Field Project 3: Surveillance and control of Rift Valley Fever in the Greater Horn of Africa and the Middle East - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Field Project 3: Surveillance and control of Rift Valley Fever in the Greater Horn of Africa and the Middle East. www.tomuphoto.com/gallery/ Landscapes/rift_valley. What is Rift Valley Fever?. Febrile disease that affects sheep, cattle, goats, humans, primates, camels Vector:

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Field Project 3: Surveillance and control of Rift Valley Fever in the Greater Horn of Africa and the Middle East

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Field Project 3:

Surveillance and control of Rift Valley Fever in the Greater Horn of Africa and the Middle East

www.tomuphoto.com/gallery/ Landscapes/rift_valley


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What is Rift Valley Fever?

  • Febrile disease that affects sheep, cattle, goats, humans, primates, camels

  • Vector:

  • Most human cases are mild and involve: fever, myaglia, vomiting, diarrhea, and/or hepatitis

  • Can become severe in small # of human cases:

    • Eye disease: 0.5-2%

    • Meningoencephalitis <1%

    • Hemorrhagic fever <1%

Aedes (Neomelaniconion) and Aedes (Stegomyia), Culex, Mansonia, Anopheles and Eretmapodites, have all been shown to transmit the virus.

Photo: news.bbc.co.uk/.../ newsid_934000/934032.stm


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RVF Epizootics

  • Humans infected from:

    • Mosquitoes

    • Contact with blood/body fluids/organs of infected animals

  • First isolated in 1930 among sheep on a farm in the Rift Valley of Kenya

  • Recent Outbreaks

    • Egypt 1993, 1997

    • Kenya, Somalia 1997-98

  • First cases outside African Continent not until 2000 in Saudi Arabia & Yemen


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Economic Impacts of RVF

x

Pastoralists in the Horn of Africa

Markets in the Arabian Peninsula

BOYCOTT

Photos, clockwise from top left:

www.uni-mainz.de, www.asergeev.com, www.fao.org

Sheep infected with RVF


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RVF Management: Group Decision Problem

  • Monitoring and forecasting system depends on cooperation between producers and consumers

  • If benefits of monitoring/forecasting are not spread across each group, essential players may not want to participate

  • Groups span across production, export, consumption, continents, religions, nationalities, and ethnicities.


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How to overcome trade constraints?

Development of a model that could:

  • Identify areas that are RVF enzootic with epizootic potential

  • Identify periods of high risk of RVF

  • Determine lead time in which high risk areas & periods can be identified

  • Establish linkages between model outputs & decision-making options at multiple levels


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Developing a Monitoring & Forecasting System

  • Identify areas that are RVF enzootic with epizootic potential

    • Using historical data from Kenya, assemble a set of environmental layers to identify the areas where RVF is enzootic with epizootic potential

    • Apply them to the entire Horn of Africa & Middle East

(Completed)

(In progress)


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Developing a Monitoring & Forecasting System

  • Identify periods of high risk of RVF (almost completed)

  • Determine lead time in which high risk areas & periods can be identified

    • Identify threshold values of rainfall, soil moisture, vegetation greenness, & inundation associated with historical outbreaks

    • Assess ability to predict exceedance of these thresholds at different times using global climate models

(In progress)

(In progress)


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Developing a Monitoring & Forecasting System

4.Establish linkages between model outputs & decision-making options at multiple levels

  • Barriers to group cooperation must be identified, understood, and addressed in development of the system if cooperation is important

  • It may be necessary to design group cooperation mechanisms into reporting components of the monitoring and forecasting system


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Reputation and Vulnerability

  • Reporting information on RVF outbreaks may hurt a producer’s credibility and reputation

  • A reputation of being a producer with high risk for RVF may make a vulnerable producer more vulnerable

  • Are there ways to address these problems?


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RVF & DecisionMaking

Potential areas to explore:

  • Incentives for voluntary monitoring

  • Sharing risk through sales contracts

  • Compensation schemes producers who provide sensitive information

  • Designing systems that take advantage of inter/intra group credibility effects

  • Incentives for vaccination of animals

  • Temporary restriction of trade from affected areas


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Mechanism Design

  • Buyers in Middle East could compensate pastoralists for reporting sick sheep, making monitoring and auditing costs less prohibitive

Questions:

  • Would buyers blacklist pastoralists because they shared information about the presence of the virus, can a contract be designed to overcome this?

  • Do pastoralists report differently: as individuals, as groups, across ethnic groups?


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Groups and Contract Design

  • When making contracts, does the cost of revealing private information differ between individuals and groups?

    • We will build on existing research by developing tools to explore:

  • What constitutes a group and what are the premiums that group dynamics bring?

    • Experimental game in lab (Summer 2005) & possibly at conference in the field


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QUESTIONS?

Photo: www.freshtracks.ca/group_incentive.shtml


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