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Physics/Global Studies 280 Module 5: Programs and Arsenals. Part 1: Overview of Programs and Arsenals Part 2: Arsenals of the NPT “Nuclear Weapon States”: The United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, and China

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Physics/Global Studies 280 Module 5: Programs and Arsenals

  • Part 1: Overview of Programs and Arsenals

  • Part 2: Arsenals of the NPT “Nuclear Weapon States”: The United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, and China

  • Part 3: Arsenals of non-NPT “Nuclear Weapon States”: India, Pakistan, and Israel

  • Part 4: Emerging Nuclear States: North Korea and Iran


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Module 5: Programs and Arsenals

  • Part 1: Overview of Programs and Arsenals


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Overview of Programs and Arsenals

  • Status of Nuclear Weapon Programs



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Is there a global missile threat?

1000 km

Range

5500 km


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Reduction in Missile Numbers

Cirrincione, Deadly Arsenals, 2002.


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Missile Ranges

Cirrincione, Deadly Arsenals, 2002.


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Factors of Threat Perception

Regional

& global

Security

Disarmament

Non-proliferation

Arms control

Threat

Perception

Motivation

Capability

Conflict

dynamics

Scenarios

Military-technical-

economic factors


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The Missile Threat: a Survey Among Students

  • Questionnaireto students of three courses at the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign:

  • A. Energy Systems (NPRE201): 22 students (Dec. 2004)

  • B. Introduction International Studies (LAS199): 15 students (Dec. 2004)

  • C. Nuclear Weapons & Arms Control (PHYS280): 38 students (March 2005)

  • Questions:

    1. How big is the capability that this country will attack other countries with ballistic missiles in the coming 5 years?

    2. How big is the motivation that this country will attack other countries with ballistic missiles in the coming 5 years?

    Evaluation: 1 very low, 10 very high for 12 countries

    (Argentina, China, Germany, India, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Japan, North Korea, Pakistan, Russia, USA)




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10

9

NKOR

8

NKOR

ISR

USA

NKOR

7

PAK

IRAN

PAK

USA

IRAN

IRAN

ISR

6

IRAQ

IND

IND

Motivation

PAK

IRAQ

USA

5

IND

CHI

IRAQ

CHI

CHI

RUS

4

RUS

RUS

JAP

JAP

ISR

JAP

3

GER

GER

2

Series1

ARG

ARG

Series2

GER

Series3

ARG

1

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Capability

Averages Classes A, B, C

Combined Averages


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Module 5: Programs and Arsenals

  • Part 2: Arsenals of the NPT “Nuclear Weapon States”

  • The United States, Russia, the United Kingdom,France, and China


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US and SU-Russian Nuclear Launchers

Source: NRDC (Nov. 2002)


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US and SU-Russian Nuclear Warheads

Source: NRDC (Nov. 2002)


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US and SU-Russian Nuclear Stockpiles

Source: NRDC (Nov. 2002)


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U.S. Nuclear Warheads – 1

Source: NRDC (Nov. 2002)


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U.S. Nuclear Warheads – 2

Source: NRDC (Nov. 2002)


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U.S. Strategic Nuclear Warheads – 1

Source: NRDC (Nov. 2002)


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U.S. Strategic Nuclear Warheads – 2

Source: NRDC (Nov. 2002)


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U.S. Strategic Nuclear Forces – 1

10

100

Source: NRDC (Nov. 2002)

510

1,150

NRDC (Jan/Feb 2005)


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U.S. Strategic Nuclear Forces – 2

48

288

336/14

Source: NRDC (Nov. 2002)

NRDC (Jan/Feb 2005)


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U.S. Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons

Source: NRDC (Nov. 2002)


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Summary of U.S. Nuclear Forces

NRDC (Jan/Feb 2005)


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SU-Russian Nuclear Warheads – 1

Source: NRDC (Nov. 2002)


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SU-Russian Nuclear Warheads – 2

Source: NRDC (Nov. 2002)


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Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces – 1

Source: NRDC (Nov. 2002)


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Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces – 2

Source: NRDC (Nov. 2002)


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Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces – 3

Source: NRDC (Nov. 2002)


