Cdfg sjr fall run chinook salmon model cwemf november 4 2005
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CDFG SJR Fall-run Chinook Salmon Model CWEMF November 4, 2005. Objectives. Brief Overview of Model Development Describe Model Structure Describe Model Calibration/Validation Describe Model Scenarios. Overview. San Joaquin River Salmon Production as a function of Spring Vernalis Flow.

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Cdfg sjr fall run chinook salmon model cwemf november 4 2005
CDFGSJR Fall-run Chinook Salmon ModelCWEMF November 4, 2005


Objectives
Objectives

  • Brief Overview of Model Development

  • Describe Model Structure

  • Describe Model Calibration/Validation

  • Describe Model Scenarios


Overview
Overview

San Joaquin River Salmon Production as a function of Spring Vernalis Flow


Study area
Study Area

Courtesy of USFWS



Salmon cohort singe year production indicator
Salmon Cohort“Singe Year Production Indicator”

Brood Year Production Juvenile

Age 1

Age 5

Age 2

Age 4

Age 3

CWT Recovery

Scale Analysis


Salmon escapement multi year production indicator
Salmon Escapement“Multi-Year Production Indicator”

Age 1

Year 1

Annual Carcass “Creamer” Survey

Age 2

Year 2

Age 3

Year 3

Age 4

Year 4

Age 5

Year 5


1995 wqcp triennial review
1995 WQCP Triennial Review

  • CDFG Challenge:

    • Are the Flow Objectives Working?

      • What is the status of the salmon population?

      • What fraction of juvenile salmon are receiving protection?

      • What is the status of the VAMP experiment?


Populations are declining

1983-1995 Average 42,285

1996-2004 Average 35,004

SJ Basin Production

Year

Populations Are Declining



Vamp implementation
VAMP Implementation

  • VAMP:

    • Lock Down Uncertainty at Extremes First

    • Since 2000:

  • Result:

    • Continued uncertainty

    • Need several successive high flow range tests to define/solidify relationship



  • 2005 swrcb 95 wqcp review
    2005 SWRCB ’95 WQCP Review

    • CDFG:

      • presented its concerns

      • asked for peer review

  • SWRCB:

    • peer reviewed already occurred

    • CDFG: develop flow recommendations


  • Chalkboard
    Chalkboard

    E = mc?

    What +/- What = More Salmon?

    Harvest?

    Exports?

    Disease?

    Predation?

    Flow?

    Gravel?


    Model logic
    Model Logic

    • Delta Exports

      • weak correlation to cohort production


    Model logic1
    Model Logic

    • Ocean Harvest

      • weak correlation to cohort production

    Harvest - Sacramento, San Joaquin and CVI

    Ocean Harvest versus Tuolumne Escapement


    Model logic2

    Mossdale Smolts

    Previous Year Escapement

    Model Logic

    • Adult Stock Density Limitations

    Ricker Stock-recruit relationship (density dependent mortality governor) appears questionable

    More females = more juveniles (Tuolumne River)


    Adult stock density limitations
    Adult Stock Density Limitations

    Density Dependent Governor ?

    Higher Escapement

    Higher Spring Flow

    Higher Cohort Production

    Higher Escapement

    Lower Spring Flow

    Lower Cohort Production

    Multiple Regression

    1973-1999

    R-square = 0.75

    P = .001

    Tuolumne River data


    Model logic3
    Model Logic

    • Instream Flow

    Strong correlation to cohort production in relation to spring flow

    SJB east-side tributaries principle flow & salmon contributor


    Flow features
    Flow Features

    • Increased Vernalis Flow Magnitude/Duration/Frequency all projected increased adult salmon production


    Now what
    Now What?

    • Challenge: “How to link salmon life history production to flow magnitude & duration?”

    • Solution: “Develop a tool”


    Model concept
    Model Concept

    • Flow primary driving factor in population (not harvest, exports or adult stock density)

    • Quantify relationships between:

      • flow and juvenile production

      • flow and juvenile survival

      • juvenile survival and adult escapement

    • Simulate production over time



    Model features
    Model Features

    • Excel spreadsheet platform

    • Links life history stages by numerical production at each phase

    • Predicts adult escapement (1967-2000)

    • Flow duration & magnitude variable

    • Predicts escapement change & water volume

    • Has 95% confidence level predictions

    • Customizable input parameters


    Model refinements
    Model Refinements

    • Limits predictions to data set

    • Uses San Joaquin Basin data for age cohort reconstruction

    • Smolt Outmigration pattern WY Type specific

    • Allows for HORB/non-HORB smolt survival

    • 95% confidence levels predictions


    Conceptual model
    Conceptual Model

    Vernalis Flow

    Mossdale Smolts

    Delta Survival

    Adult Cohort

    Annual Escapement (spawners)

    Chipps Smolts

    Escapement Reconstruction




    Conceptual model1
    Conceptual Model

    Vernalis Flow

    Mossdale Smolts

    Delta Survival

    Adult Cohort

    Annual Escapement (spawners)

    Chipps Smolts

    Escapement Reconstruction



    Conceptual model2
    Conceptual Model

    Vernalis Flow

    Mossdale Smolts

    Delta Survival

    Adult Cohort

    Annual Escapement (spawners)

    Chipps Smolts

    Escapement Reconstruction





    Repeat cycle
    Repeat Cycle

    Combine spawners with Vernalis flow to predict Mossdale Smolt Production

    Vernalis Flow

    Mossdale Smolts

    Delta Survival

    Adult Cohort

    Annual Escapement (spawners)

    Chipps Smolts

    Escapement Reconstruction


    Model calibration validation
    Model Calibration & Validation

    • Two Approaches

      • Calibrate with subset/validate with remaining

      • Calibrate with entire data set

  • Parameters

    • Escapement pattern

    • Time period average

    • Replacement ratio

    • Stay within 95% CI


  • Sj basin escapement 1967 2000
    SJ Basin Escapement 1967-2000

    -----Historic -----Modeled


    95 confidence intervals
    95% Confidence Intervals

    HistoricUpper 95% CILower 95% CI


    Model scenarios
    Model Scenarios

    • Ten model runs

    • Four presented


    What scenarios
    What Scenarios

    • Possible Goal Attainment Scenarios

      • Vary Flow with Window Constant

        • VAMP (3200-7000 with 31 day window)

      • Constant Flow & Window Constant

        • 10,000 all WY Types & 31 day window

      • Constant Flow & Variable Window

        • 10,000 all WY Types & Variable WY Window

      • Variable Flow & Variable Window

        • 5-20K Flow & 31-90 day Window












    Conclusion
    Conclusion

    Stanislaus River

    San Joaquin River


    What now
    What Now?

    • Model Documentation

    • Release Model/Report

    • Model Refinements

    • Peer Review

      • Develop questions


    Peer review questions
    Peer Review Questions

    • What is the best way to test model results?

    • Is there a better population health barometer than “replacement ratio and escapement”?

    • What is the influence of cascading confidence intervals?

    • Other Questions?


    Input questions
    Input & Questions

    • Provide comments and questions to: dmarston@dfg.ca.gov



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