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Northeast Wisconsin Economy ASQ November 14, 2005. Al Hartman Dean College of Business UW Oshkosh. Historical Perspective. Dr. David J Ward Northstar Economics. THE ECONOMIC STRUCTURE OF THE U.S. AND WISCONSIN IS CHANGING. EVOLUTION OF ECONOMIC PROSPERITY. 19 th Century –

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Northeast Wisconsin EconomyASQ November 14, 2005

Al Hartman

Dean

College of Business

UW Oshkosh


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Historical Perspective

Dr. David J Ward

Northstar Economics


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THE

ECONOMIC STRUCTUREOF THE

U.S. AND WISCONSIN

IS CHANGING.


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EVOLUTION OF

ECONOMIC PROSPERITY

  • 19th Century –

    • Bigger and Better Farms

  • 20th Century –

    • Bigger and Better Factories

  • 21st Century –

    • Bigger and Better Ideas


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(% SHARE)

Other (Retail, Construction, Government, etc.)

Private Services

Manufacturing

Agriculture

YEAR

U.S. SECTOR EMPLOYMENT TRENDS


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LOSS OF MANUFACTURING JOBS 1995-2002

  • BRAZIL 20%

  • JAPAN 16%

  • CHINA 15% (98 Million Jobs)

  • U.S. 11%

  • WISCONSIN 14% (80,000 Jobs)

Source: Alliance Capital Management; DWD

Source: Alliance Capital Management, DWD


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THE NEW ECONOMIC EQUATION

IN A KNOWLEDGE-BASED ECONOMY

BRAIN

POWER

EARNING

POWER

=


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THE EARNINGS GAP HAS WIDENEDREAL $ TERMS

= 2001 Dollars Source: US Census Bureau


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WISCONSIN

IS FALLING BEHIND IN A NUMBER OF ECONOMIC MEASURES


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THE BRAIN DRAINNET MIGRATION OF COLLEGE GRADUATES

* Population data revised by the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

Source: fedgazettte, January 2003, citing Postsecondary Education Opportunities


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POPULATION WITH 4-YEAR DEGREEAGE 25 OR OLDER

Source: U.S. Department of Education, 2002


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PER CAPITA INCOME

Source: U.S. Census Bureau


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PERSONAL INCOME PER CAPITA OFTHE U.S., MINNESOTA, AND WISCONSIN

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis


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Source: Pricewaterhouse Coopers / Venture Economics / National Venture Capital Association

Money Tree Survey

VENTURE CAPITAL DISBURSEMENTS


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HIGH TECH JOBS

State Rankings

  • Minnesota 7th

  • Wisconsin 31st

Source: State New Economy Index, 2002


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UNLESS WE CHANGE

THE CURRENT

ECONOMIC STRUCTURE,

THE FUTURE

ECONOMIC RESULTS

WILL NOT CHANGE.


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PAST AND FUTUREINCOME GROWTH

Source: Standards & Poor’s / DRI Forecast


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PER CAPITA INCOMEFORECAST IN 2024

* 83% of U.S. average


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* States rank in the bottom 10 of PPI rankings. Only Idaho and Utah are in the top half.

STATES AT 83% OR LESS OFU.S PER CAPITA INCOME

  • Montana

  • Arkansas*

  • New Mexico

  • West Virginia*

  • Mississippi*

  • Idaho

  • Kentucky*

  • Oklahoma

  • Alabama*

  • Utah

  • Louisiana*


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Source: Indiana Fiscal Policy Institute

COULD IT HAPPENTO WISCONSIN?


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LOW INCOME GROWTH LEADS TO :

GRADUAL DETERIORATION OF ECONOMIC

CONDITION AND QUALITY OF LIFE

  • Lower per capita income

  • Decreased tax base / Budget deficits

  • Lower bond ratings

  • Decreased school funding and teacher salaries

  • Less public services

  • Lower quality of life


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GROSS STATE PRODUCT GROWTHMINNESOTA VS. WISCONSIN

Gross State Product in Billions of Current Dollars

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis


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WISCONSIN EMPLOYMENT

MANUFACTURING


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WISCONSIN NEEDS

TO CREATE

A HIGH GROWTH ECONOMY.


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CREATING THE NEW FUTURE

A HIGH GROWTH ECONOMY

“IMAGINATION IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN KNOWLEDGE.”

Albert Einstein


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A WILD GAMBLE:MARCH 1872

  • 2 millers

  • 1 hardware dealer

  • 1 traveling salesman

  • 1 flour mill

  • Funds from family and friends

  • Technology


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Source: Factories in the Valley,

State Historical Society, 1969

THE PAPER INDUSTRY GROWSIN THE FOX RIVER VALLEY

  • 1872 Kimberly Clark

  • 1874 Patten Paper Co.

  • 1874 Winnebago Paper Co.

  • 1876 Menasha Paper Co.

  • 1878 Atlas Paper Co.

  • Payoff: The Wisconsin Paper Industry

  • 55,000 high paying jobs


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NEW ECONOMIC DRIVERS

  • Brain Power

  • Technology

  • Venture Capital and High-Tech Startups

  • Research and Development

  • Quality of Life


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WE NEED A HIGH-GROWTH

ECONOMIC STRATEGY

HIGH-GROWTH ECONOMIES

ARE BUILT ON BRAIN POWER

AND NEW IDEAS.


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VISION 2020:A MODEL

WISCONSIN

ECONOMY

Published by the Wisconsin Technology Council

Funded by Mason Wells Private Equity

Economic Research by NorthStar Economics


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ANGEL INVESTING GROUPS

IN WISCONSIN

8

6

7

Wisconsin Investment Partners, LLC Madison

Early Stage Research Madison

Silicon Pastures Milwaukee

Origin Investment Group, LLC La Crosse

Golden Angels Network Milwaukee

Chippewa Valley Angel Network Eau Claire

Marshfield Investment Partners, LLC Marshfield

St. Croix Valley Angel Network, Inc. River Falls

4

2

3

1

5


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REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT

COOPERATION AND ACTION

  • Momentum Chippewa Valley

  • TechStar / Southeastern Wisconsin

  • 7 Rivers Region / Tri-State (WI, MN, IA)

  • NEW Economic Opportunity Study

  • Technology Zone Partnerships

  • Regional WIN Chapters


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  • David J. Ward, Ph.D., President

  • Phone: (608) 279-3393

  • Email: [email protected]

  • Fax: (608) 441-8064

  • Web:www.northstareconomics.com



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NEW CORE

  • Coalition on Regional Economy

  • Study conducted

  • Set of initiatives created and assigned

  • Wisconsin Innovation Network – Northeast

  • Inventors Network

  • Intellectual Assets Network

  • Angel fund


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UW Oshkosh

  • Entrepreneurship Emphasis started-1990

  • E-seed program initiated – 2000

  • Venture Center – UW Oshkosh/Fox Valley Technical College - 2005

  • Federal Support for Competitive Manufacturing through Innovation Management (pending) - 2006



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