フィードバック管理
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フィードバック管理 と資源評価. 松石隆先生、菅野泰治先生、西村欣也先生はじめ北大の皆様に感謝. Feedback Management. Uncertainty in stock assessment Accountability Dynamic change in abundance Adaptability (tuning catch effort) Successive Monitoring!!!. Revised Management Procedure (RMP) in IWC.

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Slide1 l.jpg
フィードバック管理と資源評価

松石隆先生、菅野泰治先生、西村欣也先生はじめ北大の皆様に感謝


Feedback management l.jpg
Feedback Management

  • Uncertainty in stock assessment

    • Accountability

  • Dynamic change in abundance

    • Adaptability (tuning catch effort)

  • Successive Monitoring!!!


Revised management procedure rmp in iwc l.jpg
Revised Management Procedure (RMP) in IWC

  • Moratorium of commercial whaling since 1982 (until RMP?)

  • RMP was adopted in 1994, but has not yet enforced.


Feedback management for sika deer in hokkaido japan l.jpg
Feedback Management for Sika deer in Hokkaido, Japan

試される大地

http://www.marimo.or.jp/Kushiro_shichou/ezosika/


Density dependent hunting pressure adaptability l.jpg
Density-dependent hunting pressure (adaptability)

%P>50%: Emergent Decrease (<4 years)

25% < %P : Gradual Decrease

5% < %P : Gradual Increase

%P <5% or after the severe winter: Ban-on-Hunting

Hokkaido, tested land


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Stage-Structured Model

sika deer has little densityeffect and I ignored

Nc, Nf, Nm: No. of calves(0.5), females & males(≧1.5)

Lfc(t)= Lmc(t)= exp[-Q(t)Hc(t)]exp[-Mc(t)]exp[-Rc(t+1)],

Lff(t) = exp[-Q(t)Hf(t)]exp[-Mf(t)]exp[-Rf(t+1)] ,

Lmm(t) = exp[-Q(t)Hm(t)]exp[-Mm(t)]exp[-Rm(t+1)] ,

Hokkaido, tested land


Risk management l.jpg
Risk Management

We set the upper and lower limit (%P- & %P+) of population size P such that, within the next 1 century,

Prob{P<1000 individuals} < 1%

Prob{%P<%P- or %P> %P+} < 5%.

Therefore, %P- 5%, %P+ 50%

Hokkaido, tested land

2


Population indices l.jpg
Population Indices

  • Catch & Watch per hunter day

  • Spotlight census

  • Helicopter census

  • Train accidents

  • Damage of agriculture & forestry

    • Uncertainty of absolute size

Hokkaido, tested land

3


Population index by spotlight census for eastern hokkaido l.jpg
Population index by spotlight census for eastern Hokkaido

Population estimationhas large uncertainty

Hokkaido, tested land


Fallacy of 120 000 deer hypothesis l.jpg
Fallacy of 120 000 deer hypothesis

  • >30000 deer were killed every year since 1995

  • Male deer is still abundant

  • Natural growth rate is 15-20%

  • Population began to decrease?

  • 160-240 thousand deer in 1993

Hokkaido, tested land


Rmp for south pacific minke whale l.jpg
RMP for south Pacific minke whale

  • Pt+1-Pt = r[1-(Pt /K)z]Pt-Ct

    • think uncertainty in r, K, Pt /K and Pt (relative and absolute P)

    • no age structure

    • ignore uncertainty in z (density-effect)


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IWC/SC concensus

  • 2000 minke whale is commercially exploitable.

  • Catch Limit is determined by

    Lt=2.12r (Pt /K-0.54)Pt

  • Scientific whaling catches now 400!



Recent iwc sower census data suggests l.jpg
Recent IWC (SOWER) census data suggests

  • Minke whale population is 30%-70% as was in ca1990.

  • Anti-whaling NGO may think “Whaling is over”.

  • Japan Gov’t may think “this census is uncertain…”


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Why do minke whale decrease?

  • Artifact in monitoring

  • Ecosystem change

    • Short resource (krill)

    • Competition with other whales

  • Super-Compensation


Artifact hypothesis l.jpg
“Artifact Hypothesis”

  • RMP is realizable only under effective monitoring;

  • Scientific whaling does not satisfy RMP.

  • Precautionary approach.

Commercial whaling isCritically Endangered


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Competition hypothesis

  • Competition decreases

    • Recruitment or fecundity?

    • Adult mortality?

  • Why did the minke whale increase in the 1980s?


Super compensation l.jpg
Super-Compensation

  • Demographic Momentumdue to drastic change in catch effort from the 1970 to 1990,

  • Age structure changed greatly.

  • Same phenomenon as southern bluefin tuna



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Demographic Momentum by a Leslie type Model

  • Age at maturity = 11years

  • Moratorium in t=0

  • RMP begin in t=30

  • Tune recruitment,>Tune total stock.

  • Monitor age structure!!!

  • Scientific Whaling is useful


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Conclusion

  • Feedback management should investigate stock size and age structure.

  • Temporal decrease of minke whale may be explained by demographic momentum.


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