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Competitiveness in Latin America and the Caribbean: The Role of Regional Integration. REDIBERO Annual Meeting Cancun, October 2009 Antoni Estevadeordal Manager Integration and Trade Sector. Outline. Part I: Towards a single market: Regionalism in LAC

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Competitiveness in latin america and the caribbean the role of regional integration l.jpg
Competitiveness in Latin America and the Caribbean: The Role of Regional Integration

REDIBERO Annual Meeting

Cancun, October 2009

Antoni Estevadeordal

Manager

Integration and Trade Sector


Outline l.jpg
Outline

  • Part I: Towards a single market: Regionalism in LAC

  • Part II: A Changing Environment for LAC Trade Integration Strategies

  • Conclusions


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Part I

Towards a Single Market: Regionalism in LAC


Global regionalism l.jpg
Global Regionalism...

(RIAs notified to the WTO, 1950-2006)

~ 1994


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LAC Integration 15 years ago…1994…

UR-GATT

(April 94)

Canada

USA

NAFTA

(January 94)

Dominican

Republic

Bahamas

Haiti

Mexico

(CARICOM members but not in CSME)

Antigua & Barbuda, Barbados,

Belize, Dominica, Grenada,

Guyana, Jamaica, St. Lucia,

St. Kitts & Nevis,

St. Vincent & the Grenadines,

Suriname,

Trinidad &

Tobago

El Salvador

Guatemala

Honduras

Nicaragua

Costa Rica

CARICOM

CSME

CACM

G-3

Panama

G-3

Venezuela

G-3

Colombia

ACN

Ecuador

FTAA

(December 94)

Brazil

Peru

Bolivia

Paraguay

Chile

Uruguay

ACE 35

Argentina

MERCOSUR

(December 94)

Source: Integration and Trade Sector, IDB


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LAC Integration menu: “pizza”

Canada

USA

Dominican

Republic

Bahamas

Haiti

Mexico

Antigua & Barbuda, Barbados,

Belize, Dominica, Grenada,

Guyana, Jamaica, St. Lucia,

St. Kitts & Nevis,

St. Vincent & the Grenadines,

Suriname,

Trinidad &

Tobago

El Salvador

Guatemala

Honduras

Nicaragua

Costa Rica

Panama

Venezuela

Colombia

FTAA

Ecuador

Brazil

Peru

Bolivia

Paraguay

Chile

Uruguay

Argentina

Source: Integration and Trade Sector, IDB


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LAC Integration menu: “ravioli”

NAFTA

Canada

USA

Dominican

Republic

Bahamas

Haiti

Mexico

?

?

?

Antigua & Barbuda, Barbados,

Belize, Dominica, Grenada,

Guyana, Jamaica, St. Lucia,

St. Kitts & Nevis,

St. Vincent & the Grenadines,

Suriname,

Trinidad &

Tobago

El Salvador

Guatemala

Honduras

Nicaragua

Costa Rica

CARICOM

CSME

?

CACM

Panama

Venezuela

Colombia

ACN

Ecuador

Brazil

?

Peru

Bolivia

?

Paraguay

Chile

Uruguay

?

Argentina

MERCOSUR

Source: Integration and Trade Sector, IDB


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LAC Integration menu: “spaghetti bowl”

EFTA

EU, EFTA

NAFTA

EU

Canada

Canada-CRI

EU-CARIFOUM

EPA

USA

Japan

CAFTA-DR

Dominican

Republic

Bahamas

Haiti

Mexico

(CARICOM members but not in CSME)

Korea

China

Antigua & Barbuda, Barbados,

Belize, Dominica, Grenada,

Guyana, Jamaica, St. Lucia,

St. Kitts & Nevis,

St. Vincent & the Grenadines,

Suriname,

Trinidad &

Tobago

El Salvador

Guatemala

Honduras

Nicaragua

Costa Rica

CARICOM

CSME

CACM

G-3

Panama

Chile-

Cent. Amer.

Venezuela

Colombia

ACE 59

ACN

Ecuador

ACE 59

Thailand

ACE 59

Brazil

Peru

Bolivia

ACE 36

Trans-Pacific

SEP

Paraguay

Singapore

ACE 58

Chile

Uruguay

ACE 35

Argentina

Brunei

N.Z.

Australia

MERCOSUR

Source: Integration and Trade Sector, IDB


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LAC Integration into the future…

EFTA

EU, EFTA

NAFTA

EU

Canada

EU-CARIFOUM

EPA

USA

Japan

CAFTA-DR

Dominican

Republic

Bahamas

Mexico

Korea

(CARICOM member but not in CSME)

China

Antigua & Barbuda, Barbados,

Belize, Dominica, Grenada,

Guyana, Jamaica, St. Lucia,

St. Kitts & Nevis,

St. Vincent & the Grenadines,

Suriname,

Trinidad &

Tobago

El Salvador

Guatemala

Honduras

Haiti

Nicaragua

Costa Rica

CARICOM

CSME

CACM

G-3

Panama

Chile-

Cent. Amer.

Venezuela

Colombia

ACN

Ecuador

ACE 59

Thailand

Brazil

Bolivia

Peru

ACE 36

Trans-Pacific

SEP

Paraguay

Singapore

ACE 58

Chile

Uruguay

ACE 35

Argentina

Brunei

N.Z.

