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North American Trade Disputes: A Mexican Perspective. North American Trade Disputes: A Mexican Perspective. Sources of trade irritants Underlying cause of trade disputes What’s wrong with a little dispute Conclusions. Sources of Trade Disputes. Trans-border power Political sensitivity

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North american trade disputes a mexican perspective l.jpg
North American Trade Disputes:A Mexican Perspective


North american trade disputes a mexican perspective2 l.jpg
North American Trade Disputes:A Mexican Perspective

  • Sources of trade irritants

  • Underlying cause of trade disputes

  • What’s wrong with a little dispute

  • Conclusions


Sources of trade disputes l.jpg
Sources of Trade Disputes

  • Trans-border power

  • Political sensitivity

    • growing democracy

  • Differential policy mechanisms

  • Relative price differentials

  • Rapid structural change -- technology innovation

  • Foreign investment -- lack thereof


Trans border power ratio l.jpg

Size of markete * Concentration ratioe

*imports /

domestic production

*import share

= TBPR

Size of marketi * Concentration ratioi

Trans border power ratio

  • Size of market

  • Concentration ratio

  • Import market share


Trans border power ratio and trade conflicts l.jpg
Trans border power ratio and trade conflicts

Beef

Probability of trade disputes

Poultry

Trans border power ratio


Trans border power ratio and political sensibility probability of disputes as trade grows l.jpg
Trans border power ratio and political sensibility:Probability of disputes as trade grows

Trans border power ratio

Medium probability

High

Trade disputes

Trucking

HFCS

Hogs

High probability

Nobody cares

Avocados

Low

Low

High

Political sensibility


Differential policy mechanisms l.jpg
Differential policy mechanisms

  • Policy vision

  • Support mechanisms

  • Subsidies



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SAGAR not involved or not overly active

US$ 16 200 million

US$1 474.3 th.

2).

-

Support to farmers

Procampo :$1 090.7 mill

and for export marketing

Mkt. Supt .$ 366.9 mill

Aserca Adm:$0.2414 mill

A.CampoExp$ 16.5 mill

US$ 778.8 th.

US$ 2 200 million

Alianza Ag: $ 321.8

4).

-

Rural Develop

Alianza Liv: $ 155.9

Alianza RD: $301.1

US$ 67.2 th.

US$ 750 million

6).

-

Ag health (sanitary)

Alianza Ag. health:$ 67.2 mill

Including storage

US$150 million

$0.00

Food safety

7).

-

Comparative budgetary expenditures

USDA

Source: Consjeo Nacional Agropecuario

11


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USDA not involved or not overly active

Other Gov. agencies

US$ 5 503.2 th

(not operated by SAGAR)

US$ 36 100 million

Anti proverty program

Social and food programs, including nutrition

1).

-

Capital Hum.:$ 2 695.1 mil (Progresa)

Opciones Ingr:$ 906.3 mil (Pet,Fonaes)

Capital físico:$ 1 901.8 mil (State local gov)

US$ 4 700 million

US$ 82.4 th

3).

-

Natural resources

Water commission: $ 82.4 mil

US$ 2 100 million

US$ 205.4 th

Education and research including economic research

5).

-

Inifap:

$ 67.3 mil

UACh:

$ 69.8 mil

UAAANarro$ 32.0 mil

Col.Postgr: $ 30.0 mil

CEASAGAR:$ 6.3 mil

TOTAL MÉXICO: $ 8 509.6 million

TOTAL US: $ 62 200 million

12

Apoyos en otros países

Comparative budgetary expenditures

Source: Consjeo Nacional Agropecuario


Agricultural development budget billion of 1994 pesos l.jpg
Agricultural development budget not involved or not overly active(Billion of 1994 pesos)

Source: Various presidential informes; Banco de Mexico. !980 - 1994 refers to rural development


Agricultural development budget as a percentage of the total programmed budget l.jpg
Agricultural development budget as a percentage of the total programmed budget

Source: Various presidential informes; Banco de Mexico. !980 - 1994 refers to rural development


Subsidy levels in nafta countries l.jpg
Subsidy Levels in NAFTA Countries programmed budget

U.S. Dollars per hectare

U.S. Dollars per full-time farmer

Source: Consjeo Nacional Agropecuario


Government export support l.jpg
Government export support programmed budget


You talk the talk but you don t walk the walk l.jpg

You talk the talk, but programmed budgetyou don’t walk the walk

The Mexican view on their NAFTA partners agricultural policies


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Apoyos en otros países programmed budget

