Increasing longevity and decreasing gender mortality differentials: new perspectives from a study on Italian cohorts. Graziella Caselli Dipartimento di Scienze Sociali, Economiche, Attuariali e Demografiche [email protected] Marco Marsili
Dipartimento di Scienze Sociali, Economiche, Attuariali e Demografiche
Direzione Centrale Statistiche e Indagini sulle Istituzioni Sociali
Joint Eurostat-UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections
Lisbon (Portugal), 28-30 April 2010
1. More long-lived, less different
4. Adults and elderly: what causes of death have been, or could be, responsible for their low mortality and their increasing longevity?
2. Data and method
3. Cohort mortality models: why elderly today are different from elderly in the past and in the future?
5. Are women losing some of their advantage or men recouping their disadvantage?
6. Some conclusions
ΔG = 6.9
ΔG = 5.3
M and W
More long-livedANDless different
Age specific age 65 and 80, from 1886 to 2007Sex ratios – over male mortality – in the years 1886, 1979 and 2007
The leading ages of a new mortality model
As we know, different advantage in adulthood?life histories influence the final outcome, anticipating or postponing the age at death. Studies of mortality that start from macro-data claim that the different mortality histories of the cohorts are the result of different life experiences.
Analysing mortality models by age and by cause for succeeding cohorts may be helpful in better understanding the characteristics of the last thirty years in the history of mortality in Italy.
Completing some cohort mortality histories may help us see in which direction the recent mortality trendsmight be going.
is to analyze the developing characteristics of the mortality of the cohorts that entered adult age (45-64 years) at the end of the 1970s and that have become elderly more recently.
The intention is to compare their mortality histories – total and by cause – with those of adults of today, who will be the elderly of tomorrow.
Predictions will be necessary to complete the mortality histories of these cohorts, considering the cause of death too. A cohort perspective will be adopted to studylongevity,BUT PARTICULARLY to analyze the changes of gender survival differences
Data advantage in adulthood?
Mortality rates and/or probabilities by Sex, Leadingcauses of death, Age(0-100), Period and Cohort
From 1861 to 1973 - Department of Demography - Rome (Human mortality database)
From 1974 to 2007 - ISTAT
Cohorts up to 1907 EXTINCT
Cohorts from 1908 to 1965 PARTIALLY OBSERVED
Leading causes of death and corresponding codes advantage in adulthood?
in IX ICD Rev.
Harmonized database in time according to IX ICD REVISION
Caselli G., Long Term Trends in European Mortality, Studies on Medical and Population Subjects, N. 56, OPCS, London.
Caselli G., Health transition and cause specific mortality, in. The decline of mortality in Europe (Edited by R. Schofield, D. Reher and A. Bideau), Clarendon Press, Oxford;
Caselli G., National differences in the Health transition in Europe, Historical Methods, Vol. 29, n. 3;
THE PROJECTION MODEL advantage in adulthood?
To project the risk of death, a model taking account of age, period and cohort components of mortality (APC model) was used.
Parameters to be estimated
PROJECTION STRATEGY advantage in adulthood?
Projections carried out for each cause of death and sex.
The sum of the projected rates represents the overall mortality (“by cause” approach).
Approach = deterministic - single variant
Single Age = 0,1,2,….,100
Jump-off year = 2008
Last projected year = 2065
Last fully projected cohort = 1965
We mainly focus our study on cohorts from 1865 to 1965
Schema advantage in adulthood? for identifying some interesting cohorts, from those of adult age (45-64) in 1967, now extinct, to those who were adult in 2007, who will be extinct in 2037-2047. The cohorts to be followed at the various ages are those aged 45-64 on the blue diagonal
For a advantage in adulthood?synthesis of the main results we will refer to the intermediate cohorts of the various groups, and in particular, the cohorts born in the years 1912, 1922, 1932, 1942 and 1952, also considering the cohorts of 1865 and 1890, now extinct, and the one born in 1965, whose history of mortality in adult and old age is projected from the age 42 years and beyond.
Contributions by age (30+) of the leading causes of death to differences in life expectancy at birth between cohorts 1932-1952, MEN and WOMEN
Adult in the Past vs Adult Today
Deep change in gender differences trend as a result of cohort dynamics in life expectancy at birth
Cohorts aged 45-64 in 1979, showing an increase of gender differences, are those born in 1915-1934
Differences in life expectancy at birth
The leading adult ages of cohort mortality model
SMR’s for ages 45-64 years by Circulatory diseases and Cancers, MEN and WOMEN (per 1000)
SMR’s for ages 45-64, 65-79 and 80+ years by Circulatory diseases and Cancers, MEN and WOMEN (per 1000)
Cohort circulatory mortality at ages 80+ showing the same trend by gender. Observed cancer mortality trend at ages 80+ still increasing for men
Contributions by age (45+) of the leading causes of death to increase or decrease gender differences between two selected cohorts in life expectancy at birth
POSITIVE BAR: contribution to increasing the distance from male life expectancy at birth
NEGATIVE BAR: contribution to bridging the distance from female life expectancy at birth