003) , Singh and Siahpush (2001)

  • The relationship for men is different from that for women.

  • Socioeconomic factors are important in explaining mortality variation across groups but self-reported health status still has a significant influence after controlling for them.

  • There is variation between racial/ethnic groups in the self-reported health-mortality link but it is not huge.

  • There is an important influence of immigrant generation with the first generation having better self-reported health and mortality than subsequent generations.

Self-reported health

- a strong predictor of subsequent mortality.


Estimating ethnic mortality

Census 2001 Question

Available for local areas, ethnic groups and age groups


Estimating ethnic mortality

All Person Residents data

All Person Limiting long term illness data

ALL PERSONDEATHS DATA

POPULATION DATA

2001 Mid year Estimates

Countries & Local Authorities

2001 Census Tables S16,S65

Countries & Local Authorities

2001 Vital statistics

Countries & Local Authorities

2001 Census Tables S16,S65

Countries & Local Authorities

All Person Standardised Illness Ratios

(SIR)

2001 , UK Standard

Countries & Local Authorities

All Person Standardised Mortality ratios (SMR)

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

2001, UK Standard

Countries & Local Authorities

SMR = f(SIR)

Residents data by ethnicity

Standardised Mortality ratios by ethnicity

Standardised illness ratios by ethnicity

(SIR)

2001 Census Tables ST 101, 107, 207, 318

Countries & Local Authorities

2001, UK Standard

Countries & Local Authorities

2001, UK Standard

Countries & Local Authorities

Limiting long term illness by ethnicity

Life Tables & Survivorship Probabilities by ethnicity

2001 Census Tables ST 101, 107, 207, 318

Countries & Local Authorities

2001 (Calendar Year)

Countries & Local Authorities


Method 1 using illness data from the census

Method 1Using illness data from the census

Step 1 compute life tables for all UK LAs: mortality rates


Estimating ethnic mortality

Standardisation = Observed data / Excepted data

Standardised mortality ratio (SMR)

Standard population

UK

UK population mortality rates

illness rates


All group smr as a function of sir differences between home countries

All group SMR as a function of SIRDifferences between home countries?


England all group smr as a function of sir high ethnic minority versus low ethnic minority las

England all group SMR as a function of SIR:High ethnic minority versus low ethnic minority LAs


England all group smr as a function of sir north versus south

England all group SMR as a function of SIR:North versus South

http://img.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2007/10_04/england2410_468x816.jpg


Standardized illness ratios for ethnic groups in england

Standardized Illness Ratios for ethnic groups in England


Small number issue

Small number issue

= above threshold

threshold = 10 ill, 100 population

= below threshold = need model replacement


Estimating ethnic mortality

SMRs for White British Males

Results: SMRs

SMRs for Indian Males

SMRS for all groups

SMRs for Chinese males

SMRs for Bangladeshi Males


From smr to mortality rates

From SMR to mortality rates

Estimate mortality rates by age and sex for ethnic groups from estimated SMRs:

Miexg = Mixg × SMRi eg / 100

We assume each ethnic group has the same mortality pattern by age

Adjust the estimated mortality rates so that they agree with the all group mortality rates.


The ranking of mean life expectancy for ethnic groups men and women england 2001

The ranking of mean life expectancy for ethnic groups, men and women, England, 2001


Estimating ethnic mortality

Spatial distribution of life expectancies at birth 2001(1)

≥81.2 to <85.9

≥78.9 to <81.2

≥73.8 to <78.9


Spatial distribution of life expectancies at birth 2001 2

Spatial distribution of life expectancies at birth 2001(2)

≥81.2 to <85.9

≥78.9 to <81.2

≥73.8 to <78.9


Spatial distribution of life expectancies at birth 2001 3

Spatial distribution of life expectancies at birth 2001 (3)

≥77.2 to <84.6

≥74.5 to < 77.2

≥68.7 to < 74.5

Pakistani and

other South Asian


Estimating ethnic mortality

Outlook- Projection Scenarios


Comparison with an alternative method

Comparison with an alternative method

Method of choice

Alternative:

geographically weighted

England

England

Alternative:

geographically weighted

Method of choice


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