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2008 Real Estate Forum - Residential Market – Kootenai County

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2008 Real Estate Forum - Residential Market – Kootenai County . KOOTENAI COUNTY HOUSING MARKET IN 2007. Back to the Future. The Rise and Fall of the Housing Market. It’s A Long Flight to the Train Station. BACK TO THE FUTURE –. Residential History: 2001-. 2003

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KOOTENAI COUNTY HOUSING MARKET IN 2007

  • Back to the Future
  • The Rise and Fall of the Housing Market
  • It’s A Long Flight to the Train Station
residential history 2001
Residential History: 2001-
  • 2003
  • median incomes and wealth higher
  • strong immigration
  • household growth and housing investment
  • finding affordable housing.
  • record breaking year
  • 2000
  • home price inflation
  • net worth income growth
  • affordability remained in check
  • home sales,
  • homeownership
  • residential construction
  • all set new records in 1999
  • 2001
  • uncertainty of the economy
  • rising home prices
  • housing affordability remains the greatest concern
  • 30 percent of their income on housing
  • housing sector strong
  • prices and rose faster than inflation
  • homeownership set yet another record
  • falling interest rates
  • 2002
  • emerging from recession
  • housing sector continues resilience
  •  rock-solid home prices
  •  historically low mortgage interest rates
  •  build home equity at astounding rates.
  • gains realized better houses.
  • added mortgage debt
residential history2001
Residential: History2001-
  • 2005
  • difficult for first-time buyers
  • rising tide of housing wealth
  • consumer spending boost
  • low mortgage interest rates,
  • house price gains
  • near-record cash-out refinances and
  • record home equity borrowing
  • construction far exceeds long run demand
  • 2004
  • Construction activity strong
  • The housing boom
  • finance crisis in 1998
  • economic recession in 2001,
  • job losses in 2002–3.
  • low interest rates
  • home prices and sales climb
  • home values generate wealth
  • sustain consumer spending
  • records again in 2004
  • homeownership posted an all-time high
  • 2006
  • affordability problems
  • higher prices
  • rising interest rates
  • price appreciation slowed
  • investor demand plummeted sales
  • single-family starts drop off
  • 2007
  • subprime default rates
  • vacant homes for sale, and
  • buyers waiting on the sidelines to see
  • if prices drift lower
  • threat of recession- back to 2001
slide9

Kootenai Residential “Diversity”

(2007 Sales)

Single Family

Waterfront Home

Single Family Home

< 1.0 acres

Condo/townhouse

71%

7%

3%

Single Family

Waterfront Secondary

Single Family Home

on Acreage

Other

1%

7%

9%

active vs sold by price range
Active vs. Sold by Price Range

06’ = 3125

07’ =2691

2707

slide16

The Factors - 2007

Interest rates - 6.3% to 6.6 to 6.2

Sub Prime lending issues

GDP 2.1 % to 4.9% to -0.1%

Consumer Price Index -2.1% to 6.0% to 4.4%

Unemployment 4.5% to 4.8%

slide17

THE “NATIONAL” SCENE

…OVERALL PICTURE GLUM, NO RELIEF IN SIGHT

12 YEAR LOW FOR HOME SALES….

EXISTING HOME SALES… 5TH HIGHEST ON RECORD….

WAITING FOR RATE CUTS…

DECLINE IN EXISTING HOME PRICES….

RATES DOWN….

CONSUMERS WAITING FOR RIGHT TIME…

REFINANCE ACTIVITY UP….

UMEMPLOYMENT AT 2 YEAR HIGH….

PENDING HOME SALES INDEX DOWN….

RECESSION…???

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KEY INDICATORS OF THE HOUSING MARKET

BUYER/SELLER RATIOS

AVERAGE TIME ON MARKET

HOME BUYER ACTIVITY

ASKING VS. SALES PRICE

MULTIPLE OFFERS

ANNUAL PRICE APPRECIATION

HOUSING AVAILABILITY

key points to take home
Key Points to Take Home
  • ALL -Pay attention to the data where it and what is actually doing . . .not just what the media is saying. We have multiple markets.
  • Sellers – time on market, inventory, list to sale %, buyer activity
  • Buyers – inventories, days on market, mortgage apps, prices rise, list to sale %
  • REALTOR’S ® And lender must be much, much closer. Develop a team of experts
slide22

KOOTENAI COUNTY HOUSING MARKET IN 2007

  • Back to the Future
  • The Rise and Fall of the Housing Market
  • It’s A Long Flight to the Train Station
slide24

FOR MORE DETAILS AND SPECIFIC KOOTENAI COUNTY AND SURROUNDING AREA STATISTICS, and THE NATIONAL HOUSING MARKETS

GO TO

WWW.CDAREALTORS.COM

or

www.jchs.harvard.edu

Have a great day….

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