CDFG SJR Fall-run Chinook Salmon Model CWEMF November 4, 2005. Objectives. Brief Overview of Model Development Describe Model Structure Describe Model Calibration/Validation Describe Model Scenarios. Overview. San Joaquin River Salmon Production as a function of Spring Vernalis Flow.
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San Joaquin River Salmon Production as a function of Spring Vernalis Flow
Courtesy of USFWS
Brood Year Production Juvenile
Annual Carcass “Creamer” Survey
1996-2004 Average 35,004
SJ Basin Production
YearPopulations Are Declining
E = mc?
What +/- What = More Salmon?
Harvest - Sacramento, San Joaquin and CVI
Ocean Harvest versus Tuolumne Escapement
Previous Year EscapementModel Logic
Ricker Stock-recruit relationship (density dependent mortality governor) appears questionable
More females = more juveniles (Tuolumne River)
Density Dependent Governor ?
Higher Spring Flow
Higher Cohort Production
Lower Spring Flow
Lower Cohort Production
R-square = 0.75
P = .001
Tuolumne River data
Strong correlation to cohort production in relation to spring flow
SJB east-side tributaries principle flow & salmon contributor
Combine spawners with Vernalis flow to predict Mossdale Smolt Production
Annual Escapement (spawners)
HistoricUpper 95% CILower 95% CI
San Joaquin River