Product Development

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Slide 1: New Food Products and New Food Product Development

Dr. Desmond Hill 1st February 2008

Slide 2:NPD Format

Definition of NPD and defining new food products and their characteristics PLC The “why” of why undertake NPD and the various phases in NPD The generation of new product ideas and going to market – success or failure? Current consumer trends and demands in NPD

Slide 3:NPD…

“… the lifeblood of food companies” “Commonly accepted that NPD is the only path that a food company can follow for long-term survival in the ever-growing competitive market” (Saguy & Moskowitz, 2002)

NPD… “Worryingly… a significant number of food companies are not actively developing any new food products, while many that are engaged in new product development do not explicitly involve consumers in their research” (DeBurca & Ledwith 2000)

Slide 5:Defining new products and their characteristics New products Added value Customers and consumers Markets and marketplaces

Slide 6:A. What is a new product ?

“A product not previously manufactured by a company and introduced by that company into its marketplace or the presentation by a company of an established product perhaps in a new form or into a new market not previously explored by that company” (Fuller, 2004) A very simple definition is … A very simple definition is …

Slide 7:General characteristics of classes of new food products

Line extensions A variant of an established line of food products Little time or research is required for development No major manufacturing changes in processing lines or major equipment needed Little change in marketing strategy No new storage or handling techniques needed Don’t confuse with brand extensions Re : Marketing there can be some exceptions e.g. confectionary products originally positioned for children will face problems if adult flavours are introduced. Children may not appreciate the flavours and adults may not accept the products if they don’t realise that the product is flavoured for them.Don’t confuse with brand extensions Re : Marketing there can be some exceptions e.g. confectionary products originally positioned for children will face problems if adult flavours are introduced. Children may not appreciate the flavours and adults may not accept the products if they don’t realise that the product is flavoured for them.

Slide 8:2. Repositioning existing products New use for an existing product Research and development time is minimal Manufacturing is comparatively unaffected Marketing must develop new strategies and promotional materials to penetrate new market niche

Perhaps from consumer’s letters or surveys. E.g. red bull and vodka Baking soda as a deodorant in fridges for food odoursPerhaps from consumer’s letters or surveys. E.g. red bull and vodka Baking soda as a deodorant in fridges for food odours

Slide 9:3. New form or size of an existing product Advantages/improvements must be perceived as an advantage by customers and consumers Highly variable impact on research and development Highly variable impact on physical plant and manufacturing capabilities Marketing and sales resources will require extensive reprogramming

For example a paste product converted to a tablet or sauce to a powderFor example a paste product converted to a tablet or sauce to a powder

Slide 10:4. Reformulation of existing products Moderate research and development required Generally little impact on physical facilities Generally little impact on marketing and sales resources (unless reformulation leads to repositioning)

Can be a marketing dilema for a company. If the product is an improvement why was it not offered in the first place.Can be a marketing dilema for a company. If the product is an improvement why was it not offered in the first place.

Slide 11:5. New packaging of existing product Novelty of packaging will dictate amount and degree of research and development Slight impact on physical facilities. May need new packaging equipment Little impact on marketing, sales and distribution resources

For example bulk produce into unit packaging e.g. potatoes, apples etc MAP and controlled atmospheric packaging extends shelf lie. Biobased packaging materials – marketing ploy for environmentally sound features. For example bulk produce into unit packaging e.g. potatoes, apples etc MAP and controlled atmospheric packaging extends shelf lie. Biobased packaging materials – marketing ploy for environmentally sound features.

Slide 12:6. Innovative products “to make changes to an existing product” (The Concise Oxford English Dictionary) Amount of research and development depends on nature of innovation Highly variable impact on manufacturing capabilities Possibly heavy impact on marketing and sales resources

Generally the development of innovative products is costlier and riskier than any of the other paths mentioned in new products.Generally the development of innovative products is costlier and riskier than any of the other paths mentioned in new products.

