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MEPAG FEBRUARY 2008 . Alan Stern Associate Administrator/SMD. SMD’s Science Program Leads The World. $4.441B/yr budget. Large Earth science, heliophysics, planetary science, & astrophysics programs. 53 flight missions in operation. 41 flight missions in development.

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MEPAGFEBRUARY 2008

Alan Stern

Associate Administrator/SMD


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SMD’s Science Program Leads The World

  • $4.441B/yr budget.

  • Large Earth science, heliophysics, planetary science, & astrophysics programs.

  • 53 flight missions in operation.

  • 41 flight missions in development.

  • 3000+ operating R&A grants.

  • These numbers exceed the combined efforts of all other Earth & space science programs of the World.



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But SMD’s Science Over-Runs Are Debilitating

COST OVERRUNS AND UNEXPECTED MISSION EXPENDITURES


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PRESENTATION OVERVIEW

  • FY09 SMD Budget Overview

  • Recent MEP History

  • Mars Next Decade

  • MSL Issues

  • Thought Questions



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We will get more science done within our budget.

We will help ensure that U.S. Space Exploration Policy succeeds.

We will promote U.S. leadership across all of SMD’s science disciplines.

We will improve SMD’s actual and its perceived impact on, and relevance to,

the public.

We will create a better workplace.

SMD MANAGEMENT OBJECTIVES


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SMD’S CROSS-CUTTING FY09 BUDGET OBJECTIVES

  • Accelerate the Earth Science Decadal Survey mission queue.

  • Increase space science R&A/MO&DA to get better value from our flight missions.

  • Increase the number of planned missions in all four of SMD’s science theme areas.

  • Support NRC Decadal Survey priorities.

  • Initiate an SMD lunar robotic science program.

  • Increase space science suborbital research programs to foster PI on-ramps, technology demonstration, and accomplish more science.




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MAJOR FY09 BUDGET INITIATIVES

  • Increased commitment to Earth Science over 5 years.

  • Initiated seven new FY09 mission starts: more than in the past four budgets combined; at least one per SMD science area:

    • Earth Science: SMAP and IceSat II (2012, 2015 launches)

    • Astrophysics: JDEM (launch in 2014/2015)

    • Heliophysics: Solar Probe Plus (launch in 2015)

    • Planetary: Outer Planets Flagship (launch by 2017) small lunar science orbiter (launch by 2011), and lunar mini-landers (launch by 2014).

  • Substantial increases in astrophysics, heliophysics, and planetary science R&A/MO&DA.

  • Increased budgets for suborbital rockets and balloons.

Baseline Plan


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SMD PLANETARY DIVISION’S CENTRAL ORGANIZING THEME THAT STRETCHES ACROSS THE SOLAR SYSTEM


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SELECTED FY09 BUDGET HIGHLIGHTS: PLANETARY

  • Fund a new start for the outer planets flagship mission (LRD 2016/2017); fund Cassini through 2011.

  • Initiate a new lunar robotic science flight mission line, with first launch (LADEE small orbiter) by 2011, second launch (two ILN landers) by 2014.

  • Continue all existing Mars missions; launches in 2009, 2013, 2016; also fund US ExoMars participation for 2013 launch; initiate sample return studies leading to 2018 and 2020 MSR missions; augment Mars DA and R&A (58% FY08, 7% FY09, 11% by FY10).

  • Fully fund Juno (2011 launch) and New Frontiers 3 (2016 launch), as well as GRAIL (launch by 2011) and the next Discovery launch in 2014.

  • Augment general planetary R&A 29% in FY09.

Baseline Plan




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NEWLY STARTED MISSIONS

New Starts Defined as a Phase A Start Year or Final Downselect Year—

Whichever is Later.


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FY09 MARS PROGRAM PLAN





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MARS BUDGET HISTORY


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MARS PROGRAM CONTENT

  • Existing Flight Missions (5)

    • Mars Odyssey

    • Mars Recon Orbiter

    • MER-Spirit

    • MER-Opportunity

    • Phoenix

  • Missions in Development (3)

    • MSL Flagship ($1830M)

    • Mars Scout 2 ($475M)

    • ExoMarsx2 ($61M)

  • Additional Missions Funded in FY09 Budget (2)

    • Mars 2016 Ramp Up ($220M)

    • Mars Sample Return ($68M: studies & tech)


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COMPARE TO ALL OTHER PLANETARY CONTENT

  • Existing Flight Missions (4)

    • Cassini

    • New Horizons

    • MESSENGER

    • Dawn

  • Missions in Development (2)

    • Outer Planets Flagship

    • LADEE Lunar Micro-Orbiter

  • Additional Missions Funded in FY09 Budget (3)

    • Discovery 2014

    • Lunar micro-landers 2014

    • New Frontiers 2016


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PLANETARY BUDGET RUNNOUT TO 2020

2.4%/yr SMD Growth Line



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MEP ’07-08

BUDGET EVENTS

  • Jan: PHX $25M Build Cost Increase.

