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Search for Predictors of Exceptional Human Longevity: Using Computerized Genealogies and Internet Resources for Human Longevity Studies. Natalia S. Gavrilova, Ph.D. Leonid A. Gavrilov, Ph.D. Center on Aging NORC and University of Chicago Chicago, Illinois, USA.
Natalia S. Gavrilova, Ph.D.
Leonid A. Gavrilov, Ph.D.
Center on Aging
NORC and University of Chicago
Chicago, Illinois, USA
Yet, factors predicting exceptional longevity and its time trends remain to be fully understood
In this study we explored the new opportunities provided by the ongoing revolution in information technology, computer science and Internet expansion
Jeanne Calment (1875-1997)
Over 75 millions of computerized genealogical records are available online now!
Computerized genealogies is a promising source of information about potential predictors of exceptional longevity: life-course events, early-life conditions and family history of longevity
For longevity studies the genealogies with detailed birth dates and death dates for long-lived individuals (centenarians) and their relatives are of particular interest
In this study 1,001 genealogy records for centenarians born in 1875-1899 were collected and used for further age validation
Social Security Administration Death Master File is publicly available at the Rootsweb website: http://ssdi.rootsweb.com/cgi-bin/ssdi.cgi
Head of household indexes and census page images for 1900, 1920 and 1910 federal censuses are provided by Genealogy.com
Indexes of all persons enumerated by 1930 federal census and census page images are provided by Ancestry.com
Cases - centenarians born between 1890 and 1899
Controls – their siblings born in the same time window
where x – birth order; z – family size; a, b, c, d – parameters of polynomial regression model
Cases - households where centenarians were raised (from centenarian records linked to 1900 census)
Controls – 1% random sample of households with children below age 10enumerated by 1900 census (from Integrated Public Use Microdata Sample, IPUMS: http://www.ipums.umn.edu/usa/index.html)
A – New England and Middle Atlantic (reference group)
B – Mountain West and Pacific West
C – Southeast and Southwest
D – North Central
A – Rented House (reference group)
B – Owned House
C – Rented Farm
D – Owned farm
A – Father immigrated (reference group)
B – Father native-born
A – Father <50 years (reference group)
B – Father 50+ years
A – Less than 70% of siblings survived (reference group)
B – More than 70% of siblings survived (reference group)
Males - father’s immigrant status decreases chances to become a centenarian
Females – father older than 50 years in household and poor survival of siblings (less than 70%) decreases chances to become a centenarian
(1) Study of cohort mortality at advanced ages: Estimation of hazard rates for each month of age for extinct birth cohorts.
(2) Month of birth and mortality after age 80: Estimation of life expectancy in real birth cohort according to month of birth.
This study was made possible thanks to:
generous support from the
Society of Actuaries
stimulating working environment at the Center on Aging, NORC/University of Chicago