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Russia: A Major Player or Not?

Russia: A Major Player or Not? . Pravco September 2002. In 1970, Airbus Did Not Exist, Today They Have Over 50% Market Share . Who will be the next “Airbus”? The manufacturers from Russia, China and India?.

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Russia: A Major Player or Not?

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  1. Russia: A Major Player or Not? Pravco September 2002

  2. In 1970, Airbus Did Not Exist, Today They Have Over 50% Market Share • Who will be the next “Airbus”? • The manufacturers from Russia, China and India?

  3. Is there a market for RussianDesigned and ManufacturedCommercial Aircraft?

  4. Why would the World Airlines purchase a Russian Aircraft? • Pricing is a third to half of the western aircraft. • Russian aircraft use western engine and avionic packages. • Newly Emerging Markets and western freight carriers will be the first purchasers. • Russian aircraft are in the process of receiving FAA and JAA certifications.

  5. New Programs RRJ Sukhoi/Boeing Be-200 Beriev Tu-334 Tupolev An-148 Antonov MTR- Ilyushin/HAL Existing Programs AN-74 Antonov Il-96 Ilyushin Tu-204 Tupolev Tu-214 Tupolev Production Facilities Aviastar -Tu-204 Irkutsk - BE-200 Kazan -Tu-214 Kharkov– An-74 Kharkov -An-148 Mig/Aviant -Tu-334 Novosibirsk -RRJ Voronezh -Il-96 Russian Commercial Aircraft Programs and Production

  6. RRJ Sukhoi 55-95 Passenger

  7. Russian Regional JetSukhoi/Boeing/Ilyushin • Three models- RRJ55, RRJ75 and RRJ95 • Sukhoi is the design project leader • Ilyushin will provide Russian civil certification • Boeing will provide marketing, leasing, and assistance in design and FAA certification • Novosibirsk is the probable production site • Pricing is targeted to be 20% lower than western manufacturers

  8. Beriev BE-200 Waterbomber

  9. Be-200/Irkutsk • Two versions • Waterbomber (first deliveries in Russia) • Passenger (65 seater). • First serial production units in assembly • Currently being manually assembled. • Scheduled to receive JAA certification by the end of 2003

  10. Tupolev TU-334 100 Passenger

  11. TU-334/MIG • Rosaviakosmos will fund the certification testing. • 100 passenger jet. • Prototype in Russian certification testing. • Co-production lines • Mig (Moscow) • Aviant (Ukraine) • Selling price is $18 million with Russian engines.

  12. Antonov An-148 80 Passenger

  13. An-148/Kharkov • Antonov Design Bureau in Kiev Ukraine • Final assembly at Kharkov Aviation Plant (Ukraine) • Final assembly at Ulan-Ude Production (Russia) • Three prototypes are currently being built • Selling price is between $15-20 million

  14. MTR Multi Role TransportIlyushin Design Bureau and Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd.

  15. Multi Role Transport/HAL • Two versions • 100 passenger jet • Military cargo • Design and Production • Ilyushin Design Bureau (Moscow) is designing the aircraft. • India will invest $300 million into the program and sent up a production line at Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd.

  16. Antonov An-74 50 Passenger

  17. An-74 /Kharkov • Kharkov plant in the Ukraine will be the final assembly site. • Three versions-passenger, cargo, combi. • Aeroflot recently purchased 25 aircraft through the Ilyushin Finance Group. • Risk sharing joint venture between Antonov, Motor Sich, Ulan-Ude and Kharkov.

  18. Ilyushin Il-96 280 Passenger

  19. Il-96/Voronezh • Produced at the Voronezh facility. • Received FAA certification for the cargo version. • Western engines and avionics (17 US suppliers) • Low production rate (less 10 aircraft/year) • Selling Price is $70 million ($43 million US content)

  20. Tupolev TU-204 170 Passenger

  21. Tu-204/Aviastar • Currently undergoing JAA certification which will be completed in 2003. • Installed modern western machine tools for fuselage and wing production. • Sirocco has recently invested in $280 million. • China purchased 10 Tu-204. • TNT cargo (Belgium) took delivery of three Tu-204’s • Selling price is $25 million.

  22. Tupolev TU-214 -200 Passenger

  23. Tu-214/Kazan • Kazan is the production facility • Tu-214 production • Possible Airbus fuselage production • Low serial production plans in the next year. • Installed modern western machine tools for fuselage and wing production. • Selling price range $25 to $30 million.

  24. Russian Regional Jet BE-200 Waterbomber Tu-204 passenger IL-96 An-74 An-148 Tu-334 FAA JAA JAA FAA Russian Russian Russian Russian Aircraft Certification Russian AP-25 Type certification is similar to FAR Part 25

  25. Comparison of Aircraft Models

  26. Russian Alliances • Airbus has partnered with Kaskol to manage $2.1 billion in future Airbus subcontracting packages. • Boeing has 300 Russian engineers in their Moscow Technical Center. • Russia and China have signed an agreement for co-production of commercial aircraft. • Other western aircraft manufacturers are exploring joint ventures in Russia.

  27. Conclusions • Russian commercial aircraft will gain worldwide acceptance with western certifications. • Access to global maintenance centers will assist in the selling of Russian Commercial Aircraft. • First out of country customers will be “old Soviet bloc trading partners” and western freight carriers. • Western manufacturers will continue to expand their presence in Russia on a sub assembly level.

  28. www.pravco.com • Download-Ph.D. dissertation titled “Globalization of Commercial Aircraft Production: Implications for US Based Manufacturing Activity” • Download-paper titled “The International Decentralization of US Commercial Aircraft Production: Implications for US Employment and Trade”-Canada-United States Trade Center

  29. Research and Service - Canada-United States Trade Center, University at Buffalo, Occasional Paper No. 26, 2002, “The International Decentralization of US Commercial Aircraft Production: Implications for US Employment and Trade”. - Office of Aerospace - International Trade Administration- U.S. Department of Commerce, briefings on Russian Commercial Aircraft Manufacturing and European Commercial Aircraft Production Processes, 2002 - Presidential Commission on the Future of the US Aerospace Industry, submitted research on industrial offsets and new global emerging aircraft programs, 2001. - International Journal of Aerospace Management, October 2001. “Globalization of Commercial Aircraft Production: Implications to US Based Manufacturing Activity”.

  30. Research and Service - House of Representatives Subcommittee on Aviation, submitted research on Global Aircraft Production, 2001 - Speednews Aviation Conference, March 2001, “Globalization of Commercial Aircraft Production: Russian and Chinese Capabilities” - Presidential Offsets Commission, submitted research on Russian and Chinese Aircraft Manufacturing sector, 2000.

  31. Contact Information David J Pritchard Ph.D. 210 Sagewood Terrace Williamsville, NY 14221 USA Telephone/Telefax 716-632-5657 (USA) E-mail: davidjpritchard@adelphia.net Website: www.pravco.com

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