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LINKAGES AND SYNERGIES OF REGIONAL AND GLOBAL EMISSION CONTROL Workshop of the UN/ECE Task Force on Integrated Assessme

Cooperative programme for monitoring and evaluation of the long-range transmission of air pollutants in Europe. Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution. European Topic Centre on Air and Climate Change. LINKAGES AND SYNERGIES OF REGIONAL AND GLOBAL EMISSION CONTROL

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LINKAGES AND SYNERGIES OF REGIONAL AND GLOBAL EMISSION CONTROL Workshop of the UN/ECE Task Force on Integrated Assessme

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  1. Cooperative programme for monitoringand evaluation of the long-range transmissionof air pollutants in Europe Convention on Long-rangeTransboundary Air Pollution European Topic Centre on Air and Climate Change LINKAGES AND SYNERGIES OF REGIONAL AND GLOBAL EMISSION CONTROL Workshop of the UN/ECE Task Force on Integrated Assessment Modelling January 27-29, 2003 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

  2. Questions • What do we know about the linkages between air pollution and climate change? • How important are these linkages? • Which of these linkages could potentially influence rational policies to control emissions?

  3. Sessions • Physical linkages through atmospheric chemistry • Physical linkages through environmental impacts • Concerns of national decision makers • Synergistic measures: Sectoral perspectives • Strategies to harness synergies • Economic instruments • Modelling approaches

  4. Linkages through atmospheric chemistry • Also air pollutants exert climate impacts • Radiative forcing (RF) of ozone and PM are different in space and time from that of GHGs • Sulphates, nitrates and organic carbon have cooling effect and can reduce precipitation • Black carbon has positive forcing • Ozone has strong positive RF, better understood than that of aerosols • Methane influences RF and ozone • CC impacts on meteorology seem less relevant for the next two decades

  5. Linkages through environmental impacts Numerous linkages exist, not all of them are yet fully understood. • CC might reduce ecosystems sensitivity to acidification • Increased N deposition increases C storage • Air pollution weakens plant growth, reduces C storage • Air pollution and CC affect biodiversity

  6. Synergies of multi-objective strategies • Simultaneous emission controls result in multiple benefits. • Synergies may free resources. • Existing trade-offs should be considered. • Global CO2 stabilization will lead to lower SO2 emissions. Extent depends on how reduction is achieved. • Synergies in agricultural sector important. • Significant ancillary benefits demonstrated in many case studies

  7. Strategic aspects GHG emission trading schemes can have impacts on air pollution: • C trading influences air pollution control costs • C trading affects regional environmental impacts of air pollution. Ancillary (dis-)benefits should be considered. • Effects of C trading are uncertain. This causes a problem for defining an air pollution baseline scenario.

  8. Modelling the linkages • Modelling requires bridging different temporal and spatial scales. • Extension of multi-effect approach? Could offer a systematic tool for choosing multiple targets of different types. • Models will have to address sustainable development and structural changes beyond cost-effectiveness. • Keep models manageable!

  9. The way forward • Extension of RAINS towards greenhouse gas cost curves is underway to • Help decision makers maximizing positive synergies and minimizing trade-offs, and • Selecting most cost-effective measures in view of the objectives of both policy areas. • Primary focus should be on scientific issues. • Improved contacts between air pollution and climate change science communities necessary.

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