Canada

Comparative subsidy levels among NAFTA partners

(PSE’s)

Mexico

United States

15


Relative price differentials l.jpg
Relative price differentials programmed budget

  • Undermines local markets

  • Opportunities for dumping

  • Strengthens exporter balance sheet


Mexican beef market l.jpg

Imports programmed budget

Domestic

30%

83%

70%

Popular

Cuts

High end

cuts

Mid-range

Cuts

Mex

1.60

1.20

Wholesale

price

us$ / Lb

3.00

4.00

USA

1.50

1.00

Source: AMEG

Mexican Beef Market


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Price structure: Hogs and Pork in the U.S. and Mexico programmed budget

Source: Enrique Dominguez, WSJ, ASERCA, CMP elaboration


Structural and technological change l.jpg
Structural and technological change programmed budget

  • Tomatoes - extended shelf life

  • U.S. beef market

  • Change in Mexican trade profile


U s beef market l.jpg
U.S. beef market programmed budget

Fuente: NCBA


U s beef trade balance million dollars l.jpg
U.S. Beef Trade Balance programmed budget(million dollars)

*

* Beef and variety meats

Fuente: NCBA


Food and agriculture imports million dollars l.jpg
Food and agriculture imports programmed budget(Million dollars)


Food and agriculture imports l.jpg
Food and agriculture imports programmed budget


Food and agriculture exports million dollars l.jpg
Food and agriculture exports programmed budget(Million dollars)


Food and agriculture exports l.jpg
Food and agriculture exports programmed budget


Foreign investment l.jpg
Foreign Investment programmed budget

  • Stimulates trade

  • Creates interdependency

  • But can create competitive pressure


Foreign investment in mexican food and agriculture number of firms l.jpg
Foreign Investment in Mexican food and agriculture programmed budget(number of firms)

Food Manufacturing

Source: Secretaría de Economía


Foreign investment in mexican food and agriculture by country of origin l.jpg
Foreign Investment in Mexican Food and Agriculture by Country of Origin

Agriculture

Food


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So what’s wrong with trade disputes? Country of Origin

  • When there is no trade there are no disputes

  • Keeps lawyers and economists busy

  • Absence of disputes could indicate collusion

    • Are consumers better off?

    • Are farmers better off?

  • Tomato case

    • U.S. and Mexican growers agreed to essentially a price floor in 1996, ending a trade dispute


U s imports of mexican tomatoes 000 tons l.jpg
U.S. imports of Mexican tomatoes Country of Origin(‘000 tons)

Source: Bancomext, based on U.S. Department of Commerce data


Prices per kilo of imported tomatoes in the u s market l.jpg
Prices per kilo of imported tomatoes in the U.S. market Country of Origin

Source: Bancomext, based on U.S. Department of Commerce data


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Mexico’s share of the U.S. winter tomato market Country of Origin(% volume)

Source: Bancomext, based on U.S. Department of Commerce data


Conclusions l.jpg
Conclusions Country of Origin

  • An ad hoc-type dispute resolution mechanism is needed


Slide35 l.jpg

Legal time frame for an trade case Country of OriginLive hogs

Heads

PROVISIONAL RESOLUTION Feb 99

DEFINITIVE RESOLUTIONOct 99

INVESTIGATION REQUESTJun 98

480 DAYS

INVESTIGATIONOct’97-Mar’98

Source: USDA, Enrique Dominguez


Conclusions36 l.jpg
Conclusions Country of Origin

  • An ad hoc-type dispute resolution mechanism is needed

  • Need to incorporate more Mexican academics

  • Need to bring together private sector actors

    Nevertheless

  • Probability for more trade conflicts in the near future


Mexico s aggressive trade stance l.jpg

1994 NAFTA Country of Origin

2000 EUFTA

1992 Chile

1995 Bolivia, Costa Rica, Colombia y Venezuela

1998 Nicaragua

Mexico’s aggressive trade stance


Conclusions38 l.jpg
Conclusions Country of Origin

  • An ad hoc-type dispute resolution mechanism is needed

  • Need to incorporate more Mexican academics

  • Need to bring together private sector actors

    Nevertheless

  • Probability for more trade conflicts in the near future

    • Mexico’s aggressive trade stance

    • Adjustment of domestic agricultural policy


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