Slide 13:7. Creative Products “… to bring into existence” Generally heavy need for extensive research and development Extensive development time may be required May require new plant and equipment Requires total revision of marketing and sales forces Risk of failure is very high

Very costly When creative products are successful, imitators rapidly flood the market with me-too products. Far less development time will be needed even if the product is as creative. Similarly development costs and costs of market entry will be greatly reduced. Truly creative products have greater costs and development times that may be measured in years rather than weeks or monthsVery costly When creative products are successful, imitators rapidly flood the market with me-too products. Far less development time will be needed even if the product is as creative. Similarly development costs and costs of market entry will be greatly reduced. Truly creative products have greater costs and development times that may be measured in years rather than weeks or months

Slide 14:B. Added value

Describes the degree of innovation or change that makes a product more desirable to customers and consumers “any technique that effects a physical or chemical change in a food or any activity that adds value to a product” (Meltzer, 1991) Requires: advanced technology and labour to reduce losses from spoilage with a more fragile product new marketing and sales techniques new distribution network for a fragile product e.g. improved stability, better odour, texture or even a better service or convenience, less prep time, less waste etc e.g. peeled veg and fruit e.g. improved stability, better odour, texture or even a better service or convenience, less prep time, less waste etc e.g. peeled veg and fruit

Product development adds value in several ways PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT GROWTH PRODUCTIVITY IMPROVEMENT BRAND MAINTENANCE QUALTITY Line Extensions New Products New Packages Reduce Cost Formulas Packages Manufacturing Procedures Quality of Design Competitive Advantage Conformance Special Situations Regulatory Environmental Specifications

Slide 16:C. Customers and Consumers

Customers – “the gatekeepers” Family members Purchasing departments of companies/stores, restaurants/hotels/hospitals Chefs Consumer uses what is purchased by the Customer. Can be the same person Customer makes choices according to their and others Likes and dislikes Allergies Disposable income Commercial industrial requirements The terms customers and consumers are often substituted for each other yet they describe two different entities and should not be confused. A customer is the one who buys in a marketplace. This person is attracted by sales material, promotions, or tastings in the marketplace. Family members who decide what will be purchased for the household. Chefs who plan menus and decide on what raw materials they ant to use. Pet owners who decide what pet food will be purchased. Retailers are mostly interested in customers since the customer buys.The terms customers and consumers are often substituted for each other yet they describe two different entities and should not be confused. A customer is the one who buys in a marketplace. This person is attracted by sales material, promotions, or tastings in the marketplace. Family members who decide what will be purchased for the household. Chefs who plan menus and decide on what raw materials they ant to use. Pet owners who decide what pet food will be purchased. Retailers are mostly interested in customers since the customer buys.

Slide 17:D. Markets and Marketplaces

A market is conceptual – represents a need discovered in customers and consumers that marketing personnel hope to develop into a want, a potential to sell A marketplace is a real physical entity – products are sold here e.g. farmer’s roadside stall to a hyper market Each has a unique meaning For example there could be a market for low calorie chocolate, low calorie pet food.Each has a unique meaning For example there could be a market for low calorie chocolate, low calorie pet food.

Slide 18: Product Life Cycle (PLC) & Why Undertake NPD

Slide 19:PLC

Every product has a life cycle 5 distinct phase in the life cycle

Slide 20:PLC Curve

1 2 3 4 5 The horizontal axis is a measure of time. The vertical axis is an index of the product’s acceptance, either volume of cases sold or pounds.The horizontal axis is a measure of time. The vertical axis is an index of the product’s acceptance, either volume of cases sold or pounds.

Slide 21:Product Life Cycle

Introductory phase - 1 Large promotions, in-store demonstrations and advertising to gain introduction. Initial low sales – consumers are educated about product Growth phase - 2 First time buyers begin repeat buying and new customers are attracted. Positive acceleration of sales growth. Growth continues as new markets entered (but continued promotion and expansion are costly) Saturation phase - 3 Growth accelerates negatively

Slide 22:Product Life Cycle Continued

Mature phase - 4 Sales are constant – stagnating market A decline phase - 5 Competitive products adversely affect sales. Promotions too costly to maintain. Manufacturing of the product ceases

Slide 23:Decline in new food product development…

Consolidation of many food companies therefore, there is a reduction of product lines Better market and customer research has reduced number of potential product failures early in development processes Retailers are giving more attention and space to their own private label Product saturation in some categories Despite the apparent decrease in new food product development, customers still see thousands of new products each year. Obviously the sheer number of introductions shows that companies believe that new products are important to their economic futures.Despite the apparent decrease in new food product development, customers still see thousands of new products each year. Obviously the sheer number of introductions shows that companies believe that new products are important to their economic futures.

