Cdfg sjr fall run chinook salmon model cwemf november 4 2005
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CDFG SJR Fall-run Chinook Salmon Model CWEMF November 4, 2005 PowerPoint PPT Presentation


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CDFG SJR Fall-run Chinook Salmon Model CWEMF November 4, 2005. Objectives. Brief Overview of Model Development Describe Model Structure Describe Model Calibration/Validation Describe Model Scenarios. Overview. San Joaquin River Salmon Production as a function of Spring Vernalis Flow.

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CDFG SJR Fall-run Chinook Salmon Model CWEMF November 4, 2005

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Cdfg sjr fall run chinook salmon model cwemf november 4 2005

CDFGSJR Fall-run Chinook Salmon ModelCWEMF November 4, 2005


Objectives

Objectives

  • Brief Overview of Model Development

  • Describe Model Structure

  • Describe Model Calibration/Validation

  • Describe Model Scenarios


Overview

Overview

San Joaquin River Salmon Production as a function of Spring Vernalis Flow


Study area

Study Area

Courtesy of USFWS


Salmon life history

Salmon Life History


Salmon cohort singe year production indicator

Salmon Cohort“Singe Year Production Indicator”

Brood Year Production Juvenile

Age 1

Age 5

Age 2

Age 4

Age 3

CWT Recovery

Scale Analysis


Salmon escapement multi year production indicator

Salmon Escapement“Multi-Year Production Indicator”

Age 1

Year 1

Annual Carcass “Creamer” Survey

Age 2

Year 2

Age 3

Year 3

Age 4

Year 4

Age 5

Year 5


1995 wqcp triennial review

1995 WQCP Triennial Review

  • CDFG Challenge:

    • Are the Flow Objectives Working?

      • What is the status of the salmon population?

      • What fraction of juvenile salmon are receiving protection?

      • What is the status of the VAMP experiment?


Populations are declining

1983-1995 Average 42,285

1996-2004 Average 35,004

SJ Basin Production

Year

Populations Are Declining


Level of protection

Level of Protection


Vamp implementation

VAMP Implementation

  • VAMP:

    • Lock Down Uncertainty at Extremes First

    • Since 2000:

  • Result:

    • Continued uncertainty

    • Need several successive high flow range tests to define/solidify relationship


  • More flow more salmon

    More Flow = More Salmon


    2005 swrcb 95 wqcp review

    2005 SWRCB ’95 WQCP Review

    • CDFG:

      • presented its concerns

      • asked for peer review

  • SWRCB:

    • peer reviewed already occurred

    • CDFG: develop flow recommendations


  • Chalkboard

    Chalkboard

    E = mc?

    What +/- What = More Salmon?

    Harvest?

    Exports?

    Disease?

    Predation?

    Flow?

    Gravel?


    Model logic

    Model Logic

    • Delta Exports

      • weak correlation to cohort production


    Model logic1

    Model Logic

    • Ocean Harvest

      • weak correlation to cohort production

    Harvest - Sacramento, San Joaquin and CVI

    Ocean Harvest versus Tuolumne Escapement


    Model logic2

    Mossdale Smolts

    Previous Year Escapement

    Model Logic

    • Adult Stock Density Limitations

    Ricker Stock-recruit relationship (density dependent mortality governor) appears questionable

    More females = more juveniles (Tuolumne River)


    Adult stock density limitations

    Adult Stock Density Limitations

    Density Dependent Governor ?

    Higher Escapement

    Higher Spring Flow

    Higher Cohort Production

    Higher Escapement

    Lower Spring Flow

    Lower Cohort Production

    Multiple Regression

    1973-1999

    R-square = 0.75

    P = .001

    Tuolumne River data


    Model logic3

    Model Logic

    • Instream Flow

    Strong correlation to cohort production in relation to spring flow

    SJB east-side tributaries principle flow & salmon contributor


    Flow features

    Flow Features

    • Increased Vernalis Flow Magnitude/Duration/Frequency all projected increased adult salmon production


    Now what

    Now What?

    • Challenge: “How to link salmon life history production to flow magnitude & duration?”

    • Solution: “Develop a tool”


    Model concept

    Model Concept

    • Flow primary driving factor in population (not harvest, exports or adult stock density)

    • Quantify relationships between:

      • flow and juvenile production

      • flow and juvenile survival

      • juvenile survival and adult escapement

    • Simulate production over time


    Eureka the light bulbs went on

    Eureka! The Light Bulbs Went On!


