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Cooperative programme for monitoring and evaluation of the long-range transmission of air pollutants in Europe. Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution. European Topic Centre on Air and Climate Change. LINKAGES AND SYNERGIES OF REGIONAL AND GLOBAL EMISSION CONTROL

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Cooperative programme for monitoringand evaluation of the long-range transmissionof air pollutants in Europe

Convention on Long-rangeTransboundary Air Pollution

European Topic Centre on Air and Climate Change


Workshop of the UN/ECE Task Force on Integrated Assessment Modelling

January 27-29, 2003

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

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  • What do we know about the linkages between air pollution and climate change?

  • How important are these linkages?

  • Which of these linkages could potentially influence rational policies to control emissions?

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  • Physical linkages through atmospheric chemistry

  • Physical linkages through environmental impacts

  • Concerns of national decision makers

  • Synergistic measures: Sectoral perspectives

  • Strategies to harness synergies

  • Economic instruments

  • Modelling approaches

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Linkages through atmospheric chemistry

  • Also air pollutants exert climate impacts

  • Radiative forcing (RF) of ozone and PM are different in space and time from that of GHGs

  • Sulphates, nitrates and organic carbon have cooling effect and can reduce precipitation

  • Black carbon has positive forcing

  • Ozone has strong positive RF, better understood than that of aerosols

  • Methane influences RF and ozone

  • CC impacts on meteorology seem less relevant for the next two decades

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Linkages through environmental impacts

Numerous linkages exist, not all of them are yet fully understood.

  • CC might reduce ecosystems sensitivity to acidification

  • Increased N deposition increases C storage

  • Air pollution weakens plant growth, reduces C storage

  • Air pollution and CC affect biodiversity

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Synergies of multi-objective strategies

  • Simultaneous emission controls result in multiple benefits.

  • Synergies may free resources.

  • Existing trade-offs should be considered.

  • Global CO2 stabilization will lead to lower SO2 emissions. Extent depends on how reduction is achieved.

  • Synergies in agricultural sector important.

  • Significant ancillary benefits demonstrated in many case studies

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Strategic aspects

GHG emission trading schemes can have impacts on air pollution:

  • C trading influences air pollution control costs

  • C trading affects regional environmental impacts of air pollution. Ancillary (dis-)benefits should be considered.

  • Effects of C trading are uncertain. This causes a problem for defining an air pollution baseline scenario.

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Modelling the linkages

  • Modelling requires bridging different temporal and spatial scales.

  • Extension of multi-effect approach? Could offer a systematic tool for choosing multiple targets of different types.

  • Models will have to address sustainable development and structural changes beyond cost-effectiveness.

  • Keep models manageable!

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The way forward

  • Extension of RAINS towards greenhouse gas cost curves is underway to

    • Help decision makers maximizing positive synergies and minimizing trade-offs, and

    • Selecting most cost-effective measures in view of the objectives of both policy areas.

  • Primary focus should be on scientific issues.

  • Improved contacts between air pollution and climate change science communities necessary.