Slide 24:Odds against success

Failure rate : 1 in 6 to 1 in 20 1 in 58 product ideas develops into a successful product (Skarra, 1998) Results vary – difficult to identify at which stage was the estimate made – - in the laboratory - in a mini test market; - 1 year after product launch - who decided on what a successful market share was? - If a product was successful in a regional market but fails nationally is this a failure? - If a product plods along and grows slowly and steadily but fails to reach the profit targets in the time established by management is this a failure? Unfortunately few of these thousands of new products will be rewarded with repeat purchases or even last a year from their introduction. The fail due to a number of reasons.Unfortunately few of these thousands of new products will be rewarded with repeat purchases or even last a year from their introduction. The fail due to a number of reasons.

Slide 25:Some general reasons for NPD

All products have life cycles - products do not last forever. Must be replaced or reinvigorated by heavy marketing if they are to survive New products contribute hugely to a company’s profit picture New products offer the opportunity for aggressive growth to satisfy management’s long-range business goals New markets may be created – ff’s – companies tempted to enter

Slide 26:Some general reasons for NPD

New knowledge and technologies make previous concepts feasible Changes in government legislation, health programmes, agricultural policy may require the development of new products

Slide 27:Population movement brings changes in ethnic backgrounds and changes in food habits/preferences/needs Populations age and children move away from home. Young people just starting their careers move so economic cross section of a community may change Areas become reborn as fashionable areas for DINKY’s – different food needs and habits

Some general reasons for NPD Overall there will be changes in ethnic make-up, incomes, education and lifestyles of customers and consumers. All will determine what market niches for food products will develop and what marketplaces are suitable for placing products in these neighbourhoods Overall there will be changes in ethnic make-up, incomes, education and lifestyles of customers and consumers. All will determine what market niches for food products will develop and what marketplaces are suitable for placing products in these neighbourhoods

Slide 28:Customers and consumers are more concerned about their health and the role of food and nutrition in their health and the prevention of disease Food labelling, computers etc provides greater information on meal planning and recipes to shoppers Social scientists have developed better techniques to understand customer and consumer behaviour and emotions – improved skills to conceive new products for customers and consumers Retailers are using their knowledge of buyers’ behaviour to attract customers e.g. food odours in delis and supermarkets

Some general reasons for NPD

Slide 29:Key factors influencing NPD in the UK

Diet and Health Increase in growth of Europe / Internationalisation Niche areas Increasing demand for quality Profit “Greying” of the population Less time and increasing demand for convenience

Identified Diet and Health concerns in the EU that are influencing NPD A major force for NPD in the food industry Identified nutrition concerns: Obesity – adults and children Insufficient intakes of certain nutrients (e.g. folic acid – NTD’s) High intakes of salt (increased consumption of processed foods) Low fibre intakes High sugar intakes High fat intakes (trans) Manufactures have attempted to appeal to the health-conscious consumer with foods low in fat and sugar, high in fibre or made with beneficial bacterial cultures Identified environmental concerns in the EU that are influencing NPD Water pollution – nitrates, phosphates, pesticides, herbicides CO2 emission Loss of biodiversity through pollution and destruction of terrestrial ecosystems CFC from aerosol cans Food miles Non-degradable packaging recycling and biodegradable packaging organic and low-intensity farming products sourcing local suppliers

Slide 32:Identified food safety concerns in the EU that are influencing NPD

BSE Food poisoning Traceability of foods GM Foods Food irradiation Food additives (sudan 1, aspartame?)

Slide 33:Identified Animal Welfare concerns in the EU that are influencing NPD

Treatment of animals – battery chickens, foie gras etc. Slaughtering processes Transportation of animals

Demographic Factors influencing NPD Increase of women in the paid labour force Increased demand for convenience products and a decrease in the “family meal” in favour of snacking Development of snacking style foods (particularly for teenagers) with an emphasis on health as well as convenience Aging population, increases in divorce and postponement of marriage has led to household size. This has led to convenience foods and packaging sizes for of individual and two portion packs

Slide 35:Phases in NPD

Slide 36:NPD

Can be divided into distinct phases Few agree on the number, order or names of the phases Many describe it as a sequence – a one-after-the-other cascade from idea to finished product Phases overlap and often are concurrent