    Model features

    Model Features

    • Excel spreadsheet platform

    • Links life history stages by numerical production at each phase

    • Predicts adult escapement (1967-2000)

    • Flow duration & magnitude variable

    • Predicts escapement change & water volume

    • Has 95% confidence level predictions

    • Customizable input parameters


    Model refinements

    Model Refinements

    • Limits predictions to data set

    • Uses San Joaquin Basin data for age cohort reconstruction

    • Smolt Outmigration pattern WY Type specific

    • Allows for HORB/non-HORB smolt survival

    • 95% confidence levels predictions


    Conceptual model

    Conceptual Model

    Vernalis Flow

    Mossdale Smolts

    Delta Survival

    Adult Cohort

    Annual Escapement (spawners)

    Chipps Smolts

    Escapement Reconstruction


    Vernalis flow mossdale smolts

    Vernalis Flow - Mossdale Smolts


    Outmigration pattern

    Outmigration Pattern


    Conceptual model1

    Conceptual Model

    Vernalis Flow

    Mossdale Smolts

    Delta Survival

    Adult Cohort

    Annual Escapement (spawners)

    Chipps Smolts

    Escapement Reconstruction


    Delta survival

    Delta Survival


    Conceptual model2

    Conceptual Model

    Vernalis Flow

    Mossdale Smolts

    Delta Survival

    Adult Cohort

    Annual Escapement (spawners)

    Chipps Smolts

    Escapement Reconstruction


    Adults versus outmigrants

    Adults versus Outmigrants


    Reconstruct adult escapement

    Reconstruct Adult Escapement


    Sjr scale vs cv cwt

    SJR Scale vs CV CWT


    Repeat cycle

    Repeat Cycle

    Combine spawners with Vernalis flow to predict Mossdale Smolt Production

    Vernalis Flow

    Mossdale Smolts

    Delta Survival

    Adult Cohort

    Annual Escapement (spawners)

    Chipps Smolts

    Escapement Reconstruction


    Model calibration validation

    Model Calibration & Validation

    • Two Approaches

      • Calibrate with subset/validate with remaining

      • Calibrate with entire data set

  • Parameters

    • Escapement pattern

    • Time period average

    • Replacement ratio

    • Stay within 95% CI


  • Sj basin escapement 1967 2000

    SJ Basin Escapement 1967-2000

    -----Historic -----Modeled


    95 confidence intervals

    95% Confidence Intervals

    HistoricUpper 95% CILower 95% CI


    Model scenarios

    Model Scenarios

    • Ten model runs

    • Four presented


    What scenarios

    What Scenarios

    • Possible Goal Attainment Scenarios

      • Vary Flow with Window Constant

        • VAMP (3200-7000 with 31 day window)

      • Constant Flow & Window Constant

        • 10,000 all WY Types & 31 day window

      • Constant Flow & Variable Window

        • 10,000 all WY Types & Variable WY Window

      • Variable Flow & Variable Window

        • 5-20K Flow & 31-90 day Window


    10 chosen

    10 Chosen


    Existing flow magnitude

    Existing Flow Magnitude


    D 1641 flows no horb

    D-1641 Flows (No HORB)


    D 1641 flows with horb

    D-1641 Flows (With HORB)


    Constant flow

    Constant Flow


    Constant flow1

    Constant Flow


    Flow varies by water year type

    Flow Varies by Water Year Type


    Flow varies by water year type1

    Flow varies by Water Year Type


    Variable flow and duration

    Variable Flow and Duration


    Variable flow and duration1

    Variable Flow and Duration


    Conclusion

    Conclusion

    Stanislaus River

    San Joaquin River


    What now

    What Now?

    • Model Documentation

    • Release Model/Report

    • Model Refinements

    • Peer Review

      • Develop questions


    Peer review questions

    Peer Review Questions

    • What is the best way to test model results?

    • Is there a better population health barometer than “replacement ratio and escapement”?

    • What is the influence of cascading confidence intervals?

    • Other Questions?


    Input questions

    Input & Questions

    • Provide comments and questions to: [email protected]


    Cdfg sjr fall run chinook salmon model cwemf november 4 2005

    Q & A


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