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The Adequacy of the U.S. S&E Workforce: A QUANTITATIVE PERSPECTIVE. John Sargent Senior Policy Analyst U.S. Department of Commerce. Alarm Bells…. “… the nation may likely face severe shortages in SET workers…”

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The adequacy of the u s s e workforce a quantitative perspective l.jpg

The Adequacy of the U.S. S&E Workforce:A QUANTITATIVE PERSPECTIVE

John Sargent

Senior Policy Analyst

U.S. Department of Commerce


Alarm bells l.jpg
Alarm Bells…

  • “… the nation may likely face severe shortages in SET workers…”

    –Land of Plenty, Commission on the Advancement of Women and Minorities in Science, Engineering, and Technology Development (CAWMSET)

  • “There is a quiet crisis building in the United States [that] stems from the gap between the nation’s growing need for scientists, engineers, and other technically skilled workers, and its production of them.”

    – The Quiet Crisis: Falling Short in Producing American Scientific and Technical Talent, Building Engineering and Science Talent (BEST)

  • “… U.S. need for the highest quality human capital in science, mathematics and engineering is not being met.”

    – Hart-Rudman Commission

  • "Our 1998 study found a shortage of 346,000 programmers, systems analysts and computer scientists."

    – ITAA president Harris Miller

  • "We are not training enough American scientists and engineers to retain our prosperity ...."

    – American Scientist magazine, 2001

  • “a serious deficit of scientists and engineers” resulting in “an evaporating dominance.”

    – Dan Goldin, former NASA administrator, 2001



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Recent Occupational GrowthGrowth in Numbers





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Distribution of Projected S&E Job Openings(new jobs plus net replacements)2000-2010


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S&E Bachelor’s Degrees

Life Sciences Up...

...Engineering, Physical Sciences, and Math Down


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Engineering Bachelor’s Degrees…Half Empty or Half Full?

…or a 53 percent increase since 1976?

A 23 percent decline

since 1985…



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The Market PerspectiveDegree Production vs. Projected Job Openings


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EngineeringDegrees & Projected Job Openings


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Physical SciencesDegrees & Projected Job Openings


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Mathematics and Computer ScienceDegrees & Projected Job Openings


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Biological and Agricultural SciencesDegrees & Projected Job Openings


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IT Education & Training LandscapeHow IT Workers Get and Maintain their Skills

  • IT Bachelor’s Degrees

  • IT-Related Minors

  • Combined IT Bachelors/Masters Degree Programs

  • IT-Related Masters of Science Programs

  • Techno MBAs

  • Two-Year IT Degrees at Community Colleges

  • IT Certificate Programs

  • Private, For-Profit Education and Training Institutions

  • Vendor and Vendor-neutral IT Certification

  • Federal, State and Regional IT Training Initiatives

  • Boot Camps and Seminars

  • Employer Programs

  • On-Line, CD-ROM, Books

  • The Churn


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Professional-level IT Workers’ Educational Preparation Largely in the Sciences, Engineering


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Possible Niche Areas of Need Largely in the Sciences, Engineering

  • Federal S&E Employees: Unique Challenges

  • Industries Affected by Past/Current Federal Demand

  • University Professors in High Demand Disciplines

  • Emerging Disciplines

  • Converging Disciplines

  • Industries with Past Workforce Shocks


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Aerospace Engineering Largely in the Sciences, Engineering Education Rollercoaster


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Challenge to the Community: Largely in the Sciences, EngineeringAnalysis

  • Conduct In-Depth Quantitative, Qualitative Analysis

  • Separate Niche, Broad Demand

  • Identify Unique Challenges

    • Industrial

    • Regional

    • Occupational

    • Level of Education


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Challenge to the Community: Largely in the Sciences, EngineeringAction

  • Math and Science Education in K-12

  • Image of Scientists and Engineers

  • S&E Career Awareness in Middle, High School

  • Industry Feedback to Post-Secondary Institutions

  • Post-Secondary Institutions’ Responsiveness to Market Demands

  • Industry Must Help Itself


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Challenges to Largely in the Sciences, EngineeringGrowing Domestic S&E Workforce