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Russian Non-Strategic Nuclear Forces

Source: NRDC (Nov. 2002)


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Summary of Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces

NRDC, March/April. 2005

Source: Nuclear Notebook, Russian nuclear forces 2005


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Projected strategic warheads, 2005-2015

2005

2010

2012

2015

ICBMs

2,270

750

762

580

SLBMs

672

720

528

576

Bombers

872

866

866

866

Total

3,814

2,336

2,156

2,022

Russian Projected Strategic Warheads

NRDC, March/April. 2005


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U.K. Strategic Nuclear Forces

Source: NRDC (Nov. 2002)


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French Strategic Nuclear Forces

Source: NRDC (Nov. 2002)




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China’s Nuclear Infrastructure


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Comparison of Nuclear-Weapon-States

NRDC, Sept./Oct. 2003.


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Module 5: Programs and Arsenals

  • Part 3: Arsenals of non-NPT “Nuclear Weapon States”

  • India, Pakistan, and Israel


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India’s Nuclear and Missile Programs – 1

  • India’s nuclear weapon capability —

    • Estimated to have produced 225–370 kg of weapons-grade plutonium

    • Estimated to have produced a smaller, but publicly unknown, quantity of weapons-grade uranium

    • This quantity of plutonium is thought to be enough for India to produce 50–90 nuclear weapons

    • The NRDC estimates that India has 30–35 warheads

    • India is thought to have the components to deploy a small number of nuclear weapons within days

    • No nuclear weapons are known to be deployed among active military units or deployed on missiles


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India’s Nuclear and Missile Programs – 2

  • India’s nuclear delivery capability —

    • India has developed several types of ballistic missiles capable of carrying and delivering a nuclear payload

    • Three versions of the short-range, liquid-propellant, road-mobile Prithvi have been developed —

      • Army (range = 150 km, payload = 500 kg)

      • Air Force (range = 250 km, payload = 500–750 kg)

      • Navy (range = 350 km, payload = 500 kg)

    • India has also developed and in 1999 successfully tested the medium-range Agni II, with a declared range of 2,000–2,500 km

    • However, fighter-bombers are thought to be the only delivery system that could be used before 2010


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Summary of India’s NuclearDelivery Systems

Source: NRDC (Nov. 2002)


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Pakistan’s Nuclear and Missile Programs – 1

  • Pakistan’s nuclear weapon capability —

    • Is estimated to have produced 585–800 kg of highly enriched uranium

    • May possess enough weapons-grade uranium to produce 30–50 nuclear weapons

    • May possess enough weapons-grade plutonium to produce 3–5 nuclear weapons

    • Nuclear weapons are thought to be stored in component form, with the fissile core stored separately from the non-nuclear explosives

    • Thought to possess enough components and material to assemble a small number of nuclear weapons in a matter of hours or days


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Pakistan’s Nuclear and Missile Programs – 2

  • Pakistan’s nuclear delivery capability —

    • Thought to have about 30 nuclear-capable short-range Chinese M-11 surface-to-surface missiles, which have a range of 280–300 km

    • Announced deployment of the Shaheen I in 2001

    • Tested Ghauri I (range > 1,300 km, payload = 700 kg)

    • Tested Ghauri II (range = 2,000 km, payload = 850 kg)

    • Displayed but never tested the 2,000-km Shaheen II

    • Primary nuclear capable aircraft is the F-16, which can deliver a 1,000-kg bomb to a distance of 1,400 km




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Israel’s Nuclear and Missile Programs – 1 Systems

  • Israel’s nuclear weapon capability —

    • Is estimated to have produced ~ 400–700 kg of weapons-grade plutonium

    • Is thought to have enough plutonium to fabricate ~ 100–200 nuclear weapons

    • Is thought to have ~ 100 fission weapons (but some sources disagree, claiming much more capability, including modern thermonuclear weapons)

    • Is thought to have completed its first nuclear device by late 1966 or early 1967

    • Is reported to have hurriedly assembled deliverable devices just before the 1967 six-day war.