  • June: MSL Sample Caching, $2M Added.

  • May: MEP Next Decade MSR Re-Focus.

  • Aug: Phoenix launch.

  • Sep: Phoenix $5M Mission Ops Increase.

  • Sep: MSL $62M Re-baseline.

  • Sep: Funded New MER Extensions

    Thru FY08 ($10M) With Commitment for

    FY09 ($10M) If Still Operating.

  • Feb: FY09 Budget Request Released.

    R&A Increased. No Mars Cancellations.




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Launch Year

2020

MSR Element #1

MSR Element #2

TBD mission

based on

budget and science feed-forward

Sample Receiving Facility online by 2022

Mars Program - Next Decade



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MSL COST GROWTH HISTORY

  • August 2006: MSL Confirmed at a development (C/D) cost of $972M.

    • Program added $32M to increase reserves to 35% (~60% on the S-Curve).

  • Late ’06/early ’07: ~$20M in descopes were taken to control cost growth:

    • TLS, Corer, Sample Crusher, CheMin dual X-ray source, EDL latitude performance.

  • June ’07: MSL descopes and cash of $62M. Sources of growth included:

    • Instruments; SAM, CheMin, ChemCam, Malin Space Science Systems cameras.

    • Mechanical Design of Rover body, Corer/drill, Sample Acquisition/Sample Processing and Handling

    • Actuator Design

    • Thermal Protection System testing

    • Parts Procurements

    • Fabrication Services/Labor

  • Jan ’08:MSL estimated need for $165M-$200M cash. Sources of growth include:

    • Actuators, Thermal Protection System testing

    • Parts, Subsystems, Testing

    • Fabrication Services/Labor


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MSL GROWTH BY SUBSYSTEM

Largest contributors to growth

NOTE: See also Aerospace Corp EVM Charts in b/u at WBS levels 3/4


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MSL Development Flow Compression

Radar

Flt. Heatshield

As of June 2007

CDR

Descent Stage

Flt. Avionics

Drill

ATLO

KSC

Deliveries

Drill

Descent Stage

Flt. Heatshield

Flt. Avionics

Radar

Possible delays but

flexibility available

As of Jan. 2008

EAC increased > $200M

Since June 2007

ATLO

ATLO

w/EMs

KSC

Deliveries

Ship

May 2009

Launch

Sept. 2009

CDR

June 2007

March 2008

July 2008

Jan. 2009



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MSL PROJECT BUDGET

GROWTH HISTORY

Current JPL

Projected

12/07/07

Blue line $1699M

corresponds to

the 70% on

SRB’s S-curve

development

cost predicted at

confirmation



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  • What does a balanced planetary program look

    like?

  • What should we fly for MEP 2016?

  • What Mars efforts could be proposed to Discovery

    and New Frontiers?

  • What Mars-Moon flight program synergies exist?

  • Is MSR the right central organizing theme?

  • Is there a serious science loss if MSL arrival

  • slips?



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LUNAR ROBOTIC SCIENCE MISSION INITIATIVE

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

Lunar Research and Analysis

Mission of Opportunity

Science-Funding-Opportunity Driven

LADEE Launch Goal

Mini Lander Launch Goal

ILN Operation Start Goal

Possible Intl. Partner

Early Operations

ESMD

SMD

C/D

E

E+

LRO

SMD-Discovery Mission

E

Cruise

B

C & D

GRAIL

Science Definition

SDT

E

Cruise

A

B

C & D

SMD-Full Moon Missions

LADEE

Science Definition

SDT

B/C/D duration finalized during A

E

Node I & II Operations

A

B

TBD during Phase A

Mini Lander

Launch date to be set during Phase A

020308



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FY2007

FY2008

FY2009

FY2010

FY2011

FY2012

FY2013

Mars Exploration

634.9

553.5

386.5

299.6

344.5

341.1

413.8

--

416.8

305.5

223.3

69.0

54.6

37.6

2009 Mars Science Lab

5.3

57.7

6.7

68.5

152.5

170.7

121.8

Mars Scout (2013)

14.2

27.4

24.9

25.9

26.7

27.1

27.5

Mars Research and Analysis

Operating Missions and Data Analysis

171.8

149.4

131.6

136.2

110.7

105.7

264.5

{

-- -- --

10.0

20.2

31.0

160.2

Mars-16

-- --

--

--

--

Mars Sample Return

5.0

35.0

3.0

6.0

5.0

13.0

23.0

18.0

6.0

ExoMars

13.7

9.2

Mars Technology Program

10.0

10.0

10.0

10.0

10.0


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