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Public Health Case Study. Mark Wathen Is This Really Okay for Me? A Public Health Statistical Analysis CDC’s 2005 Science Ambassador Program. Case Study Outline. Public Health Surveillance Epidemiological Studies Calculations Prevalence Incidence Risk Ratio Prevention. Public Health.

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Public health case study l.jpg

Public Health Case Study

Mark Wathen

Is This Really Okay for Me?A Public Health Statistical Analysis

CDC’s 2005 Science Ambassador Program


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Case Study Outline

  • Public Health

  • Surveillance

  • Epidemiological Studies

    • Calculations

      • Prevalence

      • Incidence

      • Risk Ratio

  • Prevention


  • Public health l.jpg
    Public Health

    • Is the science and art of preventing disease, prolonging life, and promoting health through the organized efforts of society including

      • Monitoring disease and other health-related conditions (surveillance); and

      • Identifying and quantifying important trends (epidemiology).


    Surveillance l.jpg
    Surveillance

    • Is the monitoring of the occurrence of a disease or other health-related condition.

      • Active surveillance

        • Actively searching for people with a disease or condition.

      • Passive surveillance

        • Dependent on reporting from external sources.


    Epidemiology l.jpg
    Epidemiology

    • The study of the distribution, determinants, and deterrents of disease or other health-related conditions.

      • Distribution is the frequency and patterns in terms of person, place, and time (who, where, and when).

      • Determinants are factors that cause or contribute to a disease or condition.

      • Deterrents are factors that prevent or reduce the chance of developing a disease or condition.


    Prevalence l.jpg

    Prevalence = Number of people affected

    ______________________________________

    total population

    Prevalence

    • The proportion of a population that has a disease or health-related condition during a specific time.


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    Case Study

    • February 2004.

    • School nurse reported 39 cases of the flu in the high school.

    • Age of students 14–18 years

    • Total of 780 students in the school.

    • What was the prevalence of the flu for this high school?


    Prevalence calculation l.jpg

    Prevalence = Number of people affected

    ______________________

    total population

    Prevalence = 39 students with flu

    _____________________

    780 total students

    Prevalence = 5 out of every 100 students had the flu. Can also be said 5% of students had the flu.

    Prevalence Calculation

    • Report who, where, and when.

      • Population: Students aged 14–18

      • Place: High school

      • Time: February 2004


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    Case Study—Continued

    • Results 5 out of 100 students had the flu.

    • Monitor the situation during the month of March (2004).

    • 9 new cases of flu within the school.

    • Calculate the incidence during this time period.


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    Incidence

    • The rate at which new disease or health-related condition occurs in a population.

    Incidence = Number of newly affected people

    ___________________________________

    population at risk

    Incidence = 9 new cases of flu

    ___________________

    (780 – 39) population at risk

    Incidence = 12 out of 1,000 students had the flu at the high school


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    Case—Study Continued

    • Results—12 out of 1,000 students had the flu.

    • What is the cause?

    • A teacher mentioned seeing students coughing and sneezing around the candy machine.

    • The nurse investigated to see if there was any correlation between the candy machine and having the flu.


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    Case Study—Continued

    • The nurse monitored 200 students over a 1-month period.

    • 120 used the candy machine.

    • 12 cases of flu occurred in this group.

    • 5 cases of flu appeared in the group that didn’tuse the candy machine.

    • So was there a risk in using the candy machine?


    Prevalence ratio l.jpg
    Prevalence Ratio

    • Ratio of prevalence of disease in the exposed group divided by the prevalence of disease in the unexposed group.


    Prevalence ratio 2 2 table l.jpg

    Prevalence Ratio = A / (A+B)

    _______

    C / (C+D)

    Prevalence Ratio 22 Table


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    Prevalence Ratio = 12 / (120)

    = 1.6

    _______

    5 / (80)

    Prevalence Ratio 22 Table


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    Analysis of Prevalence Ratio

    • If value >1, then exposure is producing outcome.

    • If value =1, no connection between exposure and outcome.

    • If value <1, exposure is prohibiting the outcome.

    • In the case study, the prevalence ratio was 1.6. Therefore, students using the candy machine were 1.6 times as likely to get the flu as students not using the candy machine.


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    Prevention

    • The final step of public health is prevention.

    • If you were the school nurse, what prevention program would you develop for your school?


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    Summary

    • Pubic health is the science and art of preventing disease, prolonging life, and promoting health through the organized efforts of society.

    • There are three parts to public health:

      • Surveillance, which monitors diseases and health-related conditions.

      • Epidemiology, which identifies and quantifies trends (prevalence, incidence, and risk ratio).

      • Prevention, which includes programs that inform and educate the population at risk.


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    References

    • “Public Health Measurement and Research Design” PowerPoint presentation by Alison Nair, CDC Ambassador Program, June 2004.

    • Oleckno, W.A. Essential Epidemiology: Principles and Applications. Waveland Press, Inc., Long Grove, Illinois, 2002.


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