MERCOSUR

Australia

Source: Integration and Trade Sector, IDB


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The good and bad news

on how we did it…


Preferential liberalization as a building block l.jpg
Preferential Liberalization as a “building block”…

Source: Integration and Trade Sector, IDB


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Preferential Liberalization as a “building block”…

Source: Integration and Trade Sector, IDB


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Preferential Liberalization progress…

2008

2015

100

Share of intra-

regional trade

Liberalized

~ 85 %

90

80

70

RTAs Period

90 - 95

60

50

95 - 00

40

00 - 08

30

20

10

0

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2025

2005

2021

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2022

2023

2024

Source: Integration and Trade Sector, IDB


The complex world of rules of origin number of roo criteria combinations rtas apec l.jpg
The complex world of Rules of Origin…Number of RoO Criteria Combinations (RTAs-APEC)

Complex, Older, Latin…

Simple, Younger, Asian..


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LAC Integration “today’s special”: lasagna

Canada

USA

EU-CARIFOUM

EPA

Dominican

Republic

Japan

Bahamas

(CARICOM member but not in CSME)

Mexico

Korea

Antigua & Barbuda, Barbados,

Belize, Dominica, Grenada,

Guyana, Jamaica, St. Lucia,

St. Kitts & Nevis,

St. Vincent & the Grenadines,

Suriname,

Trinidad &

Tobago

El Salvador

Guatemala

Honduras

?

Haiti

China

Nicaragua

CARICOM

CSME

Costa Rica

Panama

?

?

ARCO

Venezuela

Colombia

?

Brazil

Peru

Bolivia

Thailand

Paraguay

Ecuador

Uruguay

Chile

Singapore

Argentina

Australia

Brunei

N.Z.

Source: Integration and Trade Sector, IDB


Slide16 l.jpg

The good and bad news

on what happened…








National integration deficit l.jpg
“National Integration” DEFICIT

México: Regional Contributions to export growth

By state (1993-2003)

Fuente: Sector de Integración y Comercio, BID


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Part II

A Changing Environment

for LAC Integration Strategies


A changing environment for lac integration strategies l.jpg
A changing environment for LAC integration strategies…

Increasing importance of private sector logic

over state-led integration…

Increasing importance of external forces on

external integration strategies…

Increasing importance of non-traditional trade

costs (transportation, logistics, information)…

Increasing importance of recalibrating the

world trading system…


A changing environment for lac integration strategies26 l.jpg
A changing environment for LAC integration strategies…

Increasing importance of private sector logic

over state-led integration…


Slide27 l.jpg

Private Dynamics: National & Regional Production Networks

Contract Manufacturers in the Electronics Sector (firms sample)

1990 s

Source: Sturgeon (2005)


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Private Dynamics: Global Production Networks

Contract Manufacturers in the Electronics Sector (firms sample)

2000s

Source: Sturgeon (2005)


A changing environment for lac integration strategies29 l.jpg
A changing environment for LAC integration strategies…

Increasing importance of private sector logic

over state-led integration…

Increasing importance of external forces on

integration strategies…



China india lac31 l.jpg
China, India, LAC…

Shares in World Exports of Goods (%, Current US$)

Source: Integration and Trade Sector, IDB


Apec region liberalization 2008 of product items free by 2008 by bilateral rta relation l.jpg
APEC region liberalization 2008% of product items free by 2008, by bilateral RTA relation

NAFTA

JPN-MYS

KOR-PHL


Advances toward 2013 of product items free by 2008 and 2013 l.jpg
…advances toward 2013% of product items free by 2008 and 2013


And further by 2020 of product items free by 2008 2013 2020 l.jpg
…and further by 2020% of product items free by 2008, 2013, 2020


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Asia-led integration …

North

America

Mexico

Europe

Intra-regional

Regional

Asia

ARCO-Pacific

Chile

Source: Integration and Trade Sector, IDB


Slide36 l.jpg

Transpacific corridors: Changing patterns …

Source: Integration and Trade Sector, IDB


A changing environment for lac integration strategies37 l.jpg
A changing environment for LAC integration strategies…

Increasing importance of private sector logic

over state-led integration…

Increasing importance of external forces on

external integration strategies…

Increasing importance of non-trade issues…


Slide38 l.jpg

Beyond Tariffs: Trade costsin LAC…

Source: Integration and Trade Sector, IDB




Information costs the role of export promotion agencies l.jpg

Colombia: agencies...Export growth and Institutional Support (2003-2006)

Average growth of the number of markets

Average growth of the number of products

Information costs …the role of export promotion agencies...


A changing environment for lac integration strategies42 l.jpg
A changing environment for LAC integration strategies… agencies...

Increasing importance of private sector logic

over state-led integration…

Increasing importance of external forces on

external integration strategies…

Increasing importance of non-traditional trade

costs (transportation, logistics, information)…

Increasing importance of recalibrating the

world trading system…


Recalibrating the world trading system l.jpg
Recalibrating the world agencies...trading system…

Regional

Blocs

WTO

Bilateral

FTAs

Source: Integration and Trade Sector, IDB


Slide44 l.jpg

Conclusions agencies...


Regional integration and regional competitiveness conclusions l.jpg
Regional Integration and Regional Competitiveness…Conclusions…

  • Emerging New Global Dynamics (Asia…) and new Private Sector Logic (FDI, Services, Outsourcing, Global Supply Chains, Multilatinas…)  ADJUST Regional Integration Frameworks…

  • Emerging New Inter-Regional Cooperation Priorities (Energy, Migration, Financial Cooperation, Regional Infrastructure…)  EXPAND Regional Integration Agenda…

  • Emerging New Regional Dynamics (RTAs..)  CALIBRATE World Trade Architecture…


Competitiveness in latin america and the caribbean the role of regional integration46 l.jpg
Competitiveness in Competitiveness…Conclusions…Latin America and the Caribbean: The Role of Regional Integration

REDIBERO Annual Meeting

Cancun, October 2009

Antoni Estevadeordal

Manager

Integration and Trade Sector


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