The NPD Process Stages may vary but should start and end with the consumer- need for systematic involvement of the consumer at all phases Consumer & Market Research - Current & changing trends - Work patterns, Lifestyles and Leisure - Population trends & family structures - Cultural habits (social attitudes, cooking & eating habits) To ensure success, you need good strategic management and good product development execution PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT EXECUTION STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Slide 39:Overview of the stages of NPD

Holmes (1968, 1977) Crockett (1969) Mattson (1970) Company objectives Search opportunities Idea generation Exploration Translation of concepts Concept screening into products Screening Marketing plan Prelim formulation Business analysis Implementation of Final formulation marketing plan Development Trial placement Testing Fine tuning Commercialization Package design Product success Mini-market test Symbiotic distribution

Slide 40:Overview of the stages of NPD

Oickle (1990) Graf & Saguy (1991) Skarra (1998) Exploration Screening Assessing management Conception Feasibility commitment Modelling (prototypes) Development Finding the right idea R & D Commercialization Dev. Business case Market testing Maintenance Development & Major introductions commercialization

Slide 41:Key common stages

Stage 1 Establish company objectives – in order for all personnel to know what is planned and why Identify customer and consumer needs

Slide 42:Stage 2 Market and marketplace research – perceived needs of customers and consumers Product and Market profile produced Need to beware of: “me to” and “me too lates” novelty vs. necessity credibility & new improved versions Continuous evaluation is vital throughout - deciding whether to continue project as initially conceived, continue in modified form OR terminate before too much money has been spent. Risk to be managed!!

Slide 43:Stage 3

Ideas generated and reduced to a manageable few that are deemed most worthy Screening criteria used: Is the idea feasible with the time frame and skills available (all department need to be involved) Does the idea meet perceived customer and consumer needs; and Will a financially sound business plan based on these new products meet the objectives set by management Screening improves probability of success Does not eliminate ideas – perhaps ‘wrong’ timing and will be reconsidered later All rejected ideas should be recorded with the reasons state

Slide 44:For viable concepts, “technical” development begins. Two documents initiate & direct work

The Product Specification - Can cover areas such as: - raw materials, recipe - method / process flow chart - critical control points - analytical and microbiological standards - pack declarations, consumer instructions - export considerations - packaging specification shelf life - time & temperature - finished product weights / volumes & tolerances

Slide 45:The Development Brief (document for acceptance) Can include: Origination date, reference number version number Names & authorisation, project title and objectives Product description Target price Capital availability Projected volume Pack size Shelf & storage life requirements Packaging & mode of distribution Target customers Labelling claims Time scale

The main requirements for pre-packed foods Food Labelling Regulations 1996 There are 2 general rules: Labelling, presentation and advertising should not mislead the purchaser Labelling should not carry any medicinal claim i.e. a statement that it has the property of preventing, treating or curing a human disease or a statement with any reference to such properties Labelling The name of the food List of ingredients Quantity of certain ingredients The net quantity Date of minimum durability Any special storage conditions or conditions of use Name and address of the manufacturer, packaging company or seller Place of origin, if omission of such information would mislead Any necessary instructions for use Alcoholic strength by volume for beverages containing more than 1.2% by volume Issues manufacturers need to consider in deciding whether or not to include nutritional information: Is it required by legislation - what are the regulatory requirements? Can the company conform with these? Will it be helpful to my customer / do they require the information? Are my competitors providing nutritional information Will it give me an advantage over the competition? Is there space on the label? Provisions of the current legislation If given must be in one of two formats: Group 1 – “the Big 4” – Energy, Protein and Carbohydrate and Fat (in that order) Group 2 – “the Big 4 plus little 4” –Energy, Protein and Carbohydrate and Fat, Saturates, Fibre, Sodium (in that order) Quantities must be given /100g or /100ml or /100g or /100ml plus per serving

Slide 50:Provisions of the current legislation

Information must be given in one place, in tabular form, with the numbers aligned if space permits Declarations may also be made in respect of vitamins and minerals but must be present in “significant values” – 15% of RDA supplied / 100g or /100ml or /packet if packet is only 1 serving)

