Incorporating uncertainty analysis into forecasting
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Incorporating Uncertainty Analysis into Forecasting. Group Discussion AMPO Travel Modeling Work Group Chicago, Illinois October 1, 2009. Why Bother?. A new way of thinking about forecasting Insights, not just model mechanics Range of possible outcomes

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Incorporating uncertainty analysis into forecasting l.jpg

Incorporating Uncertainty Analysis into Forecasting

Group Discussion

AMPO Travel Modeling Work Group

Chicago, Illinois

October 1, 2009


Why bother l.jpg
Why Bother?

A new way of thinking about forecasting

Insights, not just model mechanics

Range of possible outcomes

Another approach for quality control checks

Information for decision makers

Upper/lower bound, most likely

Honesty in presentation of forecasts

Predicted-versus-actual outcomes

AMPO Travel Modeling Work Group Meeting

2


Example forecast build up l.jpg
Example: Forecast Build-up

  • Series of forecasts for:

    • Today

    • Plus future transit network

    • Plus new transit behaviors

    • Plus future trip tables

    • Plus future highway congestion

    • Plus future parking costs

    • Plus alternative land use (?)

Choice riders

Park/ride etc.

Guideway effects

AMPO Travel Modeling Work Group Meeting


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Example: Honolulu Rail Study

Notes:

- Transit demand ’05a is the 2005 on-board survey.

- Bus speeds ’05+ are based on highway speeds from the assignment of 2005 person trips onto the 2030 highway network.

- Highway speeds ’30- are from the assignment of 2030 person trips onto the 2005 highway network.

AMPO Travel Modeling Work Group Meeting


Example specifications l.jpg
Example Specifications

AMPO Travel Modeling Work Group Meeting


Discussion points l.jpg
Discussion Points

Model documentation

Assessment of model plausibility

What it does/does not know well

Markets, modes, behaviors

Results of forecast tests

Consistency with similar projects

Key drivers of the forecasts

Demographic/network inputs

Alternative assumptions

AMPO Travel Modeling Work Group Meeting

6


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