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Economic and Tax Revenue Outlook. Mark Zandi Economy.com, Inc. Jobs, Millions Source: BLS. Prolonged Suffering. Previous Cycles. Sources: BLS, Economy.com. Early ‘90s Cycle. Current Cycle. States In Recession. Recession. Flat. Expanding. State and Local Government Deficit

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Economic and tax revenue outlook l.jpg

Economic and Tax Revenue Outlook

Mark Zandi

Economy.com, Inc.


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Jobs, Millions

Source: BLS


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Prolonged Suffering

Previous

Cycles

Sources: BLS, Economy.com

Early ‘90s

Cycle

Current

Cycle


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States In Recession

Recession

Flat

Expanding


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State and Local Government Deficit

Source: BEA

Share of GDP (R)

Billions $ (L)


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Businesses Confidence Rebounds

Business Confidence Survey

January 2003 = 100

4 week Moving Average

Source: Economy.com


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State Government Tax Revenues

Billions $, 4- Quarter Moving Sum

Source: Census


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Tax Payments

Billions $ (L)

Effective

Tax Rate (R)

Source: BEA


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Real GDP Growth

% Change Year Ago

Sources: BEA, Economy.com

Actual

Without

Housing


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Nonfinancial Productivity Growth

% Change Year Ago, 4-Quarter Moving Average

Source: BLS


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Real Wage Growth

% Change Year Ago,

4-Quarter Moving Average

Sources: BLS, BEA


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Profit Margins of Nonfinancial Businesses

4-Quarter Moving Average

Source: BEA


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Near-Term OutlookReal GDP Year over Year Growth

Potential

Growth


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Road to RecoveryStable Economies

Philadelphia

Baltimore

Las Vegas

Washington, D.C.

Raleigh

Riverside

Orange County

Albuquerque

San Diego

West Palm Beach

Tampa

San Antonio

Ft. Lauderdale

Miami


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Road to Recovery2003 H2Computer Hardware, Distribution

Philadelphia

Central NJ

Oakland

Sacramento

Baltimore

Las Vegas

Washington, D.C.

Norfolk

Raleigh

Los Angeles

Riverside

Memphis

Orange County

Albuquerque

Atlanta

San Diego

Phoenix

Jacksonville

Austin

Orlando

West Palm Beach

Tampa

San Antonio

Ft. Lauderdale

Miami


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Road to Recovery2004 H1Software, Travel

Portland

Minneapolis

Salt Lake City

Philadelphia

Chicago

Central NJ

Oakland

Sacramento

Baltimore

Indianapolis

Las Vegas

San Jose

Washington, D.C.

Norfolk

Raleigh

Los Angeles

Riverside

Memphis

Charlotte

Orange County

Albuquerque

Atlanta

San Diego

Phoenix

Jacksonville

Austin

Orlando

New Orleans

West Palm Beach

Tampa

Houston

San Antonio

Ft. Lauderdale

Miami


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Road to Recovery2004 H2Telecom, Money Management

Portland

Minneapolis

Boston

Pittsburgh

Salt Lake City

Philadelphia

Chicago

Central NJ

Oakland

Sacramento

Baltimore

San Francisco

Indianapolis

Las Vegas

Denver

San Jose

Washington, D.C.

Norfolk

Kansas CIty

Raleigh

Los Angeles

Riverside

Memphis

Charlotte

Orange County

Albuquerque

Atlanta

San Diego

Phoenix

Dallas

Jacksonville

Austin

Orlando

New Orleans

West Palm Beach

Tampa

Houston

San Antonio

Ft. Lauderdale

Miami


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Road to Recovery2005 H1Traditional Manufacturing

Portland

Minneapolis

Boston

Milwaukee

Detroit

Pittsburgh

Salt Lake City

Philadelphia

Chicago

Central NJ

Oakland

Sacramento

Baltimore

San Francisco

Indianapolis

OH MSAs

Las Vegas

Denver

San Jose

Washington, D.C.

Norfolk

Kansas CIty

Raleigh

Los Angeles

Riverside

Memphis

Charlotte

Orange County

Albuquerque

Atlanta

San Diego

Phoenix

Dallas

Jacksonville

Austin

Orlando

New Orleans

West Palm Beach

Tampa

Houston

San Antonio

Ft. Lauderdale

Miami


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Road to Recovery2006 H1Investment Banking, Commercial Aircraft

Seattle

Portland

Minneapolis

Boston

Milwaukee

Detroit

Pittsburgh

Salt Lake City

Broad NYC Region

Philadelphia

Chicago

Central NJ

Oakland

Sacramento

Baltimore

San Francisco

Indianapolis

OH MSAs

Las Vegas

Denver

San Jose

Washington, D.C.

Norfolk

Kansas CIty

Raleigh

Los Angeles

Riverside

Memphis

Charlotte

Orange County

Albuquerque

Atlanta

San Diego

Phoenix

Dallas

Jacksonville

Austin

Orlando

New Orleans

West Palm Beach

Tampa

Houston

San Antonio

Ft. Lauderdale

Miami


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State Tax Revenue Growth Outlook% Change

Long-Run Growth


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Tax Revenues

Billions $

Source: Economy.com


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Ballooning Trade Deficit

Trade Deficit

Billions $

Source: Census

Total x

OPEC (L)

China (R)


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Erosion in Sales Tax Efficacy

Sales Taxes as a Share of Consumer Spending

Sources: BEA, Economy.com


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