  • Cost-Benefit of Grad Education in S&E vs. Law, Business


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Challenges to Largely in the Sciences, EngineeringGrowing Domestic S&E Workforce

  • Cost-Benefit of Grad Education in S&E vs. Law, Business


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Challenges to Largely in the Sciences, EngineeringGrowing Domestic S&E Workforce

  • Cost-Benefit of Grad Education in S&E vs. Law, Business

  • Attractiveness of Careers in S&E vs. Law, Business

  • Strong Emphasis by Other Nations, Cultures on S&E Education

  • Access to Foreign Labor in the U.S. (H-1B, L1)

  • Access to Foreign Labor Abroad (Offshoring—direct and through contract)

    • Significantly lower salary costs

    • Pools of well-educated S&E talent

    • Improved national infrastructure, political stability

  • Large Government, Industry Focus on Health R&D


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Factors Supporting U.S. Ability to Largely in the Sciences, EngineeringGrow Domestic S&E Workforce

  • Premier Academic Research Institutions

  • Elite Students Among Best in World

  • Powerful Industrial Base, Potential Partners in S&E Education and Training

  • Money Talks!


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Contact Information Largely in the Sciences, Engineering

John F. Sargent

Senior Policy Analyst

Office of Technology Policy, Technology Administration

U.S. Department of Commerce

202-482-6185

[email protected]

www.ta.doc.gov


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Bachelor’s Degrees Awarded, by Gender Largely in the Sciences, Engineering


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U.S. Population Projections: Gender Largely in the Sciences, EngineeringSteady Growth for Males and Females Through 2100


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S&E Bachelor’s Degrees, by Gender Largely in the Sciences, Engineering



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Share of Bachelor’s Degrees in Each Field Comparatively LowEarned by Women, 2000



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S&E Bachelor’s Degrees Bachelor’s DegreesSelection Rates, by Race


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U.S. Population Projections: Numbers By Race, Ethnicity Bachelor’s DegreesSharp Increase in Hispanics; Substantial Increase in Asians; Moderate Increase in Blacks; Whites, American Indians Constant


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U.S. Population Projections: Racial and Ethnic Composition Bachelor’s DegreesSteep Decline in Percentage of Whites; Sharp Increase in Hispanics; Substantial Increase in Asians; Moderate Decline in Blacks; American Indians Constant


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Strong correlation between Federal R&D investments in MEPS and bachelor’s degree production in MEPS fields

Federal R&D, Non-Biomedical

constant (1996)B$

Federal R&D, Non-Biomedical

constant (1996)B$


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IT Applications and bachelor’s degree production in MEPS fields

Computer Chip Design

Help Desk

Software Engineering

Software Design

Programming

IT Hardware Systems Integration

Software Systems Integration

E-commerce

Supply-Chain Management

Data Mining

Offshoring: IT on Leading Edge


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Home Loan Processing and bachelor’s degree production in MEPS fields

Radiology

Insurance Claim Processing

Scientific Information Research

Accounting

Financial Analysis

Engineering Design

Product Design

Employee Benefits

Tax Accounting

Architectural Work

R&D

Airline Reservation and Customer Service

Credit Card/Loan Processing

IT Not Alone


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India and bachelor’s degree production in MEPS fields

China

Russia

Poland

Mexico

Czech Republic

Poland

Philippines

Hungary

Costa Rica

Brazil

Where is the Work Going?


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Factors Driving Interest in Offshoring and bachelor’s degree production in MEPS fields

Globally competitive environment, market financial expectations…

  • Cost

  • Business Climate

    • Less Regulation

    • Fewer Torts

  • Round the Clock Operations

  • Focus on Core Competencies


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U.S. IT Workers and bachelor’s degree production in MEPS fields

$70-$100 per hour

U.S. Programmers

$1,600-$3,600 per mo.

U.S. Project Managers

$3,600-$7,100 per mo.

U.S. Architects

$65 per hour

U.S. Engineers

$90,000 per year

IT Workers in India

$20 per hour

Programmers in the Philippines

$250-$700 per mo.

Project Managers in the Philippines

$700-$1,150 per mo.

Architects in Hungary

$18 per hour

Engineers in the Philippines

$13,000 per year

Media-reported Salary Comparisons

Here…AND…There


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