Bucharest 9 10 april 2008 marijana bedna
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Bucharest, 9-10 April 2008 Marijana Bednaš. SLOVENIA IMAD Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development OECD Meeting of Senior Budget Officials from Central- Eastern European Countries. Main activities. Monitoring and forecasting economic trends

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Bucharest 9 10 april 2008 marijana bedna

Bucharest, 9-10 April 2008 Marijana Bednaš

SLOVENIAIMAD Institute ofMacroeconomicAnalysisandDevelopmentOECD Meetingof Senior BudgetOfficialsfrom Central-EasternEuropeanCountries


Main activities
Mainactivities

  • Monitoring and forecasting economic trends

    • Slovenian Economic Mirror – SEM (monthly )

    • Spring and Autumn Forecast (official forecast)

    • Economic Issues (assessment of fiscal developments)

  • Participating in government decision making

    • Slovenia’s Development Strategy

    • Development Report (annual )

    • participating in key government bodies and documents

    • EU: Lisbon strategy, Economic Policy Committee

  • Research

    • working papers, Social Report (biannual ), occasional books

    • international cooperation (conference, projects)


Organisation
Organisation

  • Over 60 people in 5 sectors

  • Horizontal working teams

    • forecasting

    • balance of payments

    • public finance

    • labor market and human resources

  • Project groups

  • Organisation is always partly result of reason and partly result of habits


Sectors
Sectors

  • Macroecomic analysis and economic policy

    • macroeconomic policies

    • trends and forecasts of agregate demand components and prices

    • synthetical and ad hoc reports

  • Economic competitiveness and structural changes

    • analysis of competitiveness and its factors (RR, ICT, knowledge investment, unit costs, entreprenuership, infrastructure, regulations, environment)

    • sectoral trends and forecasts

    • structural changes


Sectors1
Sectors

  • Welfare and social development

    • social welfare and quality of life

    • reforms of the welfare state and social policy

    • long term sustainability

  • Quantitative analysis and national accounts

    • national accounts

    • economic modeling

    • Statistics

  • General services


Legal status
Legal status

  • Office of the government, directly responsible to prime minister

    • formerly office within a ministry

    • director is a public servant, nominated by gvt for 5 years

  • Statutorily secured independence in forecasting and analysis

  • In reality, independence depends on

    • credibility

    • personality

    • competition

    • conservative communication


Legislation
Legislation

  • IMAD is obliged by a government act, which defines its legal status, to make professional and unbiased forecast

  • Decree on the Documents of Development Planning and the Criteria and Procedures for Preparing the Draft National Budget - forecasts are prepared twice a year


Transparency
Transparency

  • Transparency of forecasts is provided by detailed analytical explication and extensive statistical appendix

  • Realisation of forecasts is monitored through regular analyses, results published in SEM


Independence validity assessment of imad s forecasts
Independence – validityassessmentofIMAD’sforecasts

  • A comparison with the forecasts made by other forecasting institutions repeatedly shows that the IMAD is successful in forecasting economic categories

  • Measuresofquality (the mean error - ME) for IMAD show thatthere’s no systematic divergence from the actual figures, whichindicates no-biasapproach (forecastsdo not systematically under- or overestimate the actual value of the variable)


Independence validity assessment of imad s forecasts1
Independence – validityassessmentofIMAD’sforecasts


Independence validity assessment of imad s forecasts2
Independence – validityassessmentofIMAD’sforecasts


Independence validity assessment of imad s forecasts3
Independence – validityassessmentofIMAD’sforecasts


Independence validity assessment of imad s forecasts4
Independence – validityassessmentofIMAD’sforecasts


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