Nutrient Claims Information must be given if a claim is made e.g. “low in fat” Group 1 information must be given Very often Group 2 information is given but this would only be compulsory if a claim was made for one of the little 4 e.g. “low in saturated fat” Claims Low energy – no more than 167KJ (40kcal)/100g or 100ml Low Fat – no more than 3g/100g for solids or /100ml for liquids Fat Free – no more than 0.15g/100g or 100ml Low saturates – no more than 1.5g/100g and < 10% of total energy Saturates free – < 0.1g/100g or 100ml Low sugar – no more than 5g/100g or 100ml Sugar free – no more than 0.2g/100g or 100ml Claims Low salt/sodium – no more than 40mg sodium/100g or 100ml Salt free – no more than 5mg sodium /100g or 100ml Increased fibre – at least 25% more than a similar food for which no claim is made or at least 3g in the reasonable daily intake of a food High fibre – at least 6g/100g or 100ml or at least 6g in the reasonable expected daily intake of the foods

Slide 54:Stage 4 Development – technical skills of Research and Development (R&D) are used to create bench-top prototypes as development proceeds Information used to make decisions on standards on raw materials, ingredients, packaging requirements, equipment requirements etc. Original business plan is refined with more complete information on ingredients, processing and marketing costs

Slide 55:Stage 4 continued

Sourcing of ingredients and packaging Marketing people develop draft labels and statements Marketing strategy developed Promotional material for use in newspapers, TV, radio etc. Throughout Go or No-Go decisions will be made

Slide 56: Stage 5 Production samples for consumer trials can be scaled up in a number of ways: Kitchen sample (1-2kg) Pilot scale (10-20kg) Factory scale (100kg+) Management decide whether to go into a test market Company may wish to conduct Mini market trial Trials in one or two cities A regional launch

Slide 57:Stage 6 Launch – need to consider the consumer Who buys the product? Consumer awareness / product recognition? Where is it bought, personal and regional tastes? Attitudes to product and price? When the product is consumed and types of complaints? Evaluation – if test was unsuccessful then weaknesses must be determined and corrected Strong points of the company’s progress must also be recognised in order for the company to capitalize on what they did right

Successful Product Development Must be on time, within budget and within specification. Need : company wide commitment : broad use of resources and involvement : good communication and motivation : creative synergy : commercial awareness : clearly understood objectives & a good brief

Slide 59:The Generation of New Product Ideas

Slide 60:New Idea Criteria

They satisfy needs and desires of consumers and at the same time attract customers (gatekeepers!) – seed of idea must come from those who will need and use the product Ideas must be within the skill level, technical capabilities and managerial and financial resources of the producing company Ideas must be able to be implemented Thinking up ideas is not a problem. The problem is getting them to fit the following criteriaThinking up ideas is not a problem. The problem is getting them to fit the following criteria

Slide 61:Sources of New Food Product Ideas

1. The many marketplaces Customer and consumer found in many diverse marketplaces convenience stores grocery store independent retailers – butchers, bakery etc, food service, industrial arena, electronic and postal services… Must decide in which marketplace the new product will be positioned and how best to research that market

Slide 62:Sources of New Food Product Ideas

2. Know your consumer Census data – age distribution, income distribution, number of family units and non-family units, male : female, ethnic backgrounds, home owners, renting etc Magazine subscription lists or sales in local areas i.e. sales of topical magazines reveal interests – good food, house and home Reward/store cards – provide information on purchases, amounts purchased and location of purchases

Slide 63:Surveys (interview, postal, telephone. Reflect attitudes and behaviours of consumer Qualities can be designed into products to meet needs and expectations e.g. low-fat, low-salt

Sources of New Food Product Ideas

Slide 64:Sources of New Food Product Ideas

3. Seller/Retailer and Distributor What items are purchased and which are not selling well? Which items are purchased as a function of the total grocery bill? Which stores have the highest average purchase per receipt? Which items are purchased together – ideas for combining?