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Israel’s Nuclear and Missile Programs – 2 Systems

  • Israel’s nuclear delivery capability —

    • Developed the short-range, solid-propellant Jericho I (range = 500 km, payload = 500 kg) with the French and deployed it in 1973

    • In 1990 deployed the medium-range, solid-propellant Jericho II (range = 1,500 km, payload = 1,000 kg), now has ~ 100

    • Both missiles are land- and rail-mobile

    • Israel could also deliver nuclear weapons using its U.S.-supplied F-4E and F-16 aircraft

    • Israel could also deliver nuclear weapons using its cruise missiles (the U.S.-supplied Harpoon, range = 120 km, payload = 220 kg, or a new 1,200-km missile)


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Summary of Israel’s Nuclear Delivery Systems Systems

Source: Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (Sept./Oct. 2002)


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Israel’s Nuclear SystemsWeapons Complex

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Deadly Arsenals (2002), www.ceip.org


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Module 5: Programs and Arsenals Systems

  • Part 4: Emerging Nuclear States

  • North Korea and Iran


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North Korea’s Nuclear Capabilities – 1 Systems

  • North Korea’s nuclear weapon capability —

    • Is estimated to have produced ~ 25–30 kg of plutonium in the reactor at Yongbyon

    • Has stated it is separating plutonium to make weapons-grade material

    • Has announced it has a uranium-separation facility using centrifuges built with help from Pakistan

    • Is thought to have begun separating uranium in 2001

    • Future production rate could be 40–100 kg per year


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North Korea’s Nuclear Capabilities – 2 Systems

Source: NRDC (April 2003)


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North Korea’s Ballistic Missiles Systems

Source: NRDC (April 2003)





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Iran’s Nuclear and Missile Programs – 1 Systems

  • Iran’s nuclear weapon capability —

    • Iran has the basic nuclear technology and infrastructure needed to build nuclear weapons

    • The intelligence services of the Germany, Israel, the United Kingdom, and the United States have publicly confirmed that it has a long-term program to manufacture nuclear weapons

    • It is thought that Iran has not yet made a nuclear weapon (in February 2003, the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency estimated that Iran could have a nuclear weapon by 2010)

    • Iran’s rate of progress in developing nuclear weapons will depend strongly on what assistance it receives from Russia and China and whether it can illicitly acquire the needed special nuclear material


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Iran’s Nuclear and Missile Programs – 2 Systems

  • Evidence has recently emerged that Iran has greatly accelerated its nuclear program —

    • It has nearly completed a large gas-centrifuge uranium enrichment facility at Natanz

    • 164 centrifuges are now operating in a cascade there

    • Parts are on hand to build about 1,000 more

    • No nuclear material was in the centrifuges at Natanz when the IAEA visited

    • The IAEA believes Iran probably introduced nuclear material into centrifuges at another location in order to test them, which would be a violation of the NPT


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Iran’s Nuclear and Missile Programs – 3 Systems

  • Iran has announced a change in its nuclear program —

    • Iranian President Mohammad Khatami recently announced that Iran has started mining uranium and is developing the facilities for a complete nuclear fuel cycle

    • On March 3, 2003, Hassan Rowhani, the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, announced that a plant near Isfahan designed to convert uranium oxide to uranium hexafluoride was now complete

    • Iran is dragging its feet on more rigorous IAEA inspections

    • Russia is constructing a nuclear reactor at Bushehr that will provide dual-use technology that Iran does not now have


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Iran’s Nuclear and Missile Programs – 4 Systems

  • Iran’s nuclear delivery capability —

    • Has about 300 Scud-B short-range missiles (range = 300 km, payload =1,000 kg)

    • Has about 100 Scud-C short-range missiles (range = 500 km)

    • With North Korean assistance, Iran is manufacturing Scuds

    • Has 200 Chinese-supplied CSS-8 short-range missiles (range = 150 km, payload = 150 kg)

    • Has tested the medium-range Shahab III, a derivative of the North Korean No Dong (range = 1,300 km, payload = 750 kg)

    • Is developing the Shahab IV (range = 2,000 km, payload = 1,000 kg)


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Arak Systems

Natanz

Modified from: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Deadly Arsenals (2002), www.ceip.org (red names added)

Iran’s Nuclear Complex



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