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Incorporating Uncertainty Analysis into Forecasting PowerPoint PPT Presentation


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Incorporating Uncertainty Analysis into Forecasting. Group Discussion AMPO Travel Modeling Work Group Chicago, Illinois October 1, 2009. Why Bother?. A new way of thinking about forecasting Insights, not just model mechanics Range of possible outcomes

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Incorporating uncertainty analysis into forecasting l.jpg

Incorporating Uncertainty Analysis into Forecasting

Group Discussion

AMPO Travel Modeling Work Group

Chicago, Illinois

October 1, 2009


Why bother l.jpg

Why Bother?

A new way of thinking about forecasting

Insights, not just model mechanics

Range of possible outcomes

Another approach for quality control checks

Information for decision makers

Upper/lower bound, most likely

Honesty in presentation of forecasts

Predicted-versus-actual outcomes

AMPO Travel Modeling Work Group Meeting

2


Example forecast build up l.jpg

Example: Forecast Build-up

  • Series of forecasts for:

    • Today

    • Plus future transit network

    • Plus new transit behaviors

    • Plus future trip tables

    • Plus future highway congestion

    • Plus future parking costs

    • Plus alternative land use (?)

Choice riders

Park/ride etc.

Guideway effects

AMPO Travel Modeling Work Group Meeting


Example honolulu rail study l.jpg

Example: Honolulu Rail Study

Notes:

- Transit demand ’05a is the 2005 on-board survey.

- Bus speeds ’05+ are based on highway speeds from the assignment of 2005 person trips onto the 2030 highway network.

- Highway speeds ’30- are from the assignment of 2030 person trips onto the 2005 highway network.

AMPO Travel Modeling Work Group Meeting


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Example Specifications

AMPO Travel Modeling Work Group Meeting


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Discussion Points

Model documentation

Assessment of model plausibility

What it does/does not know well

Markets, modes, behaviors

Results of forecast tests

Consistency with similar projects

Key drivers of the forecasts

Demographic/network inputs

Alternative assumptions

AMPO Travel Modeling Work Group Meeting

6


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