Slide 65:Sources of New Food Product Ideas

4. Gap Analysis Market researchers select a product category and examine the marketplace for an empty space in the category E.g. Grid drawn and each row describes some product attribute – colour, size, function, form etc. When the grid is filled in with data from the marketplace ideas for new products may be generated by empty spaces in the grid – may be for good reasons

Slide 66:Example of grid for hot condiments

Solid Gas

Slide 67:Sources of New Food Product Ideas

5. Ideas from the company Sales personnel act as sensors in the marketplace Aware of what is moving quickly, what competition exists etc

Slide 68:Sources of New Food Product Ideas

6. Ideas from the consumer Complaints Enquiries Suggestions Seeking clarification for use in a special diet etc.

Slide 69:Sources of New Food Product Ideas

7. The competition Need to know what competitors are doing. Inspections of products (inc. sensory and compositional analyses) will provide data that will allow: comparison of ingredients to estimate costs and thus estimation of profit margins an assessment of quality characteristics of the company’s product versus competition an evaluation of flavour preferences an evaluation of package and label preferences

Slide 70:Sources of New Food Product Ideas

8. Food conferences and trade shows Showcases for new development and technologies Access to vast arrays of food products, ingredients and technology Research conferences will reveal latest research well ahead of it being published Networking

Slide 71:9. Other sources Libraries – cookbooks etc Internet – various databases on food related issues Trade Literature – new products and processes Travel, eating out, visiting retailers, .... Government publications – useful for demographic data

Sources of New Food Product Ideas

Slide 72:Failures in the market place

Success or failure often hinges on elements outside R&D Marketing mainly responsible 4 P’s – product, place, price and promotion

Slide 73:External reasons for product failure

Market is too small – growth potential limited Market controlled by a dominant competitor – company may end up battling for customers as well as with competitors Me-to product Where technical novelty has been designed into a product e.g. flavoured ketchup customer may not see the difference or point of the change Product ahead of it’s time

Slide 74:Internal reasons for product failure

Poor management Lack of communication Lack of awareness of strengths and weaknesses within the company Lack of company objectives Lack of production capacity – company has to be able to supply on demand Unnatural adherence to and support for a project - i.e. pet projects Technical reasons – product did not live up to the standards promised Expecting too much Not being lucky

Slide 75:Current Food Trends

Top ten trends for the next decade Do-it-for-me foods Super savoury and sophisticated Balance Bits, bites and bags New kind of “Home Span” Influence of children Light and lively Crossover meal patterns Health – “Do it Yourself” Clean, pure, natural and safe

Slide 76:Trend 1- “Do-it-for-me-foods”

Fresh-heat and serve Pre-cut, cleaned, ready-to-cook vegetable items Fresh-cut salads Stir-fry’s Pre-prepared fresh fish /poultry Marinated meats READY MEALS Ready Meal Market "In the UK the ready-made meal has undergone a change of image from being deemed as unhealthy, lazy food to being repositioned as a premium, indulgent option.” 2003- £4.7 billion (EU) UK - 42% of all sales, France - 21%, Germany -20%, Italy -9%, and Spain - 7% Indian, Chinese and other Asian recipes - 40% of the chilled ready-made market across Europe. 30% of adults in the UK eat a ready-made meal 1/wk vs 16% France 80% of the UK population owns a microwave vs Italy- 27% 50% of dinners made in 30mins or less, consumers now want it to be 15mins or less. Any product that eliminates work or clean-up will have enormous appeal. Ready Meal Market "In the UK the ready-made meal has undergone a change of image from being deemed as unhealthy, lazy food to being repositioned as a premium, indulgent option.” 2003- £4.7 billion (EU) UK - 42% of all sales, France - 21%, Germany -20%, Italy -9%, and Spain - 7% Indian, Chinese and other Asian recipes - 40% of the chilled ready-made market across Europe. 30% of adults in the UK eat a ready-made meal 1/wk vs 16% France 80% of the UK population owns a microwave vs Italy- 27% 50% of dinners made in 30mins or less, consumers now want it to be 15mins or less. Any product that eliminates work or clean-up will have enormous appeal.

Slide 77:Trend 2 – Super Savoury & Sophisticated

More people well travelled Better technology More disposable income “Flavour fortification” of cheeses, tortillas, breads, pastas, rice and soups with more flavour Six cuisines have enjoyed significant growth in popularity in the last few years – Italian, Mexican, Japanese, Thai, Caribbean and Middle Eastern Four cuisines have shown a decline – French, German, Scandinavian and Soul food Italian, Mexican, and Chinese are now mainstream cuisines (in 1994 56% of consumers said there were a number of foods they would never eat. In 2003 this dropped to 26% - increased willingness to experiment) Italian, Mexican, and Chinese are now mainstream cuisines (in 1994 56% of consumers said there were a number of foods they would never eat. In 2003 this dropped to 26% - increased willingness to experiment)

Slide 78:Trend 3 – Balance

Increased protein trends Increased fish / shellfish More-health conscious shoppers are looking for greater balance and nutritional convenience in prepared meals

Slide 79:Trend 4 – Form follows function – Bits, Bites and Bags

Appetizers represent one of the most versatile food forms for the decade ahead They are bite sized - convenient Vehicle for socializing and sharing Economical way to sample new tastes Consumers more mobile than ever – eating from desk-side to road-side, hand held foods are projected to rapidly increase. Examples inc. tapas, spring rolls, mini-skewers, grilled veggies, mini meat pies, mini quiches…..

Slide 80:Trend 5 – A new kind of “Home Span”

Renewed emphasis on family, friends and food More than 70% of men say they would give up some of their pay to spend more time at home with their families Home is still the favourite place to eat Family sized portions – perfect for sharing will be demanded Examples – big bowls, stir-frys and pasta all lend themselves to this friendlier form of communal dining

Slide 81:Trend 6 – Influence of Children

Children have always been big business Often the supermarket is the first store a child will visit Children can influence family spending on food by as much as 30% Many always or often influence the purchase of: snacks (75%) breakfast (72%) lunch (62%) dessert (47%) However, rising numbers of overweight/obese kids has put a new spin on children’s food products e.g. sunny delight – no sugar, mini pack of fruit and vegetables low-sugar/salt ready meals….

Slide 82:Trend 7 – Light and Lively

Shift from classical French techniques to those of the Pacific Rim Demand for more natural and fresher products, ingredients and presentation Freshness - Trends for raw foods, seasonal and regional foods Herbs – basil, dill, ginger, coriander, rosemary, lemon grass, fennel will be used far more Cooking methods will include poaching, stir-frying, sautéing, en papiolette Visual presentation to make food look fresh and healthy - “layered look”

Slide 83:Trend 8 – Crossover meal patterns

Meal time is any time, and just about anything goes Curry/pizza/Chinese for breakfast, cereals for dinner! Contrary to popular belief the vast majority of Europeans and Americans eat some form of breakfast During 2003 – 85% of adults U.K. & N.I. reported to eating breakfast (cooked and un-cooked)

Slide 84:Trend 8 – Crossover meal patterns

The most important criteria seems to be no – or very limited preparation. Breakfast sandwiches and non-traditional sandwiches, breakfast bars and yoghurts Lunch – more workplaces have microwaves – hence frozen dinners, soups, pizza, pasta and chicken nuggets are becoming popular Snacks - With 20% of Kilo calories coming from snacks, it is obvious that the distribution between snacks and meals is blurring

Trend 9 – Health – “Do-It-Yourself” Consumers continue to take more and more responsibility for their own health Natural, fortified, functional and performance – enhancing foods are soaring 60% of Americans believe that the kitchen cupboard offers the best treatment In the U.S. 74% are more likely to treat themselves before seeing a Doctor

Slide 86:Trend 9 – Health – “Do-It-Yourself”

Usage of avoidance products is high (e.g. fat, sugar, calories) High-protein, low-Carbohydrate regimens are still quite popular Dietary fibre SALT

Slide 87:Trend 10 – Clean, Pure, Natural and Safe

Purer and “more-close-to-nature” foods - Fuelled by BSE, food poisoning outbreaks and import contamination, environmental runoff and GM ingredients Organic, all-natural, additive/preservative free, free-range, non GM represent a strong and sustainable market in the future

Slide 88:Some UK and NI grocery predictions for the next 5 years (NIFDA)

Smaller households – increase demand for: - smaller pack sizes - products with a longer shelf life - flexible shopping formats e.g. small town-centre outlets, convenience stores More working women – - convenience foods - snack foods - ready meals - weaken the role of many specialist shops as supermarkets become the main shopping trip Shopping: - more time-starved and cash-rich shoppers will turn to Internet- based grocery shopping

Conclusion Trend is for: Creative convenience Healthy produce Freshness Close to nature and Quality and culinary sophistication
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