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Economic and Tax Revenue Outlook. Mark Zandi Economy.com, Inc. Jobs, Millions Source: BLS. Prolonged Suffering. Previous Cycles. Sources: BLS, Economy.com. Early ‘90s Cycle. Current Cycle. States In Recession. Recession. Flat. Expanding. State and Local Government Deficit

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economic and tax revenue outlook

Economic and Tax Revenue Outlook

Mark Zandi

Economy.com, Inc.

slide2

Jobs, Millions

Source: BLS

slide3

Prolonged Suffering

Previous

Cycles

Sources: BLS, Economy.com

Early ‘90s

Cycle

Current

Cycle

states in recession
States In Recession

Recession

Flat

Expanding

slide5

State and Local Government Deficit

Source: BEA

Share of GDP (R)

Billions $ (L)

slide6

Businesses Confidence Rebounds

Business Confidence Survey

January 2003 = 100

4 week Moving Average

Source: Economy.com

slide7

State Government Tax Revenues

Billions $, 4- Quarter Moving Sum

Source: Census

slide8

Tax Payments

Billions $ (L)

Effective

Tax Rate (R)

Source: BEA

slide9

Real GDP Growth

% Change Year Ago

Sources: BEA, Economy.com

Actual

Without

Housing

slide10

Nonfinancial Productivity Growth

% Change Year Ago, 4-Quarter Moving Average

Source: BLS

slide11

Real Wage Growth

% Change Year Ago,

4-Quarter Moving Average

Sources: BLS, BEA

slide12

Profit Margins of Nonfinancial Businesses

4-Quarter Moving Average

Source: BEA

slide14

Road to RecoveryStable Economies

Philadelphia

Baltimore

Las Vegas

Washington, D.C.

Raleigh

Riverside

Orange County

Albuquerque

San Diego

West Palm Beach

Tampa

San Antonio

Ft. Lauderdale

Miami

slide15

Road to Recovery2003 H2Computer Hardware, Distribution

Philadelphia

Central NJ

Oakland

Sacramento

Baltimore

Las Vegas

Washington, D.C.

Norfolk

Raleigh

Los Angeles

Riverside

Memphis

Orange County

Albuquerque

Atlanta

San Diego

Phoenix

Jacksonville

Austin

Orlando

West Palm Beach

Tampa

San Antonio

Ft. Lauderdale

Miami

slide16

Road to Recovery2004 H1Software, Travel

Portland

Minneapolis

Salt Lake City

Philadelphia

Chicago

Central NJ

Oakland

Sacramento

Baltimore

Indianapolis

Las Vegas

San Jose

Washington, D.C.

Norfolk

Raleigh

Los Angeles

Riverside

Memphis

Charlotte

Orange County

Albuquerque

Atlanta

San Diego

Phoenix

Jacksonville

Austin

Orlando

New Orleans

West Palm Beach

Tampa

Houston

San Antonio

Ft. Lauderdale

Miami

slide17

Road to Recovery2004 H2Telecom, Money Management

Portland

Minneapolis

Boston

Pittsburgh

Salt Lake City

Philadelphia

Chicago

Central NJ

Oakland

Sacramento

Baltimore

San Francisco

Indianapolis

Las Vegas

Denver

San Jose

Washington, D.C.

Norfolk

Kansas CIty

Raleigh

Los Angeles

Riverside

Memphis

Charlotte

Orange County

Albuquerque

Atlanta

San Diego

Phoenix

Dallas

Jacksonville

Austin

Orlando

New Orleans

West Palm Beach

Tampa

Houston

San Antonio

Ft. Lauderdale

Miami

slide18

Road to Recovery2005 H1Traditional Manufacturing

Portland

Minneapolis

Boston

Milwaukee

Detroit

Pittsburgh

Salt Lake City

Philadelphia

Chicago

Central NJ

Oakland

Sacramento

Baltimore

San Francisco

Indianapolis

OH MSAs

Las Vegas

Denver

San Jose

Washington, D.C.

Norfolk

Kansas CIty

Raleigh

Los Angeles

Riverside

Memphis

Charlotte

Orange County

Albuquerque

Atlanta

San Diego

Phoenix

Dallas

Jacksonville

Austin

Orlando

New Orleans

West Palm Beach

Tampa

Houston

San Antonio

Ft. Lauderdale

Miami

slide19

Road to Recovery2006 H1Investment Banking, Commercial Aircraft

Seattle

Portland

Minneapolis

Boston

Milwaukee

Detroit

Pittsburgh

Salt Lake City

Broad NYC Region

Philadelphia

Chicago

Central NJ

Oakland

Sacramento

Baltimore

San Francisco

Indianapolis

OH MSAs

Las Vegas

Denver

San Jose

Washington, D.C.

Norfolk

Kansas CIty

Raleigh

Los Angeles

Riverside

Memphis

Charlotte

Orange County

Albuquerque

Atlanta

San Diego

Phoenix

Dallas

Jacksonville

Austin

Orlando

New Orleans

West Palm Beach

Tampa

Houston

San Antonio

Ft. Lauderdale

Miami

slide21

Tax Revenues

Billions $

Source: Economy.com

slide22

Ballooning Trade Deficit

Trade Deficit

Billions $

Source: Census

Total x

OPEC (L)

China (R)

slide23

Erosion in Sales Tax Efficacy

Sales Taxes as a Share of Consumer Spending

Sources: BEA